The week that was

Dear readers,

Nepal’s coalition politics continued to dominate the headlines this week. With the secret agreement between KP Sharma Oli of CPN-UML and Sher Bahadur Deuba of Nepali Congress pushing the Pushpa Kamal Dahal-led government into minority, Dahal is set to face a trust vote in Parliament today. Despite being likely to lose his seat, Dahal has been working hard to put up a fight, engaging fringe parties to secure their votes.

The Rastriya Swatantra Party (RSP) has pledged its support to Dahal, keeping its ministers in place to bolster his plan to face Parliament. The CPN (Unified Socialist) has also decided to support Dahal, who is working to revive the ‘socialist forum’, a network of communist parties opposing big parties like NC and UML. But, the Rastriya Prajatantra Party has decided not to vote for PM Dahal. 

Despite Dahal’s efforts, he is expected to lose the vote of confidence, bringing the focus to the new government formation process. The NC and UML have decided that the President should initiate this process according to Article 76(2) of the Constitution, which involves forming a coalition government of two or more political parties.

If President Ram Chandra Paudel calls for this, Oli could become prime minister by Monday. However, the Maoists and fringe parties argue that if the current government fails to secure a vote of confidence, Article 76 (3) should apply. This article states that the President shall appoint the parliamentary leader of the party with the highest number of lawmakers, meaning Deuba could be appointed prime minister instead of Oli. How Oli and Deuba navigate this issue remains to be seen. If the President adopts 76(3) to form a new government, he is likely to be dragged into the controversy so he is likely to take a few days to consult with legal experts. 

Political parties and legal experts are divided on the government formation process. The President may consult legal experts and is likely to call on parties to form a government based on Article 76 (2), as there are precedents. However, any decision by the President is likely to be challenged in the Supreme Court, making the coming week crucial.

As the NC and UML prepare to form a new government, there is speculation about potential ministerial appointments. Within the NC, rumors suggest that Deuba’s wife, Arzu Rana Deuba, might become the foreign minister, and Ramesh Lekhak might become the home minister. Formal discussions to select ministers are likely to be limited, with Deuba making final decisions in consultation with senior leaders Shekhar Koirala, Gagan Thapa and Krishna Prasad Sitaula.

On the UML front, although there are standards for selecting ministers, past records show these are rarely implemented. Ultimately, Oli, who maintains strong control over the party, will finalize the list of ministers. The number of fringe parties joining the NC-UML government remains uncertain, but their support might be crucial for constitutional amendments.

The issue of constitutional amendments has stirred political circles. Oli has clarified that while there is a tentative agreement on amendments, no specifics or agreements on forming a commission for this purpose have been reached. NC General Secretary has stated that amending the Constitution requires a broad consensus from all political parties.

Next week will be hectic for politicians as they work to form the government and select ministers. NC and UML leaders have already started informal preparations for the new government’s policies and priorities. Both parties face the challenge of quickly forming the cabinet to avoid public pessimism. Deuba and Oli need to work diligently to maintain party unity, as dissatisfaction with ministerial appointments could lead to government collapse. A democratic and consultative approach is essential for managing internal party differences and ensuring the government’s longevity. Coordination between the government and party is key, and Oli and Dahal must make their collaborative efforts more effective. Although the agreement between NC and UML is promising, the lack of internal consultations and discussions may hinder its success.

Another notable story this week was the expulsion of Mukul Dhakal as the RSP general secretary for alleged disciplinary violations, though he remains an ordinary member. Dhakal responded to the party’s decision by holding a press conference where he accused party chair, Rabi Lamichhane, of passport fraud and misappropriation of cooperative funds. Opinions on Dhakal’s expulsion are divided, with some viewing it as growing  political intolerance within the RSP and others seeing Dhakal’s behavior as anarchic. Dhakal’s expulsion and his allegations come as a huge blow to the emerging party that enjoys considerable public support.

In provincial politics, all provincial governments except Koshi and Madhes are set to undergo another shakeup following the NC-UML alliance. The UML has already withdrawn its support for the provincial governments in Lumbini and Bagmati provinces. Forming new provincial governments may take time as the NC and UML focus on the federal government.

Meanwhile, the monsoon season has brought heavy rains, causing floods and landslides that have blocked highways and disrupted transportation, leading to a spike in vegetable prices in Kathmandu. Kanchanpur experienced severe flooding on July 8, recording the heaviest rainfall in 78 years. A government representative has been sent to investigate the situation, highlighting the impact of climate change on rainfall patterns.

Also this week, a parliamentary committee traveled to Pokhara to investigate alleged corruption in the construction of Pokhara International Airport. The Commission for the Investigation of Abuse of Authority is already conducting its own investigation. It’s crucial that this issue is handled impartially to avoid politicization. The newly constructed airport in Bhaktapur’s Nalinchowk also drew attention this week, as pilots refused to fly there due to security concerns, indicating haphazard infrastructure development without proper study.

That’s all for this week. I’ll be back with more updates next week. 

Have a great weekend!