ApEx Newsletter (Oct 8): Oli, NC, Election, and Geopolitics

KP Sharma Oli has made it clear that he is not planning to step down as party chair in the near future. This comes despite calls from the public and party leaders to hand over the leadership to the new generation.

In a Zoom meeting with the party’s district presidents, the head of CPN-UML said that what happened on September 8–9 was a conspiracy against him, his party, and ultimately the country. “Though I am kicked out of power, I am continuously working for the party and country,” said Oli.

Even the top leaders of the party want to see Oli continue as leader. Within the UML, leader Mahesh Basnet has been vocal against the government and the Zen-Z protestors. Other top leaders—except General Secretary Shankar Pokhrel, who frequently expresses his opinion on Facebook—have remained silent.

Meanwhile, the Nepali Congress is preparing to hold a series of meetings in the coming weeks. Party President Sher Bahadur Deuba, who has yet to appear in public after being attacked by protestors on September 9, has called a meeting of the party’s senior leaders to discuss the agenda for the Central Working Committee, which will convene soon. The CWC meeting is likely to clarify the party’s position on elections and the restoration of democracy.

Deuba is also expected to appoint Purna Bahadur Khadka as acting party president in response to the Zen-Z protests. Party General Secretaries Gagan Kumar Thapa and Bishwa Prakash Sharma have initiated a signature campaign demanding a special general convention of the party. However, this move is being opposed by second-tier leaders aligned with Deuba, who are attempting to block Thapa’s rise to party leadership.

Amid fears of another wave of Zen-Z protests and possible clashes with youth organizations of major political parties, the Ministry of Home Affairs has issued an appeal for dialogue and negotiation. It has urged protestors to express their agendas through civil, dignified, and peaceful means.

Meanwhile, media reports suggest that the chiefs of security agencies and the Home Minister have differing opinions on how to proceed against those involved in the killing of 19 students on September 8 and the vandalism and arson the next day. A group of Zen-Z protestors is demanding the arrest of Oli and his Home Minister Ramesh Lekhak.

According to reports, Home Minister Aryal and Prime Minister Karki are in favor of arresting the leaders, while the heads of the security agencies believe that such action could further inflame tensions. It remains unclear whether the government will leave this matter to the probe committee or take direct action.

There are still fears that potential street protests could turn violent, especially as the morale of the security forces has declined. During the September 8–9 protests, the Nepali Police were a primary target—protestors looted their weapons and vandalized offices. Media reports indicate growing misunderstandings between the Home Minister and security officials on how to handle the situation. Tensions could rise further if clashes erupt between Zen-Z groups and youth wings of political parties.

In a new development, the Election Commission (EC) is preparing to hold consultations with major political parties regarding the upcoming elections. This is expected to create a more favorable environment for conducting the elections. Earlier, the EC had faced criticism for preparing unilaterally without consulting the parties. The EC will hold talks with political leaders on October 16.

Separately, Prime Minister Sushila Karki has assured the EC that the government is ready to provide logistical support to conduct the elections. Two major parties—Nepali Congress and CPN-UML—are quietly preparing to file a case in the Supreme Court demanding the restoration of the dissolved Parliament. In the current fragile political climate, a possible court-ordered restoration of Parliament cannot be ruled out. If the case moves forward, it could impact the election environment.

Prime Minister Sushila Karki has briefed Nepali ambassadors abroad on the foreign policy priorities of her government. She instructed the ambassadors to coordinate with relevant organizations to ensure the success of the elections. “We will inform you separately and soon if we need to request special technical support from a friendly country,” said Karki.

She also mentioned that homework is underway on whether Nepali citizens temporarily living abroad can vote in the upcoming elections. In her policy paper, Karki discussed the current geopolitical situation and Nepal’s economic diplomacy. Unlike previous prime ministers, she did not emphasize that the new government’s priority is immediate neighbors India and China.

UN Resident Coordinator Hanaa Singer Hamdy met with PM Karki to reaffirm the United Nations’ strong partnership with Nepal. According to the UN Nepal office, the discussions highlighted shared priorities: credible and inclusive elections in 2026, advancing transitional justice, promoting good governance, tackling misinformation, and sustaining progress toward graduation from Least Developed Country (LDC) status. “The UN remains committed to supporting Nepal’s democratic journey and the aspirations of its people for peace, justice, and prosperity,” the office said.

In sum, it appears the government is focused on holding elections on time.

Kamal Dev Bhattarai 

Editor