With just two months of the current fiscal year remaining, the government is significantly behind on both its revenue collection and expenditure targets. The government had allocated Rs 352.35bn for capital expenditure for the fiscal year 2024/25. However, as of mid-May, only Rs 121.36bn, just 34.44 percent of the annual target, has been spent. Although past trends show capital spending rises in the final months of the fiscal year, the remaining Rs 232bn is likely to remain unutilized.

In the last fiscal year, only 63.47 percent of the Rs 302bn capital allocation was spent. Capital spending has averaged around 60 percent over the past four years, a steep decline from the pre-covid average of 70 percent and a sharp fall from highs of over 80 percent percent in 2017/18. These figures reflect a system that struggles with efficiency, planning and execution.

Performance has also been weak on the revenue side. By mid-May the government had collected Rs 927.55bn in revenue, 65.35 percent of the annual target to raise Rs 1,419.30bn. To meet this target, the government needs to raise nearly Rs 500bn over the next two months which is highly improbable if not impossible. Total government income, including foreign grants and other sources of income, reached Rs 954.92bn by mid-May. 

The government had projected a total revenue of Rs 1,471bn in the current fiscal year. Meanwhile, total expenditure stood at Rs 1,164.04bn, or 62.57 percent of the target. The budget deficit now stands at Rs 208bn. The government made a downward revision of the revenue target to Rs 1,286bn through the mid-term review of the fiscal budget in February.  However, even this revised figure now appears out of reach, as the government would still need to collect Rs 364bn in the remaining two months.

Sluggish revenue collection and lower-than-expected foreign grants have affected revenue mobilization in the current fiscal year. The government has been able to mobilize foreign aid of only Rs 16.11bn out of the targeted Rs 52.32bn over the past 10 months. In contrast, the government has already spent more than 68 percent of its recurrent budget. Out of Rs 1,140bn allocated for recurring expenses such as salaries, pensions and subsidies, Rs 767bn, or 68.2 percent of the total allocation, has already been spent. The government has also spent 71.96 percent of the amount set aside for financial management.