Shortly after Donald Trump’s second term inauguration, Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi made a concerted effort to secure his visit to the White House. He was the fourth foreign leader to meet Trump in Washington on Feb 13 after the Israeli Prime Minister, Japanese Prime Minister, and Jordan’s King. During the meeting, Modi discussed possible convergence between the American and Indian dream. Using his unique linguistic expression of mnemonic acronyms, aimed at appealing to Trump, he introduced the MIGA (Make India Great Again), an equivalent version of MAGA (Make America Great Again) for India, and argued, “When America and India work together, this MAGA plus MIGA becomes a ‘MEGA partnership for prosperity’ and it is this MEGA spirit that gives new scale and scope to our objectives.” Though Modi seems excited about the convergence of MAGA and MIGA, questions exist about the various divergences between Trump’s and Modi’s aspirations, from defense to technology and immigration to trade. Though India might experience more relaxation in its internal democracy, treatment of minorities, and Ukraine issues in Trump’s term, it will be hard for India to manage pressure on issues such as immigration, trade, and the defense sector. The article will examine immigration and trade issues, while assessing India’s potential challenges facing Trump’s second term.
On the immigration front
Let’s start with the immigration issue. Immigration has emerged as one of the contentious issues between India and the US in the Trump Era. In this issue, India has already felt pressure from the Trump administration. Before visiting Trump, the Modi administration moved quickly to address the USA’s concerns about illegal Indian immigrants that predominantly aligned with Trump's point. When the Trump administration was deporting ‘illegal/undocumented’ Indian citizens in handcuffs and leg restraints, Indian Foreign Minister Jaishankar remarked in Indian parliament that Indians agreed with the USA for deportation. Though the Modi administration is trying to settle the issue in haste, the problem will not likely evaporate soon because of the vast number of Indian illegal immigrants and denunciations of Modi’s move at home.
As the Trump administration initiated the mass deportation of undocumented/illegal immigrants, according to US sources, they have identified around 18,000 Indians as illegally entering the US. However, recent research shows a different picture. According to the Pew Research Center, this number is around 725,000, the third biggest after Mexico and El Salvador. Similarly, the Center for Migration Studies of New York (CMS) estimates such numbers around 693,394. The Department of Homeland Security (DHS) offers another picture, reporting 220,000 unauthorized Indians in 2022. Though there lacks a unified view on the number of undocumented and illegal Indians in the US, it is evident that India is one of the major sources of illegal immigrants in the USA.
During Modi’s recent visit to the US, he agreed to ‘aggressively address illegal immigration and human trafficking,’ a move that has raised concerns in India. While Modi was compelled to match Trump’s tone on the issue of illegal Indian immigrants, diverse concerns and worries are looming in India, particularly regarding the deportation of large numbers of such immigrants to India by the USA. Indian opposition leaders and representatives from locations such as Punjab and Gujrat have been vocal in their criticism of the Indian government’s alignment with the US rather than protecting the rights and interests of their citizens. For instance, Congress leader Manish Tiwari writes, “He [Jaishankar] unfortunately sounded more like a mid-level official of the American Administration rather than the Foreign Minister of India.” Despite Modi’s frequent pledges to ensure the security, safety, and dignity of India’s nationals worldwide, the continuous deportations of Indians in the future will undoubtedly hurt India’s dignity. The Modi administration’s hasty agreement to deport to please Trump has made it difficult for Modi to escape the issue quickly, potentially damaging his strong-man image at home and abroad.
Beyond undocumented and illegal Indian Immigrants, rapidly rising Indian diasporas and their considerable influence are also issues for the Trump-led Rights movement in the USA. Indian-origin people are one of the largest sections of the population in the USA and only second after Mexico. According to Pew Research, around 4.8m Indian Americans live in the USA; out of them, 66 percent were born in India, and 34 percent were born in the USA. as of 2022. Similarly, Statista says over 5.4m Indians live in the USA. Though there is divergence in the number of various sources, Indian Origin people hold a considerable number in the USA. Along with size, Indian Americans are emerging rapidly as an influential section. Indian-origin people are significant beneficiaries of the H-1B visas, which are specially provided to skilled professionals. For instance,according to US official data, Of the H-1B petitions approved in FY 2022, 72.6 percent were for beneficiaries whose country of birth was India. Similarly, the section earns more than double that of the US native and other foreign-born populations. According to Pew Research, the median income of Indian Americans is $145000, whereas the USA’s average median income is around $80,000. Similarly, Indian Americans have emerged as more influential in every area, from business to politics. For Instance, Sundar Pichai is leading Google, whereas Satya Nadella is at Microsoft. Likewise, former Vice-president Kamala Haris, current Director of National Intelligence Tulsi Gabbard, and Republican Leader Vivek Ramaswamy are big names in American politics.
The rise of the Trump phenomenon is pushed by the notion of ‘white supremacy’ that many believers perceive that non-whites are challenging their supremacy in every sector, from jobs to political positions. Though it is not explicitly mentioned in Trump’s recent addresses, such orientation is deeply rooted in the Right-wing section. Anxiety and annoyance surfaced towards Indian-origin immigrants to the US, particularly among the MAGA radicals, as this section is doing better than native Americans and other diasporas there. Recently, as Trump appointed some Indian Americans to some administrative posts, there surfaced racist rants and sentiments toward those persons. One survey shows that Indian Americans believe that White Supremacy is the greatest threat to minorities in the USA. For instance, 70 percent of the Hindus in the USA agree that White Supremacy is a threat to minorities, though not all Indian Americans are Hindus, and all Hindus. are not of Indian origin.
Hence, the psyche of White Supremacy promoted by Trump and movements like MAGA question the safety and dignity of Indian origin. It also fuels the anti-immigrant push, such as the attack on birthright citizenship of the Trump administration, which will hurt the Dream of Indian youth to study and settle in the USA to some degree.
On the economic front
On the economic front, Indian protectionist policies and a vast trade deficit have been the significant issues of divergence between India and the US. India has been approached with protectionist policies, which were consolidated after Modi and his Make in India 2015 policy. For instance, an article in The Economist argues that India used to impose tariffs of around 80 percent in the 1990s, which was reduced to 13 percent in 2008 and later raised to around 18 percent in 2023. US President Trump’s former trade representative in 2024 slammed “India as the most protectionist country.” For stance, The US Trade Department’s 2019 report slammed India as the country with the highest tariff among the major world economies, and such policies make it harder for US firms to enter the Indian market. Recently, signaling the Indian tariffs, Trump has argued that “India has been just about the highest tariff nation in the word …hard to sell to India because of very strong tariffs...whatever India charges, we charge them.” And for the US, India’s protectionist policies have always been of concern amid its rising trade deficit.
Trump’s trade deficit with India is a significant concern for the US, and he has flagged that issue several times. Currently, both countries enjoy trade of an estimated $129.2bn, according to US government statistics. The US has a $45.7bn trade deficit with India, with the South Asian country exporting $87.4bn of goods to the US. As Modi argued, both countries have agreed to enhance trade to $500bn, so who will be the winner of that expansion? Who is going to get concessions in the deal? As recent developments indicate, there are clear signs that India will provide concessions for the US on the trade front.
One is the resumption of the Tesla plant in India. Elon Musk led EV company Tesla has been showing its keen interest to enter into the Indian market. Musk has long been lobbying to open the Indian market for Tesla cars and minimize India’s higher tariff, which is 100 percent in EVS, to smoothen the entry of Tesla. However, in 2022, Musk repelled his plan to enter the Indian market or set up a plan in India. He tweeted, “Tesla will not put a manufacturing plant in any location where we are not allowed first to sell and service cars.” This indicates some standoff between Musk and the Indian government regarding opening the Indian market and establishing the Tesla Plant in India. However, since the last Modi meeting in the US and with Musk there, Tesla’s entry into the Indian market is anticipated as the company has issued a notice regarding hiring staff for Tesla in India. In the recent union budget, India has reduced the basic customs duty on luxury vehicles priced above $40,000 from 110 percent to 70 percent, which seems primarily targeted to ease entry of Tesla and bar other EV companies, such as from China, which are selling cheaper EVs. Similarly, it has also lowered tariffs on minerals used for EV batteries.
There are also signals that India will open its market for Musk’s Starlink, an Internet service provider, which India has blocked till now, citing security concerns. The next commodity for reducing the trade deficit is petroleum products. In the meeting, India has agreed to purchase additional petroleum from the US. The US—now the largest petroleum exporter—emerged as India’s 5th largest petroleum import source in January. India shipped 218,400 barrels per day of oil from the US compared to 70,600 bpd in Dec 2024.
Trump marched into the Oval Office with the promise of a protectionist economy at home while compelling others to open their markets for US goods and services. Though the position sounds hypocritical, Trump’s position signals that others have long benefited from the US’s generosity and open-ups, and it is time for others to pay by opening their markets for American goods and services. Hence, as the USA is already a deficit bearer in trade, it is not difficult to read that Trump will compel India to be more open towards American commodities.
Therefore, though Modi seems hopeful about MIGA and MAGA marriage, Trump is eager to challenge various. Indian interests, for example, by imposing tariffs and compelling the Indian market to open up to US products and immigrant issues, including visas. As India is experiencing hard times in its economy, it aims to accelerate it by partnering more with the US in the economic and technological sectors. However, the Trump shock might make it difficult for India to realize this because it is likely that his moves will hurt India’s exports and investment sectors. India will have limited space to ride on the geopolitical competition of China and the US, which India termed strategic autonomy and benefit from competition. In Trump’s era, as he is eager to challenge and punish every movement that harms MAGA, it is very interesting to see how India exercises its strategic autonomy and how much space it will grab from Trump.
