AI: Potentials and perils

Not so long ago, Yuval Noah Harari, a well-known historian, warned, “Once Artificial Intelligence (AI) makes better decisions than us about careers and perhaps even relationships, our concept of humanity and of life will have to change.” 

In his book, one of the most read in modern times, ‘21 Lessons for the 21st Century,’ published in 2018, Harari cautioned future generations vis-a-vis different topics, among which the threat of AI is one. A number of researchers, sociologists, computer scientists, development practitioners, tech optimists and pessimists have been making similar predictions about AI.

Undoubtedly, the emergence of AI created euphoria as the internet and printing press had done in the past. The printing press and the internet brought about disruption in the information ecosystem, breach of hierarchy and assault on power dynamics; AI has intensified this process at an unimaginable scale and speed. 

With accelerated generation of data, application of algorithms and competitive race on AI across the globe, a new world order is emerging with tech giants on top. Already enslaved, a huge section of humanity is at the receiving end, while those playing with AI are spreading optimism and enjoying the ‘winner-take-all’ model of tech business.

Amidst all this, the warning of Harari counts much. With the hijacking of the brain, machines fed with AI have begun giving more precise results than the humans. As such, is it simply ease, please and convenience to humans or grave threats to human brain and cognition? It warrants serious debate and discussion.

When OpenAI launched ChatGPT in Nov 2022, it quickly triggered shock waves globally. The content generation in no time dazzled the human. Give a command, and it serves you instantly. Google was evidently dwarfed by ChatGPT. From a student’s homework to university research, it dominated the landscapes of modern information, knowledge, innovation and technology. Co-authoring with ChatGPT became a new fad, but the app has courted its share of criticism as well. Many launched astute analysis and several journals banned this app as the co-author. 

Despite this, OpenAI continued advancements, advancing to ChatGPT-4 from ChatGPT-3 in March 2023. It has undoubtedly marveled the creation of diverse contents—text, image, video. 

Isn’t it a better decision than humans as Harari viewed?

Vanishing jobs 

Some months back, with the onset of winter, Facebook and Twitter in Nepal were rife with AI-generated images showing some people ready to eat hot steamed dumplings (momo) while some ready to grab cups of steaming tea and coffee. Now, the media have begun using relevant images as well. 

There are not simply the cases of AI benefits, but also of the assault on humanity. With AI creating the content (text-story, poem, play, photo, video), a large number of jobs are likely to vanish, posing a serious threat to humans. Even in Nepal, many content writers, translators and editors have lost jobs, thereby facing a dent in their incomes and financial sustainability.

In this wake, a research report released recently by the International Monetary Fund (IMF) must have taken many by surprise. The IMF report, named ‘Gen-AI: Artificial Intelligence and the Future of Work’, states, “Almost 40 percent of global employment is exposed to AI, with advanced economies at greater risk, but also better poised to exploit AI benefits than emerging markets and developing economies. In advanced economies, about 60 percent of jobs are exposed to AI, due to the prevalence of cognitive-task-oriented jobs.”

Moreover, the report warned that ‘a new measure of potential AI complementarity suggests that, of these, about half may be negatively affected by AI’. “Overall exposure is 40 percent in emerging market economies and 26 percent in low-income countries,” per the report.

AI-powered justice 

Meanwhile, a news story on the positive side of AI has been hogging the headlines worldwide. Per the report, UK judges can use AI in writing legal notes/opinion, with caution. The Nepali media also covered the Associated Press news, which states: “The Courts and Tribunals Judiciary last month said AI could help write opinions but stressed it should not be used for research or legal analyses because the technology can fabricate information and provide misleading, inaccurate and biased information.”

The above cases are indeed examples of ‘creative disruption’ of AI. As the story suggests, caution is required with regard to the fabrication of information, the spread of misinformation, disinformation, mal-information and deep-fake with the use of AI. 

The year 2024 is an election year, with polls taking place in India, the US, and the UK. Whether AI will influence electoral integrity has been a cause for concern and researchers are conducting serious research on the topic. The super-speed of disinformation and deep fakes with AI is a headache for many professionals and governments.

Tech giants draw flak

Moreover, the UN Secretary-General, Antonio Guterres, recently lambasted tech companies at the World Economic Forum in Davos, Switzerland. The Guardian wrote, “Big technology companies are recklessly pursuing profits from artificial intelligence and urgent action is needed to mitigate the risks from the rapidly growing sector, the head of the United Nations has warned.”

When it comes to the regulation of AI, the US, the EU and China are large players. The US has fostered a liberal competitive digital atmosphere, thereby contributing to a cut-throat AI race among tech companies, while China is focused on cyber sovereignty and advancing AI accordingly. Equally important is the role of EU countries in advancing research and seeking ethical and responsible use of AI. The EU seems engrossed in emerging as a global leader of tech regulation. 

It is time to ponder over the spurt of AI, which is gripping us at scale. We are at a watershed moment where non-humans are sprawling and stalking the sacrosanct terrain of humans—the cognition—and rendering the humans irrelevant. 

Informed debate a must

As the yawning digital divide has already crippled poor and marginalized countries and communities, the tech empires that dominate the global AI race are likely to further afflict the vulnerable ones. Networking, collaboration, knowledge and information creation and sharing without jeopardizing national interest is essential for countries like Nepal to reap benefit from AI. In this regard, the Ministry of Communications and Information Technology is learnt to be preparing an AI policy. The ministry must facilitate and forward the debate and discussions on AI under the leadership of informed, educated and intellect milieu rather than mediocre rallying.