Recurring Prisoner’s Dilemma in political landscape

Nepal’s political scenario lies in a complex game of power transition that seems more evident of a sensational drama than of governance in the coalition. Parties have appeared to be the players, repeatedly messing up relationships as a move in a high-stakes game and shuffling alliances in a merry-go-round. Each time parties shift their alliances, they end up in a situation where no one trusts the other completely, much like a Prisoner’s Dilemma. 

The Prisoner’s Dilemma, a concept rooted in game theory, mirrors this situation—it’s like a puzzle where individuals must choose between cooperation and self-interest. Cooperation yields modest gains for both, but betrayal can lead to significant benefits for one at the expense of the other. It highlights the tension between individual rationality and collective well-being, as both players can benefit most if they cooperate, but they risk being exploited if the other player defects.

As we delve deeper into Nepal’s political landscape, the parallels between the Prisoner’s Dilemma and the recurring struggle among major parties become increasingly apparent. At the crux of this political puzzle are three major parties—each struggling for governance. Yet, with every round of government formation, it is hard to overcome trust between each other and two dominant parties opt for short-term alliances that eventually collapse due to deep mistrust. This can be said as a puzzle of cooperation versus self-interest. 

This leaves one party consistently excluded from government, always seeking to dissolve the arrangement, similar to a player in a game who keeps trying to undermine the rules to gain an advantage. Meanwhile, the other two parties face a tough task: they try hard to keep their government running smoothly, even though the mistrust between them is growingly persistent. It's like they're caught in a big tangle of suspicion, reminiscent of multiple instances of the Prisoner's Dilemma or even nested iterations of the dilemma within the broader political landscape. Imagine it as if there are many small puzzles, all connected to the big puzzle of politics. Each decision they make affects the others, and it’s a constant struggle to find the best way forward i.e., political stability.

The constant pursuit of short-term gains by political parties worsens this cycle of instability. Each party is so focused on the present that they overlook the lasting damage to the nation's economic foundation. It's like being caught in a never-ending loop which reflects the idea of the Prisoner's Dilemma played out in an infinite game setting. In this scenario, where there's no clear end, the individuals keep repeating the same self-interested moves, perpetuating a cycle of mistrust and conflict. This kind of game is also referred to as tit-for-tat strategies, meaning if you cooperate, you will be met with cooperation, but if you defect, you will also face defection. Nepal’s political playbook has just been an echo back of each other's defections for an infinite period that has led to Nash equilibrium no player can do better by unilaterally changing their strategy. Until one of the three parties breaks this cycle, the entwined web of political instability is likely to persist. 

The consequences of games have badly resulted in an economic drop. The situation is challenging for businesses, investors and the nation overall. The lack of economic opportunities at home is strongly forcing youths to explore abroad and the number of people leaving the country is exponentially increasing. There have been no observable signs of improvement in inflation and trade deficits over a decade timeframe. And it is everyday people who are suffering the most—the farmers, entrepreneurs, and corporate workers trying to support their families. They’re caught in the middle of political games, unable to pursue their dreams as the country’s economy flounders.

So, what's the way forward? It begins with a fundamental shift in mindset—a recognition of cooperation and trust. The parties embracing a common minimum agenda with a shared vision for Nepal’s future is the need of the time. Political parties must rise above the fray of short-term gains and embrace a vision that prioritizes the long-term prosperity of the nation. Moreover, reviewing the election system could mitigate the chances of mistrust among the parties and could pull out of the defective equilibrium. This is the key for Nepal to break free from the cycle of its recurring Prisoner's Dilemma and pave the way for a brighter future—where stability, prosperity, and trust will be the priorities.

The author is a chemical engineer and student of energy systems in Germany, also passionate about renewable energy adaptation and politics in Nepal