Oli assures coalition’s stability

Prime Minister KP Sharma Oli continues to reassure his key coalition partner, the Nepali Congress (NC), that he will hand over the government leadership to its President, Sher Bahadur Deuba, after 18 months. Oli seems to be operating under a constant fear of betrayal by the NC. At the same time, a section of NC leaders doubts whether Oli will actually relinquish power, suspecting he might pivot to the CPN (Maoist Center) to revive the left alliance agenda for the upcoming elections.

Every other day, Prime Minister Oli, his ministers, and senior party leaders publicly declare that the coalition will endure until 2027 and that no external force can topple it. On Sunday, Shankar Pokharel, General Secretary of the CPN-UML, stated that the government is strong and will remain stable unless one of the coalition partners decides to break it. On Monday, Home Minister Ramesh Lekhak echoed similar sentiments, asserting there are no immediate threats to the coalition. For now, Deuba appears committed to maintaining the alliance, hopeful of assuming the premiership in 18 months. Upon his return from a five-day official visit to China on December 5, Prime Minister Oli reaffirmed that there are no significant differences between the NC and UML and that Deuba would become Prime Minister with UML’s backing after the agreed period.

There was initial dissatisfaction within the NC over the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) deal with China. Some NC leaders argued the deal contradicted the party’s position that Nepal should only accept grants under the BRI framework. However, the contention subsided after Deuba strongly defended the agreement. The deal’s inclusion of “aid financing,” which encompasses both grants and loans, stirred concerns that it paves the way for Nepal to take loans. Prior to Oli’s China visit, BRI was a major point of contention between the two coalition partners. However, they managed to resolve their differences by forming a joint task force. As a compromise, both China and Nepal agreed to “aid financing” as the investment modality for infrastructure projects under the BRI.

Senior NC leaders are now defending the government to protect their positions, as any coalition reshuffle could jeopardize their roles. Deuba, too, seems reluctant to alter the coalition, as a new arrangement might not guarantee him the premiership. Meanwhile, CPN (Maoist Center) Chairman Pushpa Kamal Dahal has reportedly been communicating through multiple channels to assure Deuba of his party’s unconditional support for an NC-led coalition until the next elections. This is contingent on NC’s willingness to forge an electoral alliance. Key NC leaders, including Vice-chairman Purna Bahadur Khadka, are said to be in constant talks with Dahal, exploring the feasibility of such a coalition.

A few weeks ago, NC General Secretary Gagan Kumar Thapa leaked information about potential coalition talks, prompting Dahal to quickly dismiss the claims, stating he had not proposed a new coalition to the NC. Sources, however, suggest that a potential coalition could include the NC, CPN (Maoist Center), Rastriya Swatantra Party (RSP), CPN (Unified Socialist), and Madhes-based parties. This coalition would likely function as an “election government.” Many political leaders believe abrupt changes in the coalition remain a possibility for two main reasons. First, Dahal publicly criticized the government’s “retaliatory action” against RSP Chairman Rabi Lamichhane, signaling potential collaboration. Second, Dahal appears to be consolidating his political base, raising questions about the coalition’s stability.

A section of NC leaders believes that Oli’s signing of the BRI deal with China has strained his relationship with New Delhi. They argue that the current coalition was formed against India’s preferences. Although the BRI agreement does not include sensitive provisions, New Delhi has historically opposed the initiative. While India has not officially reacted to the Nepal-China BRI agreement, its discontent remains implicit. Recognizing this, Prime Minister Oli is actively working to mend ties with New Delhi, hoping to stabilize the coalition.

Meanwhile, dissatisfaction with the government’s performance is also growing. Although the coalition appears strong in numbers, its inability to deliver on promises has drawn criticism. Both Prime Minister Oli and Deuba publicly downplay these differences, with Deuba defending the government’s performance. However, within the NC, senior leaders like Shekhar Koirala have begun voicing concerns about the government’s functioning.

Political analysts suggest that the coalition’s fate largely hinges on internal dynamics within the NC. While Deuba maintains strong control over the party’s parliamentary and central committees, efforts are underway to undermine his authority. For this to succeed, leaders like Thapa and Koirala would need to join forces. Some NC insiders predict that Deuba may eventually face pressure to reconsider his alliance with Oli. However, it remains unclear why ministers and senior leaders continue to issue reassurances about the coalition’s longevity.