State of the economy: Inflation down, forex and remittances up

Nepal Rastra Bank has reported that inflation was around 4.5 percent in the last Nepali month of Baishakh. According to the central bank's report, which includes data from the first 10 months of the fiscal year 2080-81, the annual point-to-point consumer inflation in Baishakh was 4.40 percent, down from 7.41 percent in the same month last year.

In Baishakh, the inflation rate in the food and beverage category was 6.27 percent, while in the non-food and services category, it was 2.96 percent. The annual point-to-point price index for the vegetable subgroup under the food and beverage category increased by 23.11 percent, pulses and legumes by 10.85 percent, spices by 8.98 percent, food and food-related items by 7.42 percent, and sugar and sugar-related items by 7.25 percent. However, the price index for the ghee and oil subgroup decreased by 7.13 percent.

The annual point-to-point price index for various goods and services under the non-food and services category increased by 12.26 percent, education by 5.64 percent, and clothing and footwear by 3.46 percent, while the communication subgroup's price index decreased by 0.48 percent.

In Baishakh, the annual point-to-point consumer inflation was 4.30 percent in Kathmandu Valley, 4.32 percent in the Tarai, 4.7 percent in the Hills, and 4.22 percent in the Mountains. In the same month last year, inflation rates in these regions were 7.68 percent, 7.15 percent, 7.57 percent, and 7.12 percent, respectively.

Forex reserves at Rs 1.94trn

The central bank's report also highlighted foreign exchange reserves, which increased by 26.2 percent from Rs 1.53trn at the end of Asar 2080 to Rs 1.94trn in Baishakh 2081. In terms of US dollars, foreign exchange reserves rose by 24.2 percent from $11.71bn at the end of Asar 2080 to $14.54bn at the end of Baishakh 2081.

Of the total foreign exchange reserves, those held by the central bank were Rs 1.34bn at the end of Asar 2080, which increased by 28 percent to reach Rs 1.72bn at the end of Baishakh 2081. Reserves held by banks and financial institutions (excluding Nepal Rastra Bank) were Rs 193.59bn at the end of Asar 2080, which increased by 13.8 percent to Rs 220.38bn at the end of Baishakh 2081.

According to the central bank, based on import data from the first 10 months of the fiscal year 2080-81, the banking sector's foreign exchange reserves are sufficient to cover 15.1 months of goods imports and 12.6 months of goods and services imports.

Remittances reach Rs 1.19trn

According to Nepal Rastra Bank, remittances increased by 19.2 percent to Rs 1.19trn in the first 10 months of the current fiscal year 2080-81. 

Although the number of people going abroad for employment was high in the past two years and has decreased slightly this year, the total number, including new labor permits and renewals, is still more than 500,000. Due to the high number of Nepalis going for foreign employment in the past two years, remittances have seen a significant increase.

In the first 10 months of the current fiscal year, 374,887 Nepalis received final labor approval for foreign employment, and 237,893 received renewed labor approval. In the same period last fiscal year, 421,279 Nepalis received final labor approval for foreign employment, and 238,976 received renewed labor approval.

During this period, net transfers increased by 17.2 percent to Rs 1.30trn.