Climate change and the path ahead

Global climate change has become the most visible environmental concern of the 21st century, transforming the environmental and social landscape of the Himalayas. The impact of environmental change in the Himalayas is being conspicuously noticed in the livelihoods of the people inhabiting the region, exacerbating their economic and environmental vulnerability.

The chief alteration in the environmental component comprises temperature, precipitation, humidity and air, triggering extreme weather events at phenomenal landscapes, influencing both micro and macroclimates. Changes in such parameters are a natural phenomenon and have been an inevitable truth since the origin of the Earth. 

However, the natural rate of climate change is sluggish, and species would need adequate time to adapt to the change. Charles Darwin stated that climate change is “a change of climate which is attributed directly or indirectly to human activity that alters the composition of global atmosphere and which, in addition to natural climate change vulnerability observed over comparable time periods,”

During the past few decades, the world has been experiencing a significant surge in temperatures, worsened by human caused climate change. 

The fourth assessment report of IPCC cleared and sixth assessment report emphasized that global warming is mostly due to manmade emissions of greenhouse gasses (mostly CO2). There is a growing consensus among many scientists that the anthropogenic cause of the increase of greenhouse gasses (GHGs) in the atmosphere is the main cause of the climate change indices. Global warming is being experienced across the world and mainly happened in Europe and the UK during the summer of 2022, when all previous temperature records were shattered. All of the UK’s 10 warmest years on record have occurred since 2002. The UK Met Office registered a provisional reading of 40.2 degrees Celsius (104.4 degrees Fahrenheit) at Heathrow Airport, breaking the record set just an hour earlier.

In the UK and Europe, winters are projected to become warmer and wetter on average, although cold or dry winters will still occur sometimes. The irony was the weather projection (of being extremely hot) for the year 2050 by the UK Met Office in 2020 turned out to be true just a couple of years after it was predicted. The main cause behind such warming is greenhouse gasses, which have been emitted so much in the atmosphere that even an absolute halt to their emissions will not be able to stop global warming for the next two decades. Many countries considered that a level of global warming close to 2°C would not be safe when there was little knowledge about the implications of a level of 1.5°C of warming for climate-related risks and in terms of the scale of mitigation ambition and its feasibility.

(IPCC 2020) Parties to the Paris Agreement therefore invited the IPCC to assess the impacts of global warming of 1.5°C above pre-industrial levels and the related emissions pathways that would achieve this enhanced global ambition. 

While a global issue, climate change is a major environmental and social challenge for countries like Nepal and other South Asian nations. According to the World Bank, although Nepal is responsible for only about 0.027 percent (annually 0.5 metric tonnes per capita) of the total annual carbon emissions of the world, it is experiencing increasing trends and the associated effects of climate change. The country has already observed an increase in dry periods, intense rainfall, flash floods, landslides, forest fires, glacial retreats and GLOF threats, and these factors collectively contribute to the vulnerable situation of rural and excluded people in general. It is combined with urban communities becoming more vulnerable to flooding as a result of localized heavy rains causing sudden flash floods into settlement areas that were developed without regard for the storm water runoff channel, which is now obstructed by houses and other built infrastructure.

Transformation of the glowing and radiating Himalayas of Nepal into dark rocks and retreating glaciers, conceding less water even to the perennial rivers, are some examples of how climate change is becoming a pressing issue and impacting Nepal. 

Although happening across the world with disproportionate impacts across nations and communities, climate change has shown its adversities more in rural and geographically-rugged areas, making the lives of people living there more vulnerable by affecting the state of the natural resources. 

About 79 percent of the total population resides in rural areas of Nepal and meets their energy demand from biomass combustion, particularly firewood, while about 11 percent of the total population living in urban areas is exposed to different levels of concentration of gasses, including GHGs. The annual demand for energy in Nepal is growing at a faster rate and is expected to reach 14,000+ ktoes (kilo tons of oil equivalent) by the end of 2020, as per the World Bank. This figure is trivial if compared to the global emissions; however, the people are paying the price.

Nepal, like many developing countries in South Asia, is more vulnerable to climate change and its consequences because it lacks the capacity to deal with the hazards associated with climate change. According to FAO, over 15m Nepalis rely on climate-sensitive sectors like agriculture and forestry for a living, accounting for roughly one-third of the country’s GDP. Agriculture also provides a livelihood to nearly 73 percent of the labor force. In addition, Nepal is a major tourist destination, and a significant fraction of foreign income depends on the country’s natural resources.

A heavy reliance on tourism and agriculture makes Nepal’s economy very sensitive to climate variability. Rural populations, notably those highly dependent on land-based resources for their livelihoods, are likely to be most adversely affected by the changes in ecosystems caused by climate change, according to ICIMOD. However, climate change creates opportunities and risks for  human development, opening the windows to cope with a new environment and harnessing the resources that are compatible with such changes. In order to address possible climate change impacts, adaptation practices should place emphasis on sustainable development. Adaptation to climate change has received increased attention in the scientific and policy debate and is seen as complementary to mitigation.

Also, there have been growing incidences of human-wildlife conflicts reported to be happening across the country, particularly in rural areas that are adjacent to the forest areas and are often the settlements of vulnerable and marginalized people. Due to the drying up of the winter rains and prolonged drought spells in the spring, the forest area runs out of water in its core area, pushing its wild animals to settlements in search of water, where they encounter people and their properties, such as cattle and cultivated crops, which often turn into human-wildlife conflicts.

In order to address the local perceptions about climate change, the ongoing impacts focusing on agriculture, and the adaptation measures and strategies adopted, comprehensive but site specific studies should be carried out in a country like Nepal, which has a diverse geography and varied landscape and has thereby formed climatic zones that change drastically from region to region. A generalized study for the entire country or an entire river basin does not work. There must be identification of small but critical climatic hotspots that have their own microclimatic systems, and assessment should be done accordingly to develop adaptation means based on their specific climate change and thereby induced issues. For climate-based studies, the historical hydro-meteorological data and their behavior become very important to understand how weather and its patterns have been affecting the livelihood practices of the community, along with the growing threats of potential disasters. Also, the study attempts to assess the people's awareness of the changing climate and the adaptation measures being undertaken to sustain their livelihoods amidst changing environmental conditions. 

To suggest and recommend any adaptation plans and coping strategies to such changes, it is important to understand the basics of climate change and its impacts on all aspects of activities that development practitioners often come across. Only understanding the issues related to climate change and its potential adversities across many aspects can enable development practitioners to plan and execute development projects holistically. Having such an idea beforehand will make dealing with community issues easier and can support the development actors in transforming the climate-vulnerable community into a climate-resilient community.  

The author is an environment and climate expert