Heavy rains, extreme climate events likely this monsoon

The Department of Hydrology and Meteorology has said there is a possibility of heavy rainfall across the country during the monsoon season.

According to the Department of Hydrology and Meteorology, Kaski, Syangja, Lamjung, and southern parts of Manang and Mustang are likely to receive heavy rains this year. Likewise, heavy rains have been forecast for the eastern and northern regions of Gulmi, and the western and northern regions of Gorkha. Similarly, Saptari, major parts of Siraha, southern regions of Dhansuha, Sarlahi, and Mahottari, the western region of Sunsari, and the southern region of Udayapur are also likely to receive heavy rainfall this monsoon.

Last year, Nepal received below-average rainfall due to the El Niño conditions in the Pacific Ocean during the monsoon season.

Officials of the department say Darchula, Baitadi, and Bajhang, western regions of Bajura and Humla, the northern region of Doti, and northwestern regions of Dadeldhura will receive average rainfall this year. Likewise, in central and eastern Nepal, Ramechhap, Sindhuli, Okhaldhunga, Khotang, Bhojpur, Dhankuta, and Udayapur are expected to get average rainfall. The eastern region of Kavre, the western region of Taplejung and Tehrathum, the southern region of Sankhuwasabha, Solukhumbu, and Dolakha, the eastern region of Sarlahi, and the northern regions of Mahottari, Dhanusa, Siraha, and Sunsari are also likely to receive average rainfall.

"Apart from areas expected to get heavy or average rainfall, some regions are likely to get slightly above-average precipitation. Although rainfall will be higher than average, both maximum and minimum temperatures are projected to be above average," meteorologist Sudarshan Humagain, speaking at a program in Kathmandu. "We, however, lack the technology and expertise for quantitative forecasts."

Nepal has been making monsoon rainfall projections based on the World Meteorological Organization's global and regional climate information production system patterns since 2020, the department's own monsoon rainfall forecast model, and the outlook of the South Asian Climate Outlook Forum.

According to Humagain, there is a 35-65% probability of both maximum and minimum temperatures being above average in most parts of the country this year. The maximum temperature is likely to be average in the western region of Karnali, the central region of Gandaki, and the northeastern region of Koshi Province. Similarly, the minimum temperature is expected to be average in some parts of the far-western region, Gandaki Province and Bagmati Province.

Nepal receives around 80% of its total rainfall during the monsoon season. Nepal's total annual precipitation is around 1,600 mm.

Meteorologists say that since the world is facing the impacts of climate change, extreme weather events cannot be ruled out in Nepal as well. They say there is a risk of such incidents in Nepal as abnormal rainfall, floods, and inundation occurred this year in places like Dubai and Afghanistan.

There is also a high risk of floods and landslides this year due to massive wildfires during the dry season. Since the water consumption capacity of the land decreases because of wildfires, the chances of floods and landslides are high, they added.