Ripples of Balkot talks

Sher Bahadur Deuba and KP Sharma Oli, leaders of the first and second largest parties in the House of Representatives (HoR), had their first private meeting in more than two years at an undisclosed location three weeks ago. The two leaders had another meeting at Balkot, Oli’s residence, on Saturday.  

While meetings among top leaders of different parties should not be a big deal, the meetings between Deuba and Oli have created a stir both domestically and internationally. Both leaders have maintained strict secrecy about the contents of their discussion.

These meetings have likely caused significant unease in Baluwatar, the prime minister’s official residence, as well. This is why Prime Minister Pushpa Kamal Dahal called Oli early Sunday morning and scheduled a meeting in the afternoon. In the meeting, Dahal and Oli discussed the critical political situation of the country.

Before March 4, when Dahal broke away from Deuba’s Nepali Congress and joined forces with the Oli-led CPN-UML, Deuba repeatedly declined Oli’s requests for a meeting, fearing it might upset Dahal. However, after the breakdown in coalition, Deuba was willing to engage with Oli to form an alliance against Dahal, who leads the CPN (Maoist Center). Since then, a faction of the NC, including President Deuba, has been working to dismantle the current coalition in favor of a partnership between the first and second largest parties. The UML, however, is divided on this issue. Nonetheless, there have been increased talks between the two sides in recent weeks. Following his meeting with Oli, Deuba has called a meeting of the party’s office bearers for Monday.

According to NC Chief Secretary Krishna Prasad Poudel, the meeting will delve into the contemporary issues. Multiple persons privy to this development told ApEx that there are many issues that NC and UML are discussing in order to resolve the problems that country is facing. There are reports that UML Chairperson Oli is unhappy with the immature approach being adopted by Prime Minister Dahal and his deputy and Minister for Home Affairs Rabi Lamichhane. 

One UML leader said Oli is of the view that instead of focusing on service delivery and addressing the economic crisis that country is facing, both Dahal and Lamichhane are engaged in political stunts. There are also concerns that some ministers in the Dahal government are reportedly using corruption allegations as a political weapon to retaliate against opponents. 

The UML leader said Oli has advised Prime Minister Dahal against following the ‘Pakistani model’ of politics, where parties in power often use corruption charges to jail political opponents.

The issues extend beyond the government. The country’s economic situation is dire, there is growing pessimism among the population, and youth emigration is alarmingly high. Geopolitical tensions have further impacted the domestic political situation, and religious tensions are rising in some parts of the country. Additionally, the current constitution, adopted a decade ago, has several flaws that need addressing to ensure political stability.

Both NC and UML leaders argue that it is time to review and amend the constitution. Their current negotiations focus not on forming a government but on addressing the political situation. There is a growing realization that national unity among major parties is indispensable to ensure political stability and to inspire hope among citizens. The UML is advocating for a national government including the NC, UML, and the Maoist party. If the Maoist party is unwilling, some leaders say, the NC and UML could form a government capable of amending the constitution.

To amend the constitution, parties may agree to form an expert panel, with Parliament initiating political changes later. NC and UML particularly want to change the current mixed First-Past-the-Post (FPTP) and Proportional Representation (PR) electoral system, which they believe is the primary cause of political instability in Nepal.

Within the NC, senior leader Shekhar Koirala has been leading talks with the UML and other leaders. They believe that as long as the current electoral system remains, a single-party majority government is almost impossible. Provincial governments have become unstable, with related cases reaching the Supreme Court. Along with the electoral system, parties might also discuss changes to the secularism provision of the constitution.

While immediate changes are unlikely, the ongoing negotiations between the NC and UML could yield substantial results in the coming weeks. Both parties believe that without addressing these issues before the next election, maintaining political stability over the next 10-15 years will be impossible, which would harm the country’s progress and stability.

There’s no progress in status quo: Oli

CPN-UML Chair KP Sharma Oli has said that the country cannot move ahead in its current state. Speaking at a program organized in Kathmandu on Sunday, he mentioned that no one should insist that there is progress in status quo.

The UML leader emphasized the need for entrepreneurship and professionalism to modernize agriculture and create job opportunities. To rise above poverty, he said the country should increase its agricultural output.

“We need to increase production through modernization and the use of technology, but government policies have not been able to address this. We need a solid policy for this to happen,” said Oli.

He also expressed concern that villages were becoming deserted as the produce from the hills could no longer sustain livelihoods. He mentioned that the biggest challenge for Nepal currently is to bring the population below the absolute poverty line to a state where they can have enough to eat.

Oli also said that he has advised Prime Minister Pushpa Kamal Dahal not to get entangled in minor appointments and to move forward considering the bleak circumstances of the country and its citizens.