Though geographically the largest of 77 districts in Nepal, Dolpa is one of its most remote and inaccessible due to its mountainous and hilly terrain. According to the Dolpa District Administration Office, only 0.31 percent of the total area is arable land, and just nine percent of that cultivated land has irrigation facilities. During winter, the entire landscape is blanketed in snow, making agriculture unproductive. The district can only produce enough grain to last for about five months, forcing residents to depend on rice brought in from other districts.
While Dolpa lags behind other districts in every human development index, it is ahead in one aspect: its abundant and valuable medicinal herbs. The Dolpa Division Forest Office reports that the highly-prized yarsagumba, which sells for millions of rupees per kilogram, is found in greater quantities in Dolpa than in any other district in Nepal.
Bishnu Bahadur Rokaya from Lahara village of Thuli Bheri Municipality-3, earned up to Rs 3.2m from a single kilogram of yarsagumba last year. While the value of yarsagumba has been increasing annually, its production and collection have been declining.
Chhiring Lama, a local collector, says until a few years ago, a person could collect an average of 200 yarsas. Now, it’s difficult to find even 40 or 50. The usual collection season is May and June, but climate change has made the weather unpredictable.
“Sometimes it snows so much it buries people; and other times the snow melts before people can even get there. When the season starts, collectors who arrive early pick the young sprouts, which is also a problem,” says Lama.
According to the Karnali Province Forest Directorate, the quantity of yarsagumba found in the meadows of Karnali’s Humla, Jumla, Kalikot, Mugu, Dolpa, and Western Rukum districts has decreased, along with the revenue collected from it.
In the fiscal year 2022/23, the directorate collected Rs 12.74m in revenue from 411 kg of exported yarsagumba. The following fiscal year, this amount plummeted to Rs 5.94m with just 191 kg yarsagumba exported.
Data from previous years also show a gradual decrease: 306 kg in 2017/18, 301 kg in 2018/19, and just 291 kg in 2019/20 were exported from the five yarsagumba-producing districts of Karnali.
This decline was flagged by the Nepal Rastra Bank almost a decade ago. A 2015 survey on the impact of yarsagumba on the Nepali economy raised concerns about improper waste management at collection sites. The survey concluded that activities like indiscriminate logging, setting fires, and scattered waste from pack animals in yarsagumba habitats were having an adverse effect on the environment.
The presence of thousands of collectors who camp for weeks or even months negatively impacts the forest and national park environment. The survey also found that deforestation for temporary shelters and firewood, along with the clearing of ‘sunbuki’ grass (the main food source for the yarsagumba-producing larva), was contributing to the problem.
Disappearing indigenous crops
Climate change isn’t just threatening the valuable biological commodity like yarsagumba; It’s also causing the gradual disappearance of traditional indigenous crops cultivated in Upper Karnali. The production of nutritious, natural, and organic indigenous crops like chino, kaguno, millet, buckwheat, barley, latte, Marshe rice, local beans, and wheat has been steadily declining.
Krishna Jaisi, a farmer from Rodikot, Sarkegad Rural Municipality-7, Humla, vividly remembers when he would sell a few quintals of Marshe rice from his 3-bigha field in Surkhet. The nutrient-rich Marshe rice would last his family for a year, and selling the surplus helped support his household.
Today, Karnali’s agriculture, which traditionally relies on rainfall, is being devastated by drought, intermittent rainfall, and excessive rain. In addition, the increased growth of weeds and pests due to seasonal changes has become another major problem. The Agricultural Research Center in Dashrathpur, Surkhet, reports that indigenous crops are at risk due to changing weather patterns and an increase in various diseases and pests.
The directorate is currently testing over 200 different climate-resilient food crop varieties suitable for the soil in various Karnali districts. According to the center’s director, Devanidhi Tiwari, they are testing 37 new varieties of paddy, millet, maize, wheat, mustard, buckwheat, peanuts, and soybeans.
Bharat Budhathapa, a farmer from Jumla, says that since farming depends on traditional methods and rainfall, there’s no telling when excessive rain will destroy the crops or when a lack of rain will kill the seeds. He had started an apple farm with 4,000 saplings across 17,000 square meters, but on May 8 and 9, a two-day hailstorm destroyed his crops, causing an estimated loss of Rs 1.5m.
“As a commercial farmer, there’s no certainty for any crop, not just traditional rice,” he says. “Sometimes there’s no rain when you need it, and other times it pours day and night, making things miserable.”
No solutions, no plans
While climate change continues to destroy Karnali’s indigenous crops, the Karnali Provincial Government has created a special logo called ‘Mulyawan’ (Valuable) to brand and promote their value and significance. The province has officially listed chino, kaguno, barley, latte (marshe), buckwheat, Jumli Marshe, millet, and local beans as indigenous crops.
However, the province has no concrete plans, strategies, or budget to protect the native seeds in a climate-adaptive way. The first meeting of the Karnali Provincial Government’s Council of Ministers on 18 Feb 2017 decided to lay the foundation for organic agriculture and conserve indigenous crops, aiming to make Karnali an ‘Organic Province’. Based on this decision, the provincial government introduced the Organic Agriculture Act, 2018.
Despite this, the province has not created any specific climate-adaptive programs to make all its produce organic. According to Tara Baral, a ministry information officer, projects for the protection and promotion of organic and indigenous agriculture and livestock are conducted annually, but there are no plans or budgets specifically addressing climate change. However, he claims that the issue and problem of climate change are automatically addressed when focusing on organic and indigenous crop conservation.
Impact of climate change
According to the Department of Hydrology and Meteorology, Nepal's high Himalayan and high hill regions are experiencing changes not only in temperature but also in rainfall patterns. A 2017 report from the department indicates that rainfall in the high Himalayan region is decreasing at a rate of 1.46 millimeters per year. The high hill region is experiencing an even greater decline, with a drop of 3.17 millimeters per year. Department spokesperson Bibhuti Pokharel states that rainfall in the Himalayan districts is fluctuating.
Rasuwa district, for example, is seeing a decrease in the number of rainy days, dropping by 0.9 to 1.18 days per year. This suggests a decline of about 12 rainy days in a decade. Similarly, rain-shadow districts like Manang and Mustang are also experiencing fewer rainy days, with declines of 0.1 and 0.2 days per year, respectively. In contrast, rainy days are increasing in Mugu and Humla, with a rise of 0.9 and 1.0 days per year, respectively.
Continuous dry spells are also fluctuating in these districts. They are increasing in Rasuwa, Manang, and Mustang by 1.6, 0.3, and 0.3 days per year, respectively. However, according to meteorologist Sudarshan Humagain from the department’s Climate Analysis Branch, continuous dry days are decreasing by one day per year in Humla.
Rising temperatures and disaster risks
The Department of Hydrology and Meteorology reports that temperatures are rising in the Himalayan region. Maximum temperatures in the high Himalayas are increasing by 0.086 degrees Celsius per year. Temperatures in the high hills are also rising at the same rate. Department spokesperson Pokharel says with temperatures rising, small glacial lakes are beginning to burst. There is a risk of more explosions if the trend continues.
In the high Himalayan region, the winter temperature increase rate is 0.101 degrees Celsius. Meteorologists warn if this rate continues, the temperature will rise by 1 degree Celsius in a decade during winter. The temperature rise rate in the high hills during winter is 0.070 degrees Celsius. Rising temperatures in both the high Himalayan and high hill regions will ultimately affect all parts of the country.
Meanwhile, melting glaciers are also disrupting the climate cycle. With Nepal’s economy tied to the Himalayas, the negative effects of climate change are causing hills to become barren. The increased melting of snow due to rising temperatures is forming new glacial lakes, and the risk of them bursting is increasing.
According to Basant Raj Adhikari, director at the Disaster Studies Center at the Institute of Engineering, the frequency of glacial lake bursts is increasing. “While large glacial lakes like the Tsho Rolpa are being monitored due to the risk of explosion, smaller ones are being neglected,” he says.
Adhikari explains that glacial lakes can be monitored using satellite imagery and additional equipment to give early warnings to at-risk communities.
Hindu Kush Himalayas: An abnormal climate
According to the International Centre for Integrated Mountain Development (ICIMOD), temperatures in all eight countries of the Hindu Kush Himalaya (HKH) region are expected to be above normal in 2025, with an increase of 0.5 to 2 degrees Celsius above the long-term average. Global and national weather forecasts had also predicted that much of South Asia would experience above-normal rainfall during the 2025 summer monsoon, with more rain expected in the Tibetan Plateau of China, India, Nepal, and Pakistan, while Afghanistan and Myanmar were expected to receive less.
ICIMOD estimates that this summer monsoon, temperatures across the entire HKH region could be up to 2 degrees Celsius above average. Floods have been the primary cause of death and economic damage in the region, with nearly three-quarters (72.5 percent) of floods between 1980 and 2024 occurring during the summer monsoon.
Meanwhile, the snow-covered area in the HKH has dropped to its lowest level in 23 years, at 23.6 percent below normal, creating a further water security crisis across South Asia. These impacts pose a serious threat to rivers, hydropower projects, agriculture, and the safety of Himalayan communities.
India is also experiencing an abnormal climate within the HKH region. This year’s monsoon alone was expected to have temperatures up to 2 degrees Celsius above average. Rainfall has also been irregular. India has experienced its highest monsoon rainfall since 2013, with a 21 percent increase above normal. Some northern Indian states saw more than a 1,200 percent increase in rainfall over a short period. According to ICIMOD, this has led to flash floods, cloudbursts with more than 100 millimeters of rain per hour, and landslides, which have killed hundreds of people and damaged critical infrastructure.
Nepal’s need for cooperation with HKH countries
ICIMOD’s April forecast report on snow in the HKH region predicts a lower-than-normal snow cover in 2025 for the third consecutive year. The HKH region is a biodiverse and culturally rich mountainous area spanning eight countries: Afghanistan, Bangladesh, Bhutan, China, India, Myanmar, Nepal, and Pakistan.
This region is facing various crises from climate change, biodiversity loss, and pollution, as well as rapid socio-economic changes. These are having a severe impact on ecosystems, natural resources, livelihoods, and human lives.
Geologist Adhikari states that the HKH region has seen significant changes from previous years to the present. He points to the recent floods in Pakistan’s Khyber Pakhtunkhwa province and India’s Dhareli, along with negative impacts in Bhutan and Myanmar. With a large population and agriculture as the main profession in the HKH region, the increased rate of snowmelt is raising concerns about a lack of naturally available water.
Recalling the flood in Kerung, Rasuwa, he emphasizes the need for international cooperation in studying and researching cross-border disasters. “The upstream countries must share information with the downstream countries during a disaster,” he says.
The Department of Hydrology and Meteorology states that while there is some coordination related to weather systems, there is very little research in this region. Spokesperson Pokharel says, “The HKH nations need to unite for study and research.”
