Monsoon menace: Navigating heavy rains

The monsoon season, characterized by cool and gloomy weather, has both advantages and disadvantages for individuals and nations. However, it is causing problems in Nepal due to a massive cluster of heavy rains this year.

The weather in comparison to 2023 has significantly changed due to the annual shift in rainfall patterns resulting from La Niña and El Niño. La Nina is a climate pattern occurring by the change in Pacific Ocean temperatures, affecting monsoon rainfall patterns from Indonesia to the west coast of South America while El Nino means the warming of the ocean surface, or above-average sea surface temperatures, in the central and eastern tropical Pacific Ocean. The monsoon began on June 10 this year, and due to La Niña’s active transition, there is a high likelihood of heavy rainfall across South Asia. Nepal’s geography also increases the risk of floods and landslides.

According to meteorologist Ujjwal Upadhyay, “This year’s monsoon, likely to last till October, is expected to cause severe drought, agricultural issues, high fungal infections, and frequent illnesses among people, with potential consequences in the future.” This year’s rain pattern, with short duration and high quantity, rainy nights and sunny days can lead to high nighttime casualties and high humidity, affecting human health through issues like excessive sweating, dehydration, heat stroke, eye infections, and brain and kidney problems.

Meteorologist at Nepal Disaster Risk Reduction Portal, Rajan Lamichhane, says, “We are issuing safety notices and bulletins to individuals of high-risk areas.” He also cautioned that August and September will experience heavier precipitation.

Upadhyay added, “This monsoon will also see a significant change, with 15-30 percent more rainfall in eastern Nepal, 10-15 percent more in Central Nepal, and 5-10 percent more in Western Nepal.” According to the increasing percentage from the average percent, each location will have to deal with casualties based on its geographical features.

The forecast can be analyzed only three days before the weather changes, but the changing pattern of this year was anticipated last year itself, according to experts. In 2023, the monsoon arrived in eastern Nepal on June 14, one day later than usual, and ended on Oct 15, a 13-day delay.

According to the data, the number of casualties and impacted families has decreased but remained high between 2023 and the most recent report. This shows an improvement in dealing with and mitigating the effects of monsoon-related calamities. The greatest significant reductions are evident in landslides and thunderstorms, whereas statistics on floods and heavy rainfall show a drop in intensity.

Box

Monsoon (2023)

 

Monsoon last week (July 26-Aug 1)

 

Monsoon (July 2024)

 

Source: Nepal Disaster Risk Reduction Portal