The week that was: Coalition drama, Trump’s presidency and more

This week, opposition parties have become increasingly united against the KP Sharma Oli-led government. In response to mounting pressure, the government has called for the winter session of Parliament to begin on Jan 31. A key issue remains the government’s controversial decision to introduce nearly half a dozen ordinances, which has sparked national debate. Criticism has come not only from opposition parties but also from within the ruling coalition, with senior Nepali Congress (NC) leader Shekhar Koirala openly expressing his displeasure.

Dissent within the NC is growing more pronounced. While some leaders, like Koirala, are covertly working to alter the coalition dynamics, others, including NC President Sher Bahadur Deuba and General Secretary Gagan Kumar Thapa, are focused on improving the government’s performance. Meanwhile, CPN (Maoist Center) Chairman Pushpa Kamal Dahal has intensified efforts to disrupt the coalition. In the recently concluded Central Committee meeting of his party, Dahal presented a political document emphasizing alliances with revolutionary forces rather than with parties like the NC or CPN-UML. This week, Dahal openly stated his intent to topple the government, declaring: “This government will not last long. If it collapses, NC will become our partner.” Dahal’s public suggestion that Prime Minister Oli should step down is a significant shift, marking the first time such an open challenge has been issued since the coalition’s formation. One NC leader remarked, “The game to remove Oli has already begun, but we cannot predict how long it will take.”

Dahal is actively engaging with opposition parties to bolster parliamentary support and enhance his bargaining position with the NC, should the government fall. However, Janata Samajbadi Party Chairman Upendra Yadav has publicly stated his refusal to support Dahal, complicating Dahal’s plans. Within the NC, the dynamics are equally intriguing. While Koirala’s faction is quietly maneuvering against the government, Deuba and Thapa are determined to stabilize the coalition. Thapa, in particular, is collaborating with senior UML leaders to explore ways to improve the government’s performance. Deuba has also urged NC ministers to deliver better results, reaffirming his commitment to maintaining the coalition.

Within the ruling UML, preparations are underway for the party’s general convention to elect a new chairman. While Oli’s position appears secure, some senior leaders have started aligning with former President Bidya Devi Bhandari, potentially posing a challenge to his leadership. In a significant development, UML announced it would not pursue unification with its splinter group, CPN (Unified Socialist), led by Madhav Kumar Nepal. However, it extended an invitation to leaders and cadres from the splinter group—excluding Nepal himself. This week, Bam Dev Gautam, a prominent figure who had been sidelined in party politics, announced his return to the UML. Gautam’s re-entry could alter the party’s internal dynamics, as he is expected to strongly back Oli. To consolidate his position, Oli might elevate Gautam within the party, potentially sidelining senior leaders who are shifting toward Bhandari’s camp.

On the international front this week, Donald Trump’s inauguration as the 47th US President has sparked concerns in Nepal. His executive orders and policy decisions, including potential deportations of undocumented Nepalis in the US, could have significant repercussions. Trump’s withdrawal from the Paris Climate Agreement and the World Health Organization could also impact Nepal’s climate change initiatives and health sector, which rely heavily on international support. Additionally, US assistance for Nepal’s gender and sexual minority communities might be affected. These developments have prompted government officials and foreign policy experts to assess the potential implications for Nepal.

To highlight the effects of climate change in the Himalayas, Nepal has scheduled the Sagarmatha Sambad, a global dialogue, from May 16-18 in Kathmandu. This event, originally planned for 2020 but postponed due to the Covid-19 pandemic, will focus on the theme “Climate Change, Mountains, and the Future of Humanity.” If successful, it will mark Nepal’s first major international dialogue of this kind, offering a platform to spotlight critical issues such as the rapid melting of Himalayan glaciers. The government faces the challenge of ensuring high-level participation from countries and multilateral organizations to enhance the event’s significance. Strong collaboration between the Prime Minister’s Office and the Ministry of Foreign Affairs will be crucial to its success. Social media has already drawn attention to the issue, with many users sharing photos of snowless mountains, underscoring the urgency of addressing climate change.

In another development this week, the Department of Immigration’s latest Nepali Departure Report reveals a troubling trend. In 2024, 66,835 Nepalis left the country permanently, obtaining residency abroad, compared to approximately 70,000 in 2023. Additionally, 856,422 Nepalis sought foreign employment. These figures highlight an ongoing exodus, with no signs of abating.

Meanwhile, the dry winter season has persisted, raising concerns about a prolonged drought. Rising temperatures may offer some respite from the cold but pose significant risks to agriculture, water resources and public health. The dry conditions also increase the likelihood of wildfires, some of which have already been reported. The government must prioritize preparations to address these challenges.

 

In another story, the Cabinet has endorsed a bill regulating social media in Nepal, though its contents have yet to be disclosed. This move has sparked curiosity and concern among the public, who are eager to learn about the bill’s potential implications for digital freedoms and expression.