Can Maoists contest elections alone?

Since 2017, the CPN (Maoist Center) has been securing its political standing through alliances with either the Nepali Congress (NC) or the CPN-UML. In the 2017 elections, an alliance with the UML helped the party win 53 seats in the 275-member House of Representatives (HoR). By 2022, an electoral partnership with the NC resulted in 32 seats.

With neither the NC nor UML securing a clear majority, the Maoist Center, as the third largest party, enjoyed the role of a kingmaker. It used this privileged position to its advantage and, after 2017, its Chairman Pushpa Kamal Dahal managed to become prime minister twice.

However, the unexpected alliance between NC President Sher Bahadur Deuba and UML Chairman KP Sharma Oli on July 1 midnight has relegated Dahal and his party to the opposition. Reports suggest that Deuba and Oli have agreed not to form an electoral alliance with the Maoists in the 2027 elections.

Senior CPN-UML leader Ishwar Pokhrel's revelation of this agreement has further agitated the Maoist party, with leaders accusing the two largest parties of conspiring against them. 

This week, the Maoist Center announced its intention to contest the 2027 election without any electoral alliance, despite the election being three years away. Maoist leaders view this as an opportunity to prepare for a solo campaign, allowing them to present their clear ideology and perspective to the public. Party Spokesperson Agni Sapkota noted that previous alliances hindered the party’s ability to communicate its ideology and programs effectively.

However, political observers doubt the Maoists will stick to this decision, suggesting it may be an attempt to boost cadre morale. Without an alliance, the Maoists are likely to become weaker. Meanwhile, Dahal is already preparing to form an alliance of communist parties for the 2027 elections. Recently, he reconstituted the Socialist Front, a loose network of fringe communist parties, including the CPN (Unified Socialist) led by former Prime Minister Madhav Kumar Nepal. Dahal is trying to revive the idea of left consolidation, expressing concern over UML leaders’ desire to see a leftist alliance like in 2018.

Dahal is acutely aware of the party’s weakening position due to multiple splits since joining peaceful politics and his focus on government formation. Since 2008, the party has suffered at least five splits, significantly weakening its position, particularly in urban areas. The party still holds sway in certain constituencies of the mid-western district, the heartland of the Maoist insurgency, and some pockets of the hilly region. However, its urban base is crumbling.

For instance, in Kathmandu-2, senior Maoist leader Onsari Gharti lost despite an alliance with the NC, and Dahal himself is known for frequently changing his constituencies to find more favorable support. In 2022, he contested from Gorkha-2 with support from Baburam Bhattarai, who has a stronghold in that constituency. It remains uncertain where Dahal will contest the next parliamentary elections. Contesting alone would be a daunting task for the Maoists, and Dahal will likely seek support from Maoist splinter groups, though this may not be enough to secure victory.

In an effort to strengthen the party, Dahal has announced a nationwide tour to reconnect with the people and understand their problems. Even senior Maoist leaders acknowledge the party’s significantly degraded position.

Senior Maoist leader Haribol Gajurel resigned this week, admitting responsibility for the party’s decline and calling for other senior officials to do the same to initiate a fresh start. He emphasized the need for a serious review of the party's weakening position to avoid further setbacks. Gajurel, formerly Dahal's chief political advisor, had previously resigned in protest of several government decisions. 

Similar to the NC and UML, the Maoist party is plagued by factional politics and leadership tussles, with ongoing disputes about Dahal's successor. But unlike NC and UML, the Maoist party is unlikely to survive the next elections without forging strategic alliances.