Climate crisis in Nepal: Farmers as the first refugees

Migration has long been a defining feature of Nepal’s socio-economic landscape, with rural populations moving to cities in search of better opportunities. Urban areas offering better infrastructure, education, healthcare, and other amenities, have always attracted individuals from villages. However, migration trends in recent years indicate a growing number of people being compelled to leave their homes due to increasingly challenging circumstances, primarily driven by natural disasters. The devastating impacts of climate change, including frequent floods and landslides, are forcing rural families to seek refuge elsewhere.

Nepal’s agriculture sector employs about 60 percent of the population, yet most farmers struggle with poverty, unable to earn enough to sustain a decent standard of living. Their dependence on subsistence farming makes them vulnerable to even minor disruptions. Agriculture in Nepal heavily relies on weather patterns, which can either boost or destroy harvests. While this year’s timely monsoon allowed farmers to sow paddy in time, inconsistent weather patterns over the years have left them uncertain about future harvests. Although Nepal ranks 128th in global carbon emissions, it is alarmingly vulnerable to the effects of climate change, placing fourth in global rankings of climate risk. This disproportionality has placed the livelihoods of millions of farmers at risk, as erratic weather patterns disrupt agricultural yields.

Floods and landslides, exacerbated by climate change, inflict significant damage on Nepal’s economy and agricultural sector every year. In October 2024, heavy rains caused catastrophic floods, with two days of rainfall exceeding annual averages. This deluge submerged paddy fields across the country, resulting in losses exceeding Rs 6bn in agricultural commodities. Landslides compounded the devastation, blocking roads and leaving perishable goods to rot. Farmers now face uncertainty about whether the affected fields will be cultivable in the future. The October floods, like many other disasters, have pushed countless families closer to displacement.

In August 2024, a flash flood triggered by the rupture of the Chomuche glacier devastated the village of Thame in Solukhumbu district. All 55 households were affected, with homes, livestock, and agricultural land swept away. The villagers were forced to relocate, illustrating the stark challenges posed by Nepal’s 21 “potentially dangerous” glaciers. A single glacial outburst can trigger widespread floods and landslides, destroying crops, washing away nutrient-rich topsoil, and compromising irrigation. As glacial melts accelerate, the loss of fertile soil—a critical resource for agriculture—leaves farmers unable to sustain their livelihoods, forcing them to abandon farming altogether and seek alternative occupations.

The Tarai region, often referred to as Nepal’s agricultural basket, is particularly affected by climate change. This fertile plain produces over a third of Nepal’s food, but prolonged droughts and erratic monsoons are reducing its productivity. Over 80 percent of the region’s rainfall occurs during the monsoon season, but recent years have seen more intense rains and extended dry spells. According to a 2019 study published in the Global Scientific Journal, winter rainfall in districts like Chitwan, Rautahat, and Kailali has decreased by 51 percent. This has forced communities to drill deeper for water, further depleting the water table. Prolonged droughts have also intensified social conflicts over natural resources, as reported by the Overseas Development Institute in 2017.

The escalating frequency of natural disasters has led to a sharp increase in internal displacement. According to the Global Report on Internal Displacement (2021), 48,000 people were displaced in Nepal between June and September 2020. By 2023, this number had more than doubled to 110,000. Most displaced individuals are farmers and daily wage laborers who are disproportionately affected by climate-induced disasters. Unlike other professions, farming is acutely sensitive to environmental changes, leaving those dependent on it highly vulnerable. Limited financial resources and the high costs of rehabilitation often make it impossible for displaced farmers to return to their previous livelihoods.

Globally, climate change has displaced millions, with the United Nations High Commissioner for Refugees (UNHCR) reporting 21.5m climate-related displacements annually since 2010. In 2022 alone, climate disasters displaced 36.2m people, a number projected to double by 2050 according to the International Federation of Red Cross and Red Crescent Societies (IFRC). The ongoing crisis in Syria serves as a cautionary tale. Once a fertile agricultural hub, Syria now faces severe droughts and resource depletion. Farmers there must now drill over 700 meters to find water, compared to just 60–70 meters previously. This environmental degradation displaced over 2m farmers by 2013 and continues to fuel conflicts, creating conditions where refugees are reluctant to return even if the war ends.

In Nepal, the drying of water resources has reached alarming levels. Studies conducted by RWSSP-WN (2004–2014) revealed that 50% of water sources in Tanahun district dried up during this period. Similarly, a 2017 study in Melamchi reported a 30 percent decline in local spring water volume over the previous decade. This trend is observed nationwide, raising concerns about water availability for both drinking and irrigation. In 2024, residents of Sarlahi district walked for 23 days to Kathmandu to protest the severe water crisis. Their plight underscores the growing urgency of addressing water scarcity before it becomes unmanageable.

Nepal’s farmers are already grappling with climate-induced challenges such as floods, landslides, and droughts, but the situation is likely to worsen with the emergence of new threats like pest outbreaks and crop diseases. Rising global temperatures alter growing conditions, potentially leading to widespread crop failures in regions that were once highly productive. With their economic resilience already stretched thin, Nepali farmers are ill-equipped to adapt to these mounting challenges. Consequently, many will be forced to abandon their homes and livelihoods, seeking work in urban areas or abroad.

The effects of climate change are not just environmental—they have profound social and economic implications. As Nepal faces increasing displacement, resource conflicts, and food insecurity, urgent action is needed to mitigate the impact of climate change. Comprehensive policies that address both immediate and long-term needs are essential to protect vulnerable communities. Strengthening agricultural infrastructure, diversifying livelihoods, and improving disaster preparedness can help build resilience. Without these measures, the cycle of displacement and economic hardship will only deepen, threatening the stability and sustainability of Nepal’s rural communities.