Arzu’s rise in NC and national politics

Foreign Minister Arzu Rana Deuba’s recent meeting with Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi during her visit to India has sparked significant discussion within Nepal’s political circles, particularly within her party, the Nepali Congress (NC). There are murmurs within the NC that this meeting could signal India’s endorsement of Arzu as a future leader of the party and potentially as a future prime minister of Nepal. Over the past few years, Arzu’s husband and NC President Sher Bahadur Deuba, has elevated her position within both the party and national politics.

Currently, she serves as a Central Working Committee member of the NC and a member of the House of Representatives. She played a crucial role in forming an alliance with the CPN-UML to establish the government, which led to her holding the powerful Foreign Ministry portfolio in the KP Sharma Oli-led government.

While she may not run for party president in the 2026 general convention, Deuba seems intent on securing her a significant position within the party. Deuba, who has already served as party president twice, is ineligible to run for a third term due to the party’s statute. Senior leaders such as Purna Bahadur Khadka, Gagan Kumar Thapa, and Shekhar Koirala are currently vying for the party presidency. It remains unclear who will succeed Deuba or emerge as the next leader from his faction. According to NC leaders, Deuba might retire after assuming the Prime Minister’s office again, as per an agreement with Oli, who is expected to hand over the premiership to Deuba in two years.

Some NC leaders speculate that Deuba may propose his spouse, Arzu, for the prime ministerial position due to his advanced age—he is already 80. Others, however, doubt that Arzu will become Prime Minister. Nonetheless, it is evident that Deuba is making every effort to elevate his spouse within the party. At nearly 60 years old, Arzu could remain active in party politics for at least the next two decades.

Deuba’s succession plan has been in motion for some time. He pushed for Arzu’s appointment as chairperson of the Agriculture, Cooperatives, and Natural Resources Committee of the House of Representatives last year, followed by her appointment as Foreign Minister a few months ago. These moves have significantly bolstered Arzu’s standing both within the NC and on the international stage. There was little opposition within the party to these appointments. Even Deuba’s rivals, Gagan Thapa and Shekhar Koirala, did not object. NC insiders believe that Arzu is likely to secure a prominent position at the party’s upcoming general convention, positioning her as Deuba’s political heir.

Arzu is not new to NC politics. Her political journey began in earnest after her marriage to Deuba in 1993, despite her mother, Pratibha Rana, being a leader in the Rastriya Prajatantra Party. Arzu became actively involved in politics after Deuba formed the breakaway faction, Nepali Congress (Democratic), in 2002. Although she has made significant strides within the party, her progress has been closely tied to her husband’s influence. To counter criticisms that Deuba was using his power to elevate her, Arzu contested an election from Kailali district but was defeated. In the 2022 election, she was elected under the proportional representation (PR) quota and is reportedly preparing to contest future elections from Kailali. If Deuba does not run in future elections, Arzu might even contest from Dadeldhura, where Deuba has won for the past three decades.

Arzu’s recent visit to India was a diplomatic success, earning her respect and recognition that few of her predecessors had achieved. Her meeting with Indian Prime Minister Modi, in particular, was seen as a significant accomplishment, enhancing her stature within Nepal's political landscape. This success, coupled with her increased visibility within the party, suggests that she is being groomed for a larger role.

There are clear signs within the NC that Deuba is positioning Arzu for future leadership. In a recent Central Committee meeting, NC leader Shashank Koirala noted how women seem to navigate political challenges more easily than men. Arzu’s growing acceptance within the party indicates that Deuba’s plan is progressing. Despite being relatively new to active politics and having faced opposition, she now enjoys substantial support. Her rank as the seventh in the cabinet hierarchy, ahead of several key figures, reflects the trust and confidence the party leadership has in her abilities.

However, the path to leadership will not be without challenges. Several factions within the NC, led by figures like Deputy Prime Minister Prakash Man Singh and senior leaders such as Shekhar Koirala, Bimalendra Nidhi, and Krishna Prasad Sitaula, may resist Deuba’s efforts to elevate Arzu. Influential general secretaries Gagan Kumar Thapa and Bishwo Prakash Sharma also command considerable support within the party. While Deuba’s close allies may not oppose Arzu’s rise, there is no guarantee that the rest of the party will follow suit, which could deepen existing divisions. With leaders like Dr Koirala and General Secretary Thapa already positioning themselves for party leadership, Arzu’s ascent is unlikely to be smooth.

Arzu’s success would mark a significant milestone for female leadership in Nepal, but it could also be perceived as a continuation of dynastic politics within the NC. Whether Arzu can secure party leadership will depend on her ability to navigate the party's complex dynamics, garner broad support, and prove that she can lead independently of her husband’s legacy. 

While her recent achievements suggest she is a formidable contender, it remains to be seen whether she can overcome the challenges ahead. Notably, Prime Minister Oli’s remark about wanting to see a female Prime Minister may indicate that even the CPN-UML chairman is aware of Deuba’s plans for a leadership transition.