The world is witnessing an unprecedented shift in the global balance of power, shaped by fluctuating levels of trust—ranging from distrust to over-trust—among allies, partners, and rivals. While long-standing adversaries inch closer to trust, former allies are drifting apart.
For nearly eight decades, the United States has dominated the global order, emerging as the unipolar leader after World War II. Historically, international politics has been reshaped after great wars, but US President Donald Trump disrupted this pattern, attempting to redefine global dynamics without such a transition. His disregard for alliances, multilateralism, and diplomatic norms—along with his defiance of the traditional "balance of power" principle—has stunned scholars, analysts, and foreign policy experts worldwide.
A stark display of this shifting order unfolded in the Oval Office last week when the presidents of the US and Ukraine engaged in a tense, televised exchange. The meeting resembled a coercive business negotiation rather than a diplomatic discussion. The Ukrainian president appeared pressured into signing a critical mineral deal, reducing the encounter to a stage-managed spectacle. The scene was less about strategic partnership and more about power dynamics, with Ukraine seemingly treated as a pawn in a larger geopolitical game.
Has Trump's approach advanced American interests, or has it weakened the country’s global standing? Following the heated Oval Office confrontation, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky was hailed as a “dignified hero” by EU leaders and US Democrats. Unlike past leaders who complied with Washington’s directives, Zelensky defied the American president, refusing to yield to pressure. However, this did not translate into a victory for Ukraine. Instead, the United States suffered a diplomatic setback, fracturing its alliances and reinforcing global skepticism about its leadership.
The diplomatic rift between the US and the EU on the Ukraine issue signals potential realignments. Analysts warn that institutions like NATO and the Transatlantic Alliance could face an existential crisis as America's credibility erodes. Critics argue that no US president has misunderstood trade, tariffs, multilateralism, or diplomacy as profoundly as Trump. Even his former National Security Advisor, John Bolton, has condemned his foreign policy as reckless, warning that it may jeopardize American security rather than strengthen it.
Meanwhile, key global players—including India, Saudi Arabia, Australia, Japan, and South Korea—are quietly observing America’s struggles, ready to exploit its diplomatic missteps. Trump’s policies, which have alienated allies while appeasing adversaries, raise serious concerns about the future of US leadership. Can a nation maintain global dominance when it mistreats its allies and emboldens its rivals?
Trump’s erratic foreign policy has further complicated global tensions. Instead of working toward a resolution in Gaza, he mocked an AI-generated video, “Trump Gaza,” on his Truth Social platform—an act widely criticized as insensitive. While the US frames its national interest as “merciful” in Jerusalem, its stance in Gaza and Kyiv appears markedly inhumane, raising ethical concerns.
The shifting power dynamics extend beyond Ukraine. If Trump applies similar coercion to Taiwan, the US could effectively hand over the island to China, fulfilling Beijing’s long-standing ambition. A comparable approach toward Japan, South Korea, or the Philippines could dismantle critical alliances like QUAD and AUKUS, leaving America increasingly isolated. The notion that Trump might either dismantle NATO or invite Russia to join it—an idea reportedly echoed by his close advisor Elon Musk—reflects the volatility of his global strategy.
Under Trump's leadership, US foreign policy has become a source of global instability. The question remains: Is this a calculated shift or a dangerous slip in America’s 250-year legacy? Many analysts believe that the post-Cold War world order, which once revolved around the US, is now giving way to a multipolar system where Washington is no longer the sole authority.
While Trump claims to be fostering global peace, his actions suggest otherwise. The possibility of a major global conflict looms large. China has already warned that it is prepared to confront the US—whether in trade, tariffs, or war—until the end. If tensions escalate, and relations with the EU, Canada, and the Middle East remain strained, Washington may find itself without key allies in a potential US-China conflict.
A nuclear confrontation, though unthinkable, could prove catastrophic for humanity. Sensible voices across the world, including this author, oppose all forms of war. However, if Trump continues to push the boundaries of international diplomacy, the US may face unprecedented domestic turmoil. A political crisis could even lead to constitutional amendments limiting presidential authority. Some foresee a scenario where Trump faces mass protests, possible impeachment, or even resistance from the US defense and intelligence community.
As global alliances shift, other nations are stepping up. The EU may seek stronger ties with China, while Saudi Arabia leverages its position in Middle Eastern politics. Russia continues to assert itself, while India navigates its role with strategic shrewdness. The US, once the dominant force in global geopolitics, is now at risk of losing influence across multiple regions.
For Ukraine, the only viable path forward may be direct negotiations with Russia. While Zelensky has called for NATO intervention, the West must prioritize peace over prolonged military engagement. Without diplomatic talks, Ukraine's chances of securing a lasting resolution remain slim. If Israel can negotiate with Hamas, Ukraine too can engage in dialogue with Russia.
In this era of global upheaval, Nepal must tread carefully. Given its strategic location between two rising powers—China and India—Nepal must resist external pressure that could drag it into conflicts resembling Ukraine’s plight. Instead, it should focus on internal stability and self-reliance, strengthening its institutions, economy, and diplomatic standing.
To thrive in an increasingly complex world, Nepal must enhance its global competitiveness in areas such as political stability, technological innovation, data sovereignty, and social integrity. Rather than seeking leniency from global powers, Nepal should cultivate its own strengths and maintain a balanced foreign policy rooted in nonalignment and the principle of “amity with all, enmity with none.”
As the global order shifts, peace remains the ultimate objective. True leadership lies in diplomacy, dialogue, and cooperation—not in coercion and conflict. The world must work collectively to prevent further geopolitical fragmentation and prioritize stability over discord.
The author is a geostrategic thinker and techno-geopolitical analyst
