Prospect of unified Madhesi political force

Madhes-based political parties have begun deliberations on forming a unified political force to advance the region’s agendas. According to Madhesi leaders, they face mounting pressure from the local level and civil society to consolidate their efforts for greater impact.

This push for unity coincides with discussions on amending the constitution by two major political parties—Nepali Congress (NC) and CPN-UML—an issue of critical importance to Madhes. Madhes-based parties, which did not initially endorse the 2015 constitution, saw only partial demands addressed through its first amendment in 2016.

Compounding this, Madhes has emerged as a geopolitical hotspot, drawing heightened interest from global powers. While India has traditionally wielded strong influence over Madhes and its political actors, countries like the United States and China have increased their presence through non-governmental organizations and think tanks, further complicating the region’s dynamics.

Keshav Jha, a prominent Madhesi leader, highlighted the urgency of unification. “We are under public pressure to unite the parties or, at the very least, form an alliance or loose network,” he said. However, the past 15 years have been marked by both the emergence of influential political forces and frequent splits within Madhes-based parties.

Jha noted that recent discussions among Madhesi leaders explored possibilities for collaboration but acknowledged significant challenges. Many leaders and civil society figures attribute the fragmentation of these parties to personal ambitions for power. A senior Madhesi leader Laxman Lal Karna further accused the major national parties—NC, UML, and CPN (Maoist Center)—of engineering splits within Madhes-based parties to weaken their influence.

Before 2006, the Sadbhawana Party was Madhes’ sole dominant political force. However, the first Constituent Assembly elections saw the rise of the Madhesi Janadhikar Forum under Upendra Yadav. The same year, senior NC leader Mahantha Thakur broke away to form the Tarai Madhes Loktantrik Party (TMLP). Splits within these parties became a recurring trend, notably in 2009, when differences between Yadav and Bijaya Kumar Gachhadar over joining the UML-led  government led to a major division. This cycle of fragmentation continues to this day.

In the last decade, a shift has occurred as Madhes-based parties strive to establish themselves as national political entities rather than remaining confined to a regional identity. Sociologist Pranab Kharel noted that most parties have removed the term ‘Madhes’ from their names in pursuit of a broader appeal. A prominent example is the 2016 unification between Upendra Yadav and former Maoist leader Baburam Bhattarai, who formed Naya Shakti to create a powerful national party. However, their efforts faltered due to personality clashes.

Kharel believes this identity struggle creates confusion. “There’s a lack of clarity on whether to operate as a provincial party for Madhes or expand as a national force. Personally, I think Madhes needs a strong provincial party to address its issues effectively,” he said. Despite leading the Madhes provincial government, the influence of Madhes-based parties in national politics has significantly waned due to internal divisions. Observers also point out that these parties face public scrutiny over unmet promises, with two elections held since the promulgation of the new constitution.

While the idea of unity among Madhes-based parties is gaining traction, observers caution that achieving it will be difficult. Personality clashes remain a significant hurdle, with no single leader commanding enough respect to unite all factions. Previous attempts to adopt rotational leadership systems also failed to resolve this issue. Additionally, ideological differences persist; leaders with backgrounds in liberal democracy clash with those rooted in leftist ideologies, making consensus elusive.

Amid these challenges, Keshav Jha notes a new polarization within Madhes. Anil Kumar Jha, leader of the Loktantrik Samajbadi Party, advocates for cooperation. “This is not the time to dwell on past weaknesses. We must take initiatives for a new kind of collaboration in Madhes,” he said. While he sees little potential for outright unification, he emphasizes the need for alliances and partnerships.

Raj Kishwor Yadav, vice-chairperson of the Janata Samajbadi Party, echoed this sentiment, stressing the importance of adapting to changing domestic and international dynamics. “The shifts in both domestic and global politics are affecting Nepal. We need fresh thinking when discussing alliances and unification,” he said. Similarly, Renu Yadav, another vice-chairperson of the Janata Samajbadi Party, emphasized that while multiple Madhes-based parties exist, they share common agendas.

Despite the challenges, the discourse around unification and collaboration among Madhes-based parties reflects a recognition of the region’s political fragmentation and the need for a cohesive approach to address its longstanding issues. Whether these efforts will lead to meaningful change remains to be seen.