It has been exactly one month since the GenZ protests toppled the KP Sharma Oli-led government, marking one of the most dramatic political shifts in Nepal’s recent history. Following Oli’s resignation at 2 pm on Sept 9, the country drifted into nearly nine hours of stateless uncertainty until 10:30 pm, when the Nepal Army assumed temporary command over both security and political affairs to prevent further chaos.
Over the next three days, the Army facilitated a series of intense negotiations between President Ramchandra Paudel and the GenZ protest leaders, as well as with senior figures from major political parties. These discussions, though tense and at times inconclusive, culminated in what was presented as a constitutional way out of the crisis. On Sept 12— just three days after the violent clashes that led to at least 74 deaths including 19 students—an interim government was formed under former Chief Justice Sushila Karki, with a six-month mandate to hold national elections.
Breaking from our usual editorial format, this issue takes stock of the major political shifts, emerging power struggles, and societal undercurrents that have defined the past month.
Interim government’s mandate
Immediately after being sworn in as interim Prime Minister, Karki dissolved Parliament and announced that fresh national elections would be held on March 5 next year. Her initial cabinet appointments signaled a desire for technocratic competence and public trust: senior advocate Om Prakash Aryal was named Home Minister, and former Finance Secretary Rameshwar Khanal was appointed Finance Minister.
On Sept 25, Karki delivered her first national address, delineating the priorities and limitations of her caretaker administration. She firmly stated that no constitutional amendment would take place before the elections. The interim government, she stressed, exists to ensure a smooth and credible transition, not to embark on structural reforms. She further noted that the more fundamental demands of the GenZ movement, such as constitutional reform and a shift in the system of governance, fall outside its temporary jurisdiction.
Since then, Karki has reiterated that her government’s single overriding priority is to hold elections on time. To this end, she has maintained close coordination with the Election Commission and pledged full logistical support. On Oct 8, while addressing Nepali ambassadors abroad, she underscored the importance of securing international backing to guarantee the timely and credible conduct of the polls.
This clarity of focus has won her cautious support across various quarters. In our view as well, ensuring free, fair, and timely elections remains the most responsible course of action amid the current volatility.
The chances of holding elections, however, are becoming increasingly challenging, as the CPN-UML has demanded the restoration of Parliament, and the Nepali Congress is likely to follow suit. Soon after the dissolution of Parliament, political parties collectively opposed the move.
Fragile law and order
The law and order situation remains precarious. During the Sept 8–9 protests, the Nepal Police bore the brunt of the violence. Protesters looted weapons and uniforms, assaulted officers, and torched several police posts, while other security forces largely stood aside. Though police operations have slowly resumed, morale remains low and resources stretched thin.
Differences between the cabinet and security chiefs persist over how to handle investigations into the killings, arson, and widespread destruction of both public and private property. The government has formed a judicial inquiry commission led by former judge Gauri Bahadur Karki to investigate the protest-related violence and the deaths.
However, distrust between protestors and the state remains deep.
GenZ demonstrators have filed formal complaints demanding the immediate arrest of former Prime Minister KP Sharma Oli, former Home Minister Ramesh Lekhak, and several senior officials allegedly implicated in the killings. In retaliation, youth wings of major political parties have lodged a case against Kathmandu Mayor Balendra Shah and Sudan Gurung, accusing them of inciting unrest. This tit-for-tat exchange has created an atmosphere of mutual hostility, threatening to reignite street confrontations and deepen the crisis.
While Prime Minister Karki and her cabinet have publicly supported the idea of holding those responsible accountable, security chiefs have advised restraint, warning that premature arrests could destabilize an already fragile order. Acting on the inquiry commission’s recommendations, the government has restricted the foreign and domestic travel of Oli, Lekhak, and several high-ranking officials, requiring them to seek permission before leaving the Kathmandu Valley. The commission is expected to summon Oli for questioning in the coming days.
Fragmented GenZ
A month after their political triumph, the GenZ movement is showing signs of fragmentation. Dozens of splinter groups have emerged, advancing competing visions for Nepal’s political future. Some factions demand the complete dismantling of the current constitution and a shift toward a directly elected presidential system, while others argue for preserving the constitutional framework but reforming its implementation. Several groups are reportedly planning renewed street demonstrations to press forth their respective demands.
Observers note that these divisions have made the movement vulnerable to political co-option, as various GenZ factions begin aligning themselves with different established parties and agendas.
Private sector’s anxiety
Beyond the political turbulence, Nepal’s economic outlook has sharply deteriorated. The private sector has warned that continued impunity and instability could paralyze business recovery. Tourism, contributing nearly seven percent of the GDP, has been among the hardest-hit sectors, with hotel occupancy plunging from 70 percent before the protests to around 30 percent afterward. The World Bank now projects Nepal’s growth rate to fall from an estimated five percent to around two percent this fiscal year.
Despite the grim outlook, the interim government’s fiscal restraint and efficiency measures have earned praise. The decision to curtail unnecessary public spending has been well received, and the government’s proactive disaster preparedness during recent floods and landslides has drawn commendation for saving lives through effective coordination among agencies.
Corruption and accountability
Fighting corruption was one of the GenZ movement’s core demands. However, the interim administration faces both constitutional and procedural obstacles in creating new anti-corruption mechanisms. The Commission for the Investigation of Abuse of Authority (CIAA) is under intense public scrutiny, with its chief, Prem Kumar Rai, facing mounting calls to resign. Protestors accuse the CIAA of protecting the political elite rather than prosecuting them.
Shifts in external relations
Internationally, Nepal’s political transition has been met with cautious engagement. Key development partners and regional powers, including India, Japan, and the European Union, have expressed readiness to support both the upcoming elections and post-crisis reconstruction. China, however, has remained conspicuously silent.
Diplomatic circles were abuzz after the Dalai Lama sent a congratulatory message to the Karki-led government, a gesture that has unsettled Beijing and stirred debate in Kathmandu about Nepal’s delicate balancing act between competing global interests. Prime Minister Karki has yet to appoint a Foreign Minister, but her government has made it clear that foreign relations will prioritize stability, credibility, and election support.
Political parties in flux
In the wake of the GenZ uprising, Nepal’s traditional political establishment has entered a period of introspection and disarray. Many senior leaders went underground during the peak of the protests, wary of the public backlash.
Among the major parties, the CPN (Maoist Center) was the first to react by dissolving its Central Working Committee and forming a General Convention Organizing Committee under Pushpa Kamal Dahal. The Maoists have since positioned themselves as sympathetic to the GenZ demands for systemic reform, particularly the idea of a directly elected president. At the same time, they are strategically maneuvering to benefit from the waning popularity of the Nepali Congress (NC) and CPN-UML.
The Nepali Congress remains indecisive. Party President Sher Bahadur Deuba is still undergoing medical treatment, leaving the party effectively leaderless. Younger leaders like Gagan Thapa and Bishwa Prakash Sharma have apologized for the party’s failures and launched a signature campaign calling for an extraordinary convention to replace the old guard. Yet senior figures such as Prakash Sharan Mahat, Prakash Man Singh, and Purna Bahadur Khadka have resisted, arguing that internal leadership changes could weaken the party ahead of elections. Whether the NC will contest the polls or push for the restoration of the dissolved Parliament remains uncertain.
Within the CPN-UML, Chairman KP Sharma Oli has rejected internal calls to resign, declaring in a virtual address to district chairs that he will lead the party “as long as I have the strength, conviction, and clarity of vision.” The UML views the GenZ movement as a foreign-orchestrated attempt to weaken Nepal’s sovereignty, particularly blaming Western actors. The party now appears to favor reinstating Parliament and has dismissed the findings of the judicial inquiry commission.
The Rastriya Swatantra Party, Nepal’s fourth-largest political force, is similarly mired in internal conflict. The GenZ uprising has intensified scrutiny of party chairman Rabi Lamichhane’s unresolved legal cases. The resignation of senior leader Sumana Shrestha has exposed deep fractures within the party, dashing earlier hopes that it could capitalize on the disillusionment with traditional parties.
Civil society’s renewed voice
Over the past year Nepal’s civil society has reasserted itself as a moral and political force. In the wake of the GenZ protests, prominent intellectuals, journalists, and activists have called for the old political class to make way for new leadership. They also urged the government and parties to ensure a peaceful environment for credible elections.
Civil society’s growing engagement reflects a broader sentiment shared across the country: while the GenZ protests succeeded in disrupting the old order, the difficult task of rebuilding public trust, democratic accountability, and institutional integrity has only just begun.
During the protests, mainstream media were targeted, severely limiting their ability to report independently. Amid a climate of impunity and fear, many Nepali journalists have resorted to self-censorship. Despite these constraints, the media continue to play a vital role in holding those in power accountable.
