Story behind formation of new coalition

The Nepali Congress and CPN-UML, the first and second largest parties in Parliament, have agreed to form a national unity government. This coalition aims to amend the constitution adopted in 2015. 

According to the agreement, UML chair KP Sharma Oli will lead the government initially to push for constitutional amendments and then hand over power to NC leader Sher Bahadur Deuba to conduct the 2027 elections. Cross-party leaders acknowledge that amending key provisions of the constitution will be challenging. The NC-UML alliance anticipates strong opposition from the CPN (Maoist Center), Madhes-based parties, and other groups that support federalism, secularism, and identity-based federalism.

The new alliance needs to muster a two-thirds majority in Parliament for any constitutional amendment which seems feasible. The tentative agreement between NC and UML includes changes to the current electoral system, which many believe is one of the main causes of political instability and frequent government changes.

The two parties are of the view that the current mixed system of first-past-the-post and proportional representation makes it difficult to achieve a single-party majority. While leaders of the two major parties say that frequent coalition changes since the 2022 election highlight this issue, the electoral system is not solely to blame for instability. The new government also plans to remove the provision of secularism from the constitution, leaving the space blank. Additionally, NC and UML have agreed to revisit the current three-tier federal structure, considering it a significant burden onto the state. 

Despite their push for a national unity government, it is unlikely to materialize fully, as the Maoist party and the Rastriya Swatantra Party have decided not to join the future Oli-led government. However, the NC-UML coalition expects to achieve two-thirds support in Parliament with the help of fringe parties. NC and UML are reaching out to fringe parties in order to increase the strength of the government. 

It remains to be seen whether the fringe parties would wholly buy into the propositions put forward by NC and UML. Former prime minister Madhav Kumar Nepal’s party, CPN (Unified Socialist), criticized the latest coalition, likening it to tyranny. 

Notably, the leadership of both NC and UML have not yet held intra-party consultations about the content of the constitutional amendments. Shankar Pokharel, UML general secretary of the NC-UML coalition, emphasized their primary agenda is constitutional amendment and called on all parties to join the national unity government.

The CPN (Maoist Center) has expressed strong opposition to changing the electoral system, viewing it as a regressive step. The Rastriya Prajatantra Party, however, views the agreement between NC and UML positively, believing that the current constitution cannot address the country’s problems.

Background of NC-UML coalition 

In 2015, during the constitution-making process, NC and UML formed a coalition government that successfully delivered the constitution. Initially, NC was supposed to support UML for the coalition government, but it backtracked on its commitment, straining the relationship between the two parties. This tension peaked when UML chair Oli dissolved Parliament in 2020.

Over the past two years, NC leader Deuba was reluctant to engage with Oli, fearing it might affect NC’s relationship with the Maoist Center. When the Maoists sided with UML in March, NC leaders including Shekhar Koirala began reaching out to UML, but results were slow. There were voices within both parties advocating for a coalition to ensure government stability, though some were against it due to the competitive nature of the parties and concerns about weakening the opposition.

At the same time, Deputy Prime Minister and Minister for Home Affairs Rabi Lamichhane was digging the files of some NC leaders accused in various corruption cases. Lately, with the surfacing of various corruption scandals, it was natural for the ranks of NC-UML to be fearful. As more scandals like the Giribandhu Tea Estate began to unravel, the situation became increasingly uncertain. Lamichhane had told Parliament on Monday that preparations were underway to form a powerful commission to investigate 25 corruption scandals.

Talks between NC and UML progressed three months ago  through a facilitator when Oli was in Jhapa for a week-long visit.  But the contents of the meetings were kept highly secret. On Saturday, Deuba and Oli held a candid and open discussion at Balkot, Oli’s residence. On Monday night, two top leaders signed in a document of agreement which remains top secret. Before the Balkot meeting, two secret meetings happened in Kathmandu. 

Despite initial distrust, several rounds of talks led Oli and Deuba to agree that the country faced a crisis due to constitutional flaws and the Dahal government’s mishandling of the situation. Oli was particularly frustrated with the Dahal-led government’s monopoly on decision-making, especially regarding the budget. As a result, UML withdrew its support from the government, requiring the prime minister to take a vote of confidence within 30 days. The formation of a new Oli-led government now depends on Prime Minister Dahal’s actions. Actually, Oli was in favor of keeping the agreement in secret with a plan to complete the entire process within a month but it was leaked in the media, that is why there was slow progress on Tuesday. 

Was Dahal kept in the dark?

Increased meetings between Oli and Dahal had raised concerns in Baluwatar. The prime minister was briefed by the Home Minister about these informal meetings. 

A recent meeting in Balkot prompted Prime Minister Dahal to invite Oli for talks, where Dahal asked Oli if he was forming a government with NC. Oli dismissed the reports, focusing on left unity until the general elections. However, after NC and UML agreed to form a new government, Dahal invited Oli again, urging transparency about the agreement with NC. 

Let’s briefly talk about the coalition of politics mainly after 2022. In the 2022 national elections, Dahal’s CPN (Maoist Center) emerged as the third-largest party with 32 seats. Despite an initial proposal from UML to form a coalition government, NC claimed the leadership and did not support the Maoists, despite an electoral alliance. 

Eventually, UML supported Dahal for the premiership, but he switched alliances multiple times between NC and UML. Dahal believed he could remain in power by playing between the first and second largest parties and was confident that external forces would not allow Oli to become prime minister.

Meanwhile, the leaders of both major parties were tired of the ‘opportunism’ and ‘turncoat’ character shown by Dahal, the third power in the parliament. Lately, Prime Minister Dahal had even started publicly speaking about the ‘magic number’. He began expressing the sentiment that he could remain prime minister for the entire five years by playing between UML and Congress.

Dahal’s expressions certainly unsettled Oli, eager to climb the chair of power, and Deuba, who wanted to become prime minister once again, sooner or later. Dahal’s statements violated the ‘gentlemen’s agreement’ of rotation with Oli. Oli had not taken Dahal from the alliance with NC to let him be prime minister alone for five years.

Had he understood the situation, Dahal could have found it easier to ally with NC. Even in an alliance with NC, Dahal would have had to give up the prime minister’s position to Deuba after two and a half years. Possibly, Dahal chose the difficult and survival path post-election? However, even after collaborating with UML, the ongoing dialogue with NC did not create an environment of trust. Meanwhile, Dahal also signaled a change in strategy. He began demanding that Oli allow him to run the entire period with the condition of unifying the party until the next election and stepping down from active politics to become the president. Oli clearly did not like this proposal.

In a political environment where betrayal has become a competition, Oli took the initiative this time. He went to Baluwatar, whispered sweet assurances in Dahal’s ear, and gave form to the new relationship. Dahal’s practice of betrayal with the magical number has become a strong fear of turning into a political culture, of which today’s players of the betrayal game could also become victims someday.

Future course

It seems likely that Oli will become prime minister. Dahal might attempt to break the agreement by offering the prime ministership position to Deuba, but this is unlikely to succeed. The constitutional amendment process will be challenging, potentially unleashing tensions. It remains to be seen how NC and UML will convince all stakeholders to support the amendments.

The UML has requested Prime Minister Dahal to resign by Wednesday. A leader revealed that the UML Secretariat meeting on Tuesday decided to ask Prime Minister Dahal to step down. 

This would pave the way for the formation of a new government under Article 76 (2) of the Constitution, according to the agreement between the UML and the Congress.

The UML has also invited other parties to join in forming a national consensus government led by Oli. According to sources, some parties including CPN (Maoist Center) could suffer a split in the run-up to the constitution amendment process.