A new international study has projected that the global construction sector’s carbon footprint could be doubled by 2050, threatening to derail efforts to meet the Paris Agreement climate targets.
In 2022, over 55% of the construction industry’s carbon emissions stemmed from cementitious materials, bricks, and metals, while glass, plastics, chemicals, and bio-based materials contributed 6%, and the remaining 37% arose from transport, services, machinery, and on-site activities, according to the study.
Lead author Chaohui Li from Peking University summarizes: “The study shows that the construction sector now drives one-third of global CO₂ emissions, up from around 20% in 1995. If current trends continue, the sector can exceed the 2°C per annum carbon budget by 2040.”
Based on past data, different future emission scenarios were projected. Under the business-as-usual scenario, the construction carbon footprint alone will exceed the per-annum carbon budget for the 1.5°C and 2°C goals in the next two decades, not considering other industries.
“Between 2023 and 2050, cumulative construction-related emissions are expected to reach 440 gigatons of CO₂. This is enough to consume the entire remaining global carbon budget for 1.5°C,” explains coauthor Prajal Pradhan, a professor at the University of Groningen in the Netherlands.
The study shows a significant shift in emissions from developed to developing regions. In 1995, high-income countries produced half of construction emissions.
According to the study, by 2022, emissions in these economies had largely stabilized, while growth in developing regions was increasingly driven by reliance on carbon-intensive materials such as steel and cement. At the same time, the use of bio-based materials such as timber has declined, underscoring a missed opportunity for low-carbon alternatives.
Meanwhile, the authors have called for a global “material revolution” – a fundamental shift away from carbon-intensive building materials toward low-carbon, circular, and bio-based alternatives such as engineered timber, bamboo, and recycled composites. Their analysis shows that cementitious materials, bricks and metals alone now account for more than half of the sector’s emissions, emphasizing the urgent need to reinvent how the world builds.
“The challenges and solutions for decarbonizing construction are not globally uniform. Tipping full supply-chain-scale changes ultimately requires structural shifts material-wise, reducing reliance on traditional materials like cement, steel, and bricks, while exploring new alternatives,” explains coauthor Jurgen Kropp from the Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research (PIK).
“Humanity has literally built itself into a corner with steel and cement,” says IIASA Director General Hans Joachim (John) Schellnhuber. “To meet the Paris goals, we must reinvent the very materials that shape our cities. A global material revolution rooted in circularity, innovation, and cooperation can turn the construction sector from a climate problem into a cornerstone of a sustainable and resilient future.”
