Madhes struggles in Human Development Index

The Madhes Province Policy and Planning Commission released a report on Sunday highlighting the high poverty rate and deteriorating Human Development Index (HDI) in Madhes Province. The HDI encompasses factors such as education, health, employment, and infrastructure development that directly impact human life.

According to the report, the multidimensional poverty rate in Madhes is 24.02 percent, compared to the national average of 20 percent. Issues such as food insecurity, inadequate shelter, lack of clothing, and inability to afford medical treatment are categorized under multidimensional poverty. Madhes Province ranks second in both multidimensional poverty and economic poverty, with an economic poverty rate of 22.53 percent.

Despite some improvements, Madhes remains at the bottom of the HDI rankings among provinces. The overall poverty rate and multidimensional poverty rate in Madhes were 27.7 and 47.9 percent respectively in the base year 2018/19. By 2022/23, these rates had improved to 22.53 and 24.02 percent, but they fell short of the target to reduce the overall poverty rate to 21 percent.

Similarly, the HDI increased from 0.421 to 0.519 during the same period. However, Madhes still lags behind other provinces, with Mahottari and Rautahat performing the worst. The first periodic plan aimed to raise per capita income to $1,000, but only $875 was achieved by 2022/23. The plan also targeted an average annual economic growth rate of 9.0 percent, but the actual rate was limited to 2.5 percent due to internal and external challenges.

The report cites the global Covid-19 pandemic, the Russia-Ukraine war, and rising commodity prices, including petroleum, as key factors disrupting supply chains and hindering economic growth. The economic growth rate for Madhes was just 1.5 percent in 2022/23, with a per capita GDP of $868. For the fiscal year 2023/24, growth is estimated at 3.8 percent, with a per capita GDP of $892.

Breaking from the tradition of overly ambitious growth targets, the second periodic plan has adopted a nonlinear least square model to set realistic and achievable economic growth projections. Based on the GDP of 2022/23, the plan forecasts an average economic growth rate of 6.8 percent, with sectoral growth targets of 4.4 percent for the primary sector, 8.8 percent for the secondary sector, and 7.3 percent for the tertiary sector.

Regarding implementation, 60 percent of strategies and 57 percent of action plans have been executed under interrelated and overarching subject areas. Out of 143 proposed programs, 57—or 40 percent—have been implemented. Progress has been observed in only 70 of the 129 set indicators, with no sub-sector apart from forestry and environment exceeding 50 percent progress. Notably, data management and human resource development sub-sectors show no progress, and there is little coordination between climate change initiatives, disaster risk reduction, and indicator achievements.