Prime Minister KP Sharma Oli participated in the sixth BIMSTEC Summit held on April 4 in Thailand, where he engaged in three significant events. He addressed the summit, held a one-on-one meeting with Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi on the sidelines, and conducted bilateral talks with Thai officials. The discussions with Thailand led to the signing of several key agreements, taking Nepal–Thailand relations to a new level.
Oli’s brief meeting with Modi has drawn considerable attention back home, as speculation continues over the nature of their discussions. There is a widespread perception that the relationship between the two leaders has not always been warm, and many wonder if this encounter has paved the way for Oli’s long-awaited official visit to New Delhi. However, a close reading of Oli’s statements upon returning to Nepal indicates that such a visit is unlikely in the near future. In fact, both Oli and his team appear uncomfortable when questioned about a possible India trip. On the other hand, Indian officials maintain that bilateral ties are on a positive path and that high-level visits could occur when the time is right.
India’s engagement with Nepal has visibly increased in recent weeks. The two countries’ judicial bodies recently signed an agreement to cooperate on legal matters, and a fresh Memorandum of Understanding has been signed to expand cooperation in agriculture, covering crop production, trade, and technology. There was initial speculation that Prime Minister Modi would attend the Sagarmatha Dialogue in Nepal, but Oli confirmed that Modi had declined the invitation due to a scheduled trip to Europe during the same period. According to Oli, India has committed to sending a high-level delegation in his place. The Nepali government is also exploring the possibility of having the Chinese Premier address the Dialogue.
In a major political development, Rastriya Swatantra Party (RSP) Chair Rabi Lamichhane was arrested following a court order from the Butwal bench of the Tulsipur High Court in connection with a cooperative fraud case. His arrest came just days after he resumed his position as party chair and began overseeing party affairs. The timing and manner of his arrest, particularly its execution in the late evening, have drawn criticism from party leaders and supporters, who view it as politically motivated. DP Aryal has been named acting chairman of the party.
The re-arrest of Lamichhane has fueled rumors that the RSP may lean towards supporting the ongoing pro-monarchy protests, especially amid perceptions that the party’s commitment to the current political order is uncertain. The RSP is an ideologically diverse party, including liberals, conservatives, and left-leaning voices, making it difficult for the leadership to take a clear stance on political ideology without risking internal fractures. Instead, the party has focused heavily on issues of governance, appealing to a disillusioned electorate that is less concerned with ideology and more with performance.
Meanwhile, the pro-monarchy Rastriya Prajatantra Party (RPP) organized a mass protest on April 8 in Kathmandu, marking the first major demonstration since the violent March 28 rally. The RPP is attempting to take charge of the royalist movement, though not without resistance. Prasai, the controversial figure behind the initial protests and currently in hiding, released a video accusing certain leaders of attempting to hijack the movement. RPP leader Rajendra Lingden is working to consolidate leadership, but other pro-monarchy groups remain hesitant to support him. Kamal Thapa’s faction, Rastriya Prajatantra Party Nepal, has stayed largely inactive, although Thapa has been vocal on social media, cautioning against blaming former King Gyanendra for the March 28 violence. Senior RPP leaders Rabindra Mishra and Dhawal Shumsher Rana are currently in police custody. The Jug Man Singh Gurung-led committee is preparing another protest in Kathmandu, demanding the release of those detained over the March unrest. Prasai, despite being underground, appears determined to position himself as a political leader, though he may face legal action for inciting violence during the protests.
In another significant political development, seven Madhes-based parties—both represented in Parliament and outside—have formed a unified alliance to advocate for the region’s shared interests. Their main agenda is to push for constitutional amendments that address long-standing issues in the Madhes. The alliance also aims to send a clear message to both royalist and mainstream parties, whom they hold responsible for growing public discontent.
