Can the NC-UML alliance bring stability?

The Nepali Congress (NC) and CPN-UML have signed an agreement to amend the constitution adopted in 2015, aiming to address the nation's current crises. Achieving these ambitious goals requires substantial unity, maturity, and understanding between the parties. Leaders from both NC and UML assert that the parties have committed to cooperation at least until the next elections in 2027.

However, the critical question remains: Can these two parties maintain harmony in government? This concern arises from their historical track record. For example, in 2018, the UML and Maoist Center merged to form a new party and government, promising political stability and development. Yet, internal conflicts among top leaders—KP Sharma Oli and Pushpa Kamal Dahal—led to the collapse of both the government and the party, plunging the country into renewed instability.  Similarly, NC and UML failed to collaborate effectively after the 2015 constitution amendment.

The current agreement is the result of at least three months of back-channel negotiations between UML Chairperson Oli and NC President Sher Bahadur Deuba, along with key facilitators. The agreement was kept secret until Monday. Oli and Deuba initially favored an additional month for thorough preparations, but a leak of the agreement necessitated prompt decisions, hence their cautious approach to forming the government.

The primary task of the new coalition government will be the critical and complex constitution amendment. This requires consensus among the major parties that supported the 2015 constitution drafting process. Consequently, NC and UML are focusing on forming a national unity government. A leader involved in the negotiations stated: “The two parties plan to amend several provisions in phases, starting with changes to the electoral system, followed by other issues.”

The NC-UML alliance also aims to counter challenges from emerging parties like the Rastriya Swatantra Party and independent candidates such as Kathmandu's Mayor Balendra Shah. Although NC and UML are principal competitors, they view these new parties as a common threat to their voter bases. 

To address these challenges, the new NC-UML coalition must tackle corruption, ensure good governance, create jobs, and initiate plans for economic recovery. Failure to address these issues will likely provoke a backlash against the coalition government. Following the agreement, both parties have expedited the process of forming a new government, with formal endorsements from their respective parties, and are now waiting for Prime Minister Dahal’s resignation. 

In the absence of a single-party majority, the government formation process will proceed under Article 76(2) of the constitution, which allows for a coalition government. NC and UML have urged Dahal to resign to facilitate the formation of a national unity government. Although they have signed a document focusing on government formation and constitutional amendments, it has not yet been made public. On Wednesday, NC endorsed the agreements, although party leaders have not yet reviewed the document.

NC has also urged Prime Minister Dahal to resign promptly. The party argues that since more than two-thirds of Parliament members oppose him, Dahal should step down on moral and political grounds. However, Dahal cites the constitutional provision granting him 30 days to seek a vote of confidence after a coalition member withdraws support. According to the agreement between NC and UML, Oli will be appointed as prime minister under Article 76(2) of the constitution. Given the agreement to form a national unity government, NC insists it is imperative for Dahal to step aside.

To achieve their objectives, NC and UML must garner broader support from other parties. By Wednesday, the Rastriya Prajatantra Party and the Mahantha Thakur-led Loktantrik Samajbadi Party had pledged their support for the NC-UML coalition. The coalition's base is expected to expand with additional parties joining the alliance.

Key contents of the agreement between NC and UML

• Promoting national interest
• Taming corruption to maintain good governance
• Maintaining political stability
• Amendment the constitution after a thorough review
• Strengthening economy
• Rotational leadership between Oli and Deuba 

UML withdraws support to government

CPN-UML has officially withdrawn its support to the government, effectively rendering the Dahal-led government into a minority. UML leader Mahesh Bartaula said: “We gave Prime Minister Dahal the opportunity to pave the way for the formation of a national government, but he didn’t do so. Hence we have decided to withdraw the support.” With the UML, the major coalition partner in the Dahal government, pulling out its support, Prime Minister Dahal now has two options: Resign on moral grounds or to take a vote of confidence. Dahal has maintained that he will go for a floor test in Parliament.