Trouble brews in coalition

Dissatisfaction is gradually brewing up inside the ruling Nepali Congress over the performance of the coalition government led by CPN-UML Chairperson KP Sharma Oli.

On one hand, CPN (Maoist Center) Chairperson Pushpa Kamal Dahal is provoking NC leaders to break the coalition with UML, while on the other, there is increasing dissatisfaction inside the NC rank and file. A couple of factors are widening the rift between the two parties.  

First, NC leaders have openly criticized the government’s move to introduce four ordinances by delaying to call the Parliament session. Senior leader of the party Shekhar Koirala, who is currently in the United Kingdom, said that instead of calling the winter session of Parliament, the government is focusing on bringing ordinances.

I have a doubt whether the powerful government of two parties is turning into an authoritarian one, said Koirala, who has already declared his plan to run for the party president.

In the past, Koirala was one of the strong advocates of the NC-UML government, stating that it would bring stability but after six months, Koirala and leaders close to him have begun openly criticizing the government. 

Even those leaders close to NC President Sher Bahadur Deuba are criticizing some of the decisions and speeches made by Prime Minister Oli. A few days back, Prime Minister Oli said that the constitution amendment will take place in 2030 because the amendment cannot take place without majority seats in the government.

Former foreign minister and Central Working Committee member NP Saud has publicly said Oli's statement on constitution amendment, made without consulting NC, is a violation of the agreement reached between two parties while forming the new government. Similarly, NC senior leader Arjun Nara Singh KC said that relevance of the seven-point agreement between two countries has ended after Oli’s objectionable statement on constitution amendment. The statement came at a time when NC and UML were preparing to form a taskforce to work out the modality of constitution amendment. Even a leader close to Prime Minister Oli said that there is a very slim chance of constitution amendment as some forces and parties are preparing to raise the radical agenda.

Already, there is dissatisfaction inside the NC over the signing of a framework agreement on Belt and Road Initiative (BRI). Leaders say though the party has stood against accepting loans under the BRI, the crux of the framework agreement is accepting loans. Foreign Minister Arzu Rana Deuba has said time and again that Nepal has denied loans under the BRI, but NC leaders are not convinced. Senior leaders of the party such as Prakash Sharan Mahat, NP Saud and scores of leaders close to Shekhar Koirala are objecting to the signing of the BRI. 

There is another point of friction, which NC leaders have not spoken publicly about but share in private conversations: the relationship with India and western countries. They say the government's mishandling of the issues related to foreign policy has sourced NC’s relationship with India and other western powers.

Especially, our relationship with India has soured after we joined UML to form a new government, plus, Foreign Minister Deuba has failed to improve ties with India, the NC leader said: after her visit to India in August, relationship between two countries and relationship between NC and India has further deteriorated, which is concerning. According to NC leaders, before his China visit, Prime Minister Oli used to heed the advice and respect the position taken by NC but after that he is gradually dominating the NC in the decision-making process. For instance, Oli heeded NC’s position of not removing Nepal Electricity Managing Director Kul Man Ghising but now he is bent on removing Ghising.

The growing dynamics inside the NC is equally responsible for the growing criticism of the government. Now, it seems that General Secretary Gagan Kumar Thapa is with party President Deuba and he is supporting and in many cases he is involved in some of the decisions of the government. The Shekhar Koirala faction believes that Thapa is seeking Deuba’s support for the party presidency. It seems Deuba, Shashank Koirala and Gagan Kumar Thapa are coming closer to weaken Shekhar Koirala. If that is the case, the Shekhar Koirala camp will work to topple this government, the NC leader said.

At the same time, CPN (Maoist Center) Chairman Pushpa Kamal Dahal is reaching out to NC leaders, who are publicly expressing dissatisfaction over the performance of the Oli government. Dahal is urging NC leaders to make extra efforts to bring down the government. Speaking with journalists on Tuesday in Sindhupalchowk, Dahal said due to the dissatisfaction inside the NC and unpopular decisions it has taken, this government will collapse.

I cannot predict the date but I think it does not have a long life, Dahal said, due to the internal dynamics of the NC government which cannot move ahead comfortably. Dahal added that though they did not want this government to continue, they were not making any effort to topple it.  NC President Deuba, despite the differences, is in favor of the continuation of this government with a view that Oli would peacefully hand over power to him.  Dahal has conveyed the message to Deuba that the Maoists would support the NC-led government till the next elections.