The reinstatement of US tariffs could have severe repercussions for export-oriented least-developed countries (LDCs) whose economies are particularly sensitive to external economic shocks due to their concentration of trade on a small number of products as well as their limited resources to deal with setbacks, according to the WTO Secretariat's latest Global Trade Outlook and Statistics report released on 16 April.
Under the current situation with the pause on US' "reciprocal" tariffs, LDCs may benefit from trade diversion as their export structure is similar to China's, especially in textiles and electronics, the report said.
The volume of world merchandise trade is expected to decline by 0.2% in 2025 under current conditions, nearly three percentage points lower than what would have been expected under a "low tariff" baseline scenario, according to the report. This is premised on the tariff situation as of 14 April. Trade could shrink even further, to -1.5% in 2025, if the situation deteriorates.
Services trade, though not directly subject to tariffs, is also expected to be adversely affected, with the global volume of commercial services trade now forecast to grow by 4.0%, slower than expected.
Director-General of WTO Ngozi Okonjo-Iweala said: "I am deeply concerned by the uncertainty surrounding trade policy, including the US-China stand-off. The recent de-escalation of tariff tensions has temporarily relieved some of the pressure on global trade.”
However, the enduring uncertainty threatens to act as a brake on global growth, with severe negative consequences for the world, the most vulnerable economies in particular, she said, in the face of this crisis, WTO members have the unprecedented opportunity to inject dynamism into the organization, foster a level-playing field, streamline decision-making, and adapt our agreements to better meet today's global realities."
At the start of the year, the WTO Secretariat expected to see continued expansion of world trade in 2025 and 2026, with merchandise trade growing in line with world GDP and commercial services trade increasing at a faster pace. However, the large number of new tariffs introduced since January prompted WTO economists to reassess the trade situation, resulting in a substantial downgrade to their forecast for merchandise trade and a smaller reduction in their outlook for services trade.
Regional goods trade forecasts
The latest forecast marks a reversal from 2024, when the volume of world merchandise trade grew 2.9%, while GDP expanded by 2.8%, making 2024 the first year since 2017 (excluding the rebound from the COVID-19 pandemic) where merchandise trade grew faster than output.
In 2025, the impact of recent tariff measures on merchandise trade is expected to differ sharply across regions.
Under the current policy landscape, North America is expected to see a 12.6% decline in exports and 9.6% drop in imports in 2025. The region's performance would subtract 1.7 percentage points from world merchandise trade growth in 2025, turning the overall figure negative. Asia is projected to post modest growth in both exports and imports this year (1.6% for both), along with Europe (1.0% export growth, 1.9% import growth). Both regions' contributions to world trade growth would remain positive under current policies, albeit smaller than in the baseline low tariff scenario. The collective contribution to world trade growth of other regions would also remain positive, in part due to their importance as producers of energy products, demand for which tends to be stable over the global business cycle.
The disruption in US-China trade is expected to trigger significant trade diversion, raising concerns among third markets about increased competition from China. Chinese merchandise exports are projected to rise by 4% to 9% across all regions outside North America, as trade is redirected. At the same time, US imports from China are expected to fall sharply in sectors such as textiles, apparel, and electrical equipment, creating new export opportunities for other suppliers able to fill the gap.
Most services growth in 2025 will originate from Europe, where exports are expected to grow by 5.0% under current policies. European growth will continue at 4.4% in 2026. Asian economies' services exports are projected to increase by 4.4% in 2025 and by 5.1% in 2026. Growth in services exports of North America will slow to 1.6% in 2025 but then accelerate to 2.3% in 2026, the report said.
For the Middle East, services exports are expected to grow by 1.7% in 2025 and 1.0% in 2026. In the Commonwealth of Independent States (CIS), growth of 1.1% in 2025 and of 3.5% in 2026 is anticipated. The outlook for 2025 is subdued for Africa and for South and Central America and the Caribbean, both of which are expected to record declines in 2025.
