Rajesh Kumar Agrawal: Economy suffering from policy-induced slowness

Rajesh Kumar Agrawal, the president of the Confederation of Nepalese Industries (CNI), has been involved in Nepal’s manufacturing sector since 1992. As the executive director of RMC Group, he oversees a diverse portfolio of products spanning cement, steel, and food industries. With 30 years of experience in the business, Agrawal has developed a profound understanding of financial management, ensuring the company’s financial stability and consistent profitability over the years. Kamal Dev Bhattarai and Pratik Ghimire of ApEx spoke to Agrawal about the state of the country’s economy and more. Excerpts:

What situation is our economy currently in?

Our economy is still going through a difficult situation. The official data shows improvements in some areas such as foreign exchange reserves, banks are loaded with cash, interest rates are going down among others. However, on the other side, we see that our exports are not increasing, in fact, they are decreasing gradually over the past three years and the government’s revenue is not increasing. Although some data shows an increase in revenue, we still need to conduct analysis to ascertain the actual situation. According to the statistics of the Gross Domestic Product (GDP) of the last three quarters, there is not a visible improvement. Last year’s projected GDP was 3.87 which is mainly due to the contribution of the energy sector. Production and manufacturing sectors are still in the negative growth—they are not doing very well. Due to a low aggregate demand, the economy is not able to take off. 

However, I don’t see low exports as the most alarming economic concern for us because production needs to increase first in order to see a growth in exports. Production itself is low in our economy right now. The sector’s contribution in our GDP is decreasing. In such a situation, how can our exports increase? In some sectors, exports are increasing such as IT. But for production and manufacture based products, exports will only increase following an increase in production. Therefore, the CNI sees a push in production as the main goal rather than an increase in exports. Unless we are self-sufficient in the production of any good, there is no possibility of exports. For example, we used to import cement. After the government’s support, the production of cement within the country increased and we became self-sufficient. Since the last two years, we have been exporting cement as well. Therefore, low exports are not the major issue of concern, the main problems currently at hand are decreased productions and increased imports.

Post covid, countries in Asia and worldwide seem to be improving their aggregate demands. Why is it that Nepal has not seen any improvement whatsoever?

The main reason is policy-induced slowness in the economy. The pandemic was an unimaginable period that no one had anticipated. However, after that, the policies we adopted have caused the situation we are currently in. There is no other reason or any external shock. For example, the policy to reduce demand and increase interest rate was introduced in order to influence currency rate. The rate, however, was influenced entirely by our exports and was out of our control. Our decision to introduce such a strong policy resulted in an increased amount of imports, which put pressure on our foreign currency rates. Then, we moved towards a policy to ban imports. This caused panic in the economy. We had to take a loan from an international organization, which had its own set of terms and conditions. To fulfill those terms, we introduced some new policies. 

Loans in the private sector increased. We introduced policies to reduce these loans. Then, there was a boost in the real estate industry. We focused on controlling the prices. Then the share market boomed, and our focus shifted on controlling that increase. All these controlling policies continue to have effects on our current economy and we still bear consequences. The CNI believes that we are experiencing a policy-induced slowness. And the policies that were adopted due to whatever reasons at the time should have been reversed after a year. Some policies were reversed to some level in the last year but it happened too late. Therefore, its consequences still occur and will remain for quite some time.

The policies that we adopted for our imports out of panic are the biggest blunder that happened in the last five years, is that true?

That is not the only reason. It has not caused a major effect in the internal production sector because the policies were to ban import of luxurious goods. The main effects the policy had was on a sentimental level among the citizens. It generated fear regarding the future of the economy, affected government’s revenue, and gave rise to illegal business. The policy we took to lower demand and increase interest rates and to reduce loans in the private sector made major impacts. All the policies we adopted acted as a brake to our economy. If we slowed down gradually at a slower rate, the economy would absorb better. We could have increased interest rates by 0.25 or 0.5 percent as internationally advised, but we adopted a drastic two percent increase even when the situation did not favor. Policies were changed so fast that the economy was unable to keep up. All these controlling policies had an effect on cooperatives as well. We were unable to revive the cooperative sector—which is so closely connected to the general public and small businesses—even after reversing these policies. 

The restrictions implemented from Nepal Rastra Bank (NRB) at that time on the real estate business should be relaxed. The cap on investments in the share market could be removed to send a positive message. NRB has issued a working capital guideline for the loans in the private sector which has caused major effects in the production sector. NRB’s direct lending is 40 percent which is being misused in agriculture and energy industries. Asset classification guidelines have also been issued which is not efficient for group businesses. 

Apart from that, another need is to increase demand. However, the government does not have sufficient funds for that. Contractors are not being paid. A suggestion is to issue 10-year bonds for these contractors equal to the amount to be paid and 90 percent of the bond can be withdrawn from the bank. The government should immediately form a committee to limit projects and focus the budget on projects of greater importance rather than coming up with plans with insufficient budgets. It will take a great deal of time to improve the economy if we don’t take a focused approach for things.

To what extent does our political situation affect the economy?

The political environment definitely affects the economy. Our major problem is the frequent government change. The government is changing every six months. Many tactical decisions require the government’s initiation to move forward. With frequent government change, policies cannot be implemented in such short time periods. How can ministers make decisions when they are not even sure how long they will be in the position for? 

Political stability is of extreme importance because policies drive everything in an economy. There are still some old laws that need to be rectified. With the rapid change occurring worldwide, laws have to be updated accordingly. For this, a stable government and a stable bureaucracy is of extreme importance. There are three years left till the next election. A lot can be done in these three years. Everyone has now understood that for the economy to be stable, current problems need to be dealt with differently. Without political stability, we cannot escape these issues.

There has been growing concern about corruption and criminal activities within government and law enforcement sectors. This has caused an increasing sense of insecurity among businesspeople and has contributed to capital flight. How do you view this?

There are a lot of reasons for this. Firstly, if someone has committed any crime or misdemeanor, it has to be investigated, even if it is from two years ago or ten years ago. However, the old laws that I talked of before have been creating a big problem. If someone is proven guilty, they have to be punished. But right now, even people that have not been proven guilty are being put in jail. We are not asking to release the guilty. But a respected businessperson is not going to run away and there is no reason to put them in jail to be investigated. This is what we at the CNI feel. For this, we have appealed for the provision of an anticipatory bail. 

Some bankers were also convicted some time ago for signatures while issuing loans. While making so many decisions at once, some might go wrong. We have to analyze whether misdemeanors are done intentionally or not. Maybe some government officials could have made mistakes? Investigations are important. But putting someone in jail first, then moving towards investigations is not the way to go. If you see a possibility of the person running away, then sure, it is right to capture them. But if someone is willing to show up when called upon, it is not right to put them in jail before proven guilty.

The CNI suggests that financial penalties should be issued for financial crimes—jails are not the only solution. For example, if there is a tax evasion of 100m and if the person agrees to negotiate and pay the amount, then it’s done. Using the country’s resources to investigate further for like ten years into the case is useless if the person is willing to accept, negotiate and pay.

The kind of investments and support that we are looking for from the international community seems to be falling. FDI seems to be declining. What seems to be the problem?

Ultimately, when the economy is flourishing, there are opportunities, that is when investments come. Currently, our domestic investors themselves are not willing to invest. How can we expect foreign investment? Currently businesses are only able to operate at 30-40 percent capacity. How can new investments be driven under such circumstances? 

Visa might be causing some trouble at the moment for foreign investors because it is only issued for a year and there are some complications for visa issuance to investors’ families. Apart from that, there is no major issue in terms of our laws in attracting FDI. It is simply that the economy needs improvement and the investors need  to see opportunities. Such as in hydropower, opportunities can be seen, like exporting 10,000 MW. Tourism is also seeing some small investments but no major ones, perhaps because there are two international airports but they are not able to operate. Policies also need to be right.

According to your personal forecast, what is the future outlook for our economy?

We see the future as bright. Because we are in so many problems, there are as many possibilities. Chaos creates opportunities. Therefore, there are a lot of opportunities here. As I said before, political stability, bureaucratic stability, and policies need improvement. After that, there should be no problems. There are so many opportunities in infrastructures, and hydropower. There is so much untapped potential in the tourism sector. We have a big market with our neighboring countries which creates huge possibilities for production and trade. Education sector also has a lot of opportunities. If we can establish good universities and modernize our education system, we can develop the sector. Health tourism also has a lot of potential because healthcare is affordable here. In agriculture as well, there are opportunities. We need to go into commercial farming. If the policies can be fixed, there is a lot of scope in many sectors in Nepal.