Ordinance, ex-prez’s political ambition, and social media bill

This week was eventful for Nepal’s domestic and external affairs. As the winter session of Parliament begins on Jan 31, both ruling and opposition parties are busy strategizing. The ruling parties, primarily Nepali Congress and CPN-UML, have attempted to bridge their differences.

Some leaders of NC openly criticized the government's move to introduce ordinances, while ruling parties have been defending them. Although UML leaders strongly support the ordinances, some populist NC leaders object. NC President Sher Bahadur Deuba has instructed party lawmakers not to oppose the ordinances in Parliament, but some may defy him. The winter session is likely to witness heated exchanges between ruling and opposition parties, potentially affecting the lawmaking process.

Former President Bidya Devi Bhandari remains a topic of public discourse. She spent a week in Biratnagar seeking input from local UML leaders and cadres regarding her potential leadership of the party after KP Sharma Oli. Earlier, she had visited Pokhara, and upon her return, Oli held a lengthy meeting with her.

Interestingly, UML General Secretary Pradeep Kumar Gyawali stated that it would be inappropriate for Bhandari to rejoin active party politics. Speaking to reporters in Rupandehi on Wednesday, he emphasized that Bhandari should stay out of party affairs, adding that UML has not internally discussed her return. This highlights a potential conflict between Oli and Bhandari. Social media is abuzz with criticism of Bhandari’s political ambitions, with many arguing it would be inappropriate for her to return. UML leaders claim her residence in Chapali Height is gradually becoming a power center, as UML cadres frequently visit her. Meanwhile, Bhandari has been increasingly vocal about her political ambitions. Oli, displeased with her moves, has publicly stated that he will not tolerate factionalism within the party.

The government has introduced Nepal’s first Social Media Regulation Bill, drawing criticism from the media fraternity. The bill is expected to undergo significant public and parliamentary scrutiny. Senior NC leaders, including General Secretary Gagan Kumar Thapa and Bishwa Prakash Sharma, have voiced concerns, while the Federation of Nepalese Journalists has flagged certain provisions. Parliament is unlikely to pass the bill hastily and may refer it for further review. While social media regulation is necessary, balancing it with freedom of speech and expression remains a challenge. Governments worldwide are grappling with similar issues, but Nepal continues to make the mistake of drafting such bills without consulting stakeholders. Although Parliament has the power to amend or reject the bill, a more consultative approach would have improved its chances of passage.

In another development, Madhes-based parties are working towards forming a coalition to push their regional agenda. This week, eight Madhes-based parties established a task force to draft a concept note for their alliance, holding multiple meetings. Since 2008, these parties have suffered multiple splits, weakening their national political influence. Now, with local and national elections approaching, they seem to recognize the need for unity. While immediate unification is unlikely, their efforts may lead to a loose coalition. Some Madhesi leaders suggest India may have encouraged them to form a united front.

Like last week, speculation continues about the longevity of the current coalition. CPN (Maoist Center) Chairman Pushpa Kamal Dahal’s recent public remarks on the government's stability have annoyed Prime Minister Oli, as they create uncertainty. This week, Oli stated he has full support from NC and will reciprocate the favor by handing over power to Deuba after 17-18 months. Oli has been engaging more with Deuba, who faces pressure to reconsider his alliance with UML but appears inclined to maintain the coalition. NC General Secretary Thapa, often seen as an opposition figure within his party, is now working to keep the coalition intact, offering some relief to Deuba.

In another story that should worry us and policy makers, Nepal faces the risk of being greylisted by the Financial Action Task Force (FATF) due to deficiencies in combating money laundering and terrorist financing. The FATF Working Group Meetings, scheduled for Feb 17-21 in Paris, will assess Nepal’s progress. Nepal Rastra Bank Governor Maha Prasad Adhikari acknowledged the risk, stating that Nepal is in the listing phase after its mutual evaluation. This situation is a direct consequence of government negligence and failure to take necessary action against money laundering.

Finally, there has been significant concern over former US President Donald Trump’s decision to halt foreign assistance. Following an executive order, USAID in Nepal has informed the government and local implementing partners to temporarily suspend all projects for at least 90 days. However, the US Secretary of State has approved a waiver for life-saving humanitarian assistance during this review period. A statement from the US. The State Department clarifies that while humanitarian programs may continue, no new contracts shall be signed during this temporary pause.