Prime Minister KP Sharma Oli’s government finds itself besieged on multiple fronts. PM Oli faces perhaps his most severe test since returning to power, with simmering public discontent threatening to boil over into broader instability. Across the country, disparate protest movements are gaining momentum—from pro-monarchy rallies capitalizing on a growing nostalgia for the royal era to weeks-long teacher strikes paralyzing education sectors. The recent communal violence in Birgunj serves as a worrying harbinger of how quickly localized grievances can escalate into wider unrest.
The economic backdrop further compounds these challenges. With growth stagnating and inflation squeezing household budgets, public patience with political dysfunction has worn dangerously thin. Even within the ruling coalition, tensions have reached unprecedented levels as a section of the Nepali Congress (NC) has voiced open dissatisfaction with the government’s performance. Some leaders have openly questioned whether continued support for Oli’s administration remains politically tenable.
Multiple sources within both ruling and opposition parties confide that there’s growing anxiety that the current constitutional order could face existential threats if the government fails to regain control of the narrative. The resurgence of monarchist sentiment, once considered politically marginal, has particularly alarmed republican forces across the spectrum.
Analysts point to a dangerous vacuum emerging where the state's inability to deliver basic governance has allowed alternative political models to regain credibility among disillusioned citizens. The peace process-era promises of stability, development and accountable governance have largely gone unfulfilled, with corruption scandals and bureaucratic inertia dominating headlines. Prime Minister Oli’s opponents argue his administration has exacerbated these problems through a combination of distracted leadership and poor prioritization.
Meanwhile, the coalition dynamics present Oli with an excruciating dilemma. While he depends on NC support to remain in power, that very dependence limits his ability to take decisive action. This climate of uncertainty has reportedly led to a reactive rather than strategic governing approach, with policies being crafted more to placate coalition partners than address systemic issues.
NC President Sher Bahadur Deuba’s role as both stabilizer and potential disruptor adds another layer of complexity. The NC leader has so far resisted calls from within his party to reconsider the alliance, but his continued support appears increasingly conditional. Oli’s repeated public commitments to honor the leadership transition agreement with Deuba reflect this precarious balance. Deuba faces his own mounting pressures, with NC hardliners arguing the party gains nothing from propping up an unpopular government while sharing the blame for its failures.
With skeptical rhetoric within the ruling coalition out in public, Prime Minister Oli held a discussion with coalition partner Deuba on Tuesday morning. The hour-long meeting at Baluwatar addressed concerns about the coalition’s longevity and criticisms that its functioning hasn’t reflected true partnership. Sources close to Prime Minister Oli confirmed there’s no fundamental disagreement between the two leaders regarding the coalition’s validity or duration.
“Historically, unresolved issues between our parties have been settled through institutional mechanisms, and this tradition will continue,” a Baluwatar source said. “Both leaders are likely to promptly address these matters through formal channels.”
The coalition’s coordination committee will convene within days, with NC Vice-president Purna Bahadur Khadka currently serving as its coordinator.
These developments follow opposition leader Pushpa Kamal Dahal’s New Year statement predicting imminent government change. The Maoist leader’s careful framing—suggesting an NC-led government as the natural alternative—appears designed to encourage defections while maintaining plausible deniability. However, Dahal faces his own credibility challenges, with many questioning whether his frequent government change predictions amount to meaningful strategy or mere political posturing.
Within the NC, the debate over the alliance has evolved from muted grumbling to open dissent. Shekhar Koirala’s blunt assessment that the party holds power without real influence captures the growing sentiment among NC lawmakers who feel they bear the costs of governance without enjoying its benefits.
The party’s younger generation, represented by figures like Gagan Kumar Thapa, has been particularly vocal in demanding course correction. “We thought that the coalition of two major parties would initiate an amendment to the constitution to improve governance and expedite development works,” Thapa said.“But this government has failed to meet the expectations of the people.”
Another leader Bishwa Prakash Sharma has suggested Prime Minister Oli to focus on governance and development, rather than spending his precious time confronting his detractors. NC’s message to the prime minister is clear: to build public confidence in this coalition, he must deliver and not deviate.
As the pressure mounts, Oli’s room for maneuver continues to narrow. The Prime Minister finds himself caught between an impatient public, restive coalition partners, and resurgent opposition. His recent efforts to project confidence, including claims that the UML-NC alliance remains strong, appear increasingly disconnected from the political realities on the ground.
