Dahal’s China visit and Nepal’s foreign policy

Prime Minister Pushpa Kamal Dahal’s recent visit to China has significant implications for Nepal’s foreign policy. This visit comes at a crucial time, coinciding with the Asian Games, and highlights Nepal’s evolving foreign policy and its intricate relationship with its northern neighbor. Due to the internal conflicts and a political opportunity resulting from the dissolution of the Parliament in July 2021, Dahal transitioned an alliance with the then NCP leader KP Sharma Oli to the Nepali Congress, signaling a noteworthy shift in Nepal’s political landscape, with far-reaching implications for foreign policy. Both domestic and international factors drive this realignment. It raises questions about Nepal’s relationships with major global players, particularly China and India, as well as its standing in the global arena and the geopolitics of South Asia.

A complex relationship

Dynamic shifts and fluctuations have marked a complex relationship between Dahal and China. At the outset of his first term as prime minister in 2008, Dahal established a strong alliance with Beijing, marked by reciprocal support. However, the course of their engagement has been far from steady. In the lead-up to the 2022 elections, Dahal formed an electoral alliance with Prime Minister KP Sharma Oli-led NCP to consolidate political power. Unfortunately, this alliance proved short-lived and ultimately resulted in a dramatic political split, strained Dahal’s relations with Oli and China, which had firmly supported the Oli-led government. This nuanced history illustrates the intricacies of Dahal’s interactions with China, showcasing the challenges and fluctuations in their relationship over the years.

A balancing act

Dahal’s recent move toward a closer alignment with the United States and India signifies Nepal’s deliberate pursuit of a balanced foreign relations strategy. His choice of India as his first official visit during his third tenure as prime minister earlier in the year demonstrates a clear intent to strengthen ties with that country. However, this diplomatic realignment is driven by the imperative to adapt to evolving global dynamics and safeguard Nepal’s sovereignty, given the complex interests of its more powerful neighbors. Rooted in Nepal’s enduring struggle for independence and its aspirations on the global stage, this commitment to a delicate equilibrium reflects the nation’s historical context. As a landlocked nation located between regional giants, Nepal’s leaders face the ongoing challenge of skillfully managing these relationships to protect their country’s interests and secure its continued independence in the international arena.

Chinese interests

China’s interests in Nepal are multifaceted and rooted in its broader geopolitical objectives. One key aspect is Nepal’s adherence to the one-China policy, which aligns with China’s core interests regarding Taiwan and Tibet. This alignment is crucial for China’s territorial integrity. Additionally, China seeks Nepal’s support in international diplomacy, development and security initiatives. Furthermore, Nepal’s involvement in the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) theoretically offers China a pathway to expand its regional economic influence and infrastructure.  However, the nine BRI projects signed in Nepal have yet to materialize, partly due to uncertainties surrounding their funding modalities. Strengthening connectivity with Nepal is a strategic avenue for China to extend its influence into South Asia, bolstering its regional presence.

Lastly, China’s ambition to cultivate a trusted and ‘strategic’ relationship with Nepal, as articulated by President Xi Jinping during his visit to Nepal in 2019, has remained a blueprint to direct China’s engagements in Nepal. Nevertheless, Nepal faces the challenge of balancing these multifaceted interests while safeguarding its sovereignty and national interests, demanding adept negotiation skills and a nuanced approach to harmonize democratic principles with its stance on the one-China policy, reflecting a delicate nature of Nepal’s relationship with its influential northern neighbor.

A ceremonial visit

While presented as an effort to strengthen Nepal-China relations, Dahal’s recent visit to China appeared more ceremonial than substantive. Despite engaging with high-ranking Chinese officials, including President Xi Jinping, and signing 12 agreements, the visit faced limited diplomatic expectations. There was widespread anticipation for Dahal to advocate Nepal’s national interests, particularly concerning the recent contentious Chinese map affecting Nepali territory. The joint statement of the visit primarily consisted of diplomatic pleasantries and reaffirmations of historical ties, with Nepal restating its commitment to the one-China policy but failing to secure reciprocal assurances regarding its concerns. While there were some encouraging elements in the agreements, such as border point reopenings and cooperation in sectors like the BRI, connectivity networks and renewable energy projects, the absence of a much-awaited Project Implementation Plan Agreement and the failure to convert the loan for Pokhara International Airport into a grant were notable misses for Nepal. While potentially financially challenging, Dahal’s commitment to exploring the feasibility of the Jilong/Keyrung-Kathmandu Cross-Border Railway was a notable development.

Dahal’s prioritization of the Global Development Initiative (GDI) over Global Security Initiative (GSI) and Global Civilization Initiative (GCI) underscores Nepal’s cautious and balanced approach to international security matters. This stance reflects Nepal’s commitment to avoiding entanglement in major power rivalries and safeguarding its sovereignty. Nepal aims to maintain stability in a volatile region by emphasizing development over security, in line with its historical stance of neutrality and non-alignment. The visit ultimately became a standard bilateral exchange; ambitious agreements hold promise, but their impact on the ground level has been limited, reflecting their token nature. 

The way forward

As Prime Minister Dahal’s visit to China marks a pivotal moment for Nepal’s foreign policy, the nation stands at a critical juncture, given its evolving political landscape and changing alliances with regional and international powers. Navigating this landscape requires strategic diplomacy to safeguard Nepal’s sovereignty. Success hinges on the effective execution of agreements and carefully evaluating their implications, shaping Nepal’s foreign policy trajectory to align with its national interests and global aspirations while fostering confidence-building measures with China.

The author is a recent graduate with a Master’s degree in International Relations from South Asian University, New Delhi and is a junior researcher at the Centre for Social Inclusion and Federalism in Lalitpur, Nepal