Perhaps we are really entering an era of disruptions driven by trade wars and more and more accentuated geopolitical rivalries even among core allies. The new Trump administration has started over the weekend a trade war with its most important economic partners, Canada and Mexico with whom it is legally bound by a free trade agreement, the Canada-United States-Mexico Agreement (CUSMA). Tariffs, even of lesser magnitude, have also been imposed on China’s products and it is now certain that the European Union is going to be the next one to be hit.

The future of USAID is in jeopardy, hundreds of its senior staff are on forced leave, its website is offline.  Instead of talking peace, Trump is using the same authoritarian playbook and the same logic of the Russian president, Putin, to insinuate possible territorial takeovers of allied countries.  Amid this upheaval, it is easy to reach an easy conclusion. 

There are even concerns of a possible breakdown of the liberal order, with the United States of America entering a new tumultuous era driven by “America First” policies. How could a nation like Nepal make sense of this rapidly evolving and disruptive situation? Is it the end of an era of cooperation among nations, a period that, notwithstanding its imperfections, offered some stability and predictability even among competing and rival nations? For once, at least apparently, Nepal seems to be on the safe side of this nascent chaos. 

Yes, even a possible closure of USAID won’t constitute a devastating blow for Nepal. After all, its geography has granted Nepal with what I call a “Double Safety Net”, often taunted as a double constraint but, in this unfolding time, a guarantee for stability and, if the quality of national governance would help, national prosperity. This “Double Safety Net” is called India and China. 

If Nepal keeps playing its cards well in balancing the interests of these two giant neighbors (and so far, it has done a pretty decent job at it), then the country will be in a relatively safe space. Yet, as we know, there have been endless talks and opinion essays on how the country should avoid dependency, especially from the angle of underwriting unsustainable infrastructure and economic projects.

It might be worthwhile for Kathmandu to see the current developments in the international arena as an opportunity to go beyond India and China and dare to play a much bigger role internationally. What the world sees as an era of increased geopolitical and economic frictions and much pronounced tensions among nations could become a golden era for Nepal’s enhanced cooperation with the wider world. 

Such a new approach could envision multiple initiatives that could be categorized in two distinct but interconnected folds. On one hand, Nepal could expand its diplomatic horizons by fostering stronger relationships with other developed and emerging nations around the world. On the other hand, instead, the country could set the benchmark for ambitious and innovative national policies that could make Nepal a harbinger and trailblazer for sustainable development and climate policies.

This essay will, to begin with, focus on the former, an outward foreign policy which could unleash Nepal to gain a new image of itself internationally. Let’s start from the neighborhood. Singhadurbar could play a much proactive role in reinforcing ties with its South Asian peers, especially countries like Pakistan, Sri Lanka and Bangladesh. With Dhaka, it is almost inconceivable that there has not been any major interactions with the new interim government under Muhammad Yunus, the de facto Prime Minister of Bangladesh. It might be that New Delhi, considering its closeness with the former regime led by Sheikh Hasina, is putting some obstacles.

Yet Kathmandu should really go unleashed in strengthening its relationships with Dhaka and other capitals, including Thimphu. It is granted that energy-focused diplomacy could help reinforce existing ties, especially with Bangladesh. Such effort at bilateral level should be complemented by a new approach to resuscitate the SAARC, a moribund organization. Kathmandu could inject some vitality in this important body no matter what PM Modi of India thinks of it.Unleashing Nepal’s foreign policy in the region means projecting self-confidence and assertiveness whenever national interests demand and regardless of what others say.

As much as a new, tangible emphasis on South Asia would be much welcomed, unleashing Nepal’s foreign policy would also signify a new focus on boosting vital diplomatic relationships already in force. Think of the European Union, Japan, South Korea and Australia, for example. The relationships between Nepal and these powers are already consolidated but they could reach a new height. This would be possible if Kathmandu manages to swap the existing perceptions and underlying narrative of its relationship with them from the angle of being a country in need of developing aid to a nation that can become a trade and economic partner. 

But Nepal could do much more and be even more ambitious in the international arena. 

Here the country could dare to reach out to other lower-middle income economies and middle powers in the wider Asia-Pacific region but also in Africa and South America. Let’s think, first of all, about Southeast Asia, an area whose regional architecture, the ASEAN, is way ahead than the SAARC, in terms of cooperation among its members. The ASEAN bloc will soon roll out a new strategy, the so-called Vision 2045. We should wonder if the officials at the Ministry of Foreign Affairs in Kathmandu are doing their homework to understand how Nepal could better harness its ties with the region once the new strategy is in place.

But Singhadurbar could even go beyond South East Asia at least in terms of mapping out potential synergies within the African and South American continents. There is a need to engage other peer nations in these vast areas with high potential of economic growth. It might be unimaginable to prospect the possibility of a Prime Minister of Nepal undertaking an international tour of East and Southern Africa nations or visiting the capitals of Argentina, Brazil and Peru and Chile. Yet an ambitious foreign policy, while prioritizing what is more doable and feasible in the short term, should not shy away from bolder steps.