PM’s China visit: Was it another Kramabhanga?

The joint press statement issued after Prime Minister Pushpa Kamal Dahal’s China visit contains elements that can drag Nepal into the geopolitical rivalry between China and US, experts have warned. They fear that the statement may even give rise to questions over Nepal’s long-standing policy of non-alignment.

It is obvious that Nepal does not want to get caught in the US-China rivalry. But Clause 6 of the statement reads, “Recognizing that the Government of the People’s Republic of China is the sole legal Government representing the whole of China, and Taiwan is an inalienable part of China’s territory, the Nepali side is against ‘Taiwan independence’.”

 

Though not explicitly mentioned in the document, parts of GCI and GSI have been incorporated in the press statement.  In the past, Nepal used to reaffirm its commitment to one-China policy without further elaboration. The document explicitly states that Nepali side is against Taiwanese independence. The document further says that Nepali Nepali side reiterated its firm commitment to the one-China principle.

Geopolitical analyst Vijay Kanta Karna argues that it is wrong to mention “principle” instead of “policy” in the joint statement. “How will Nepal apply this principle in other areas?” he questions, describing the use of the word “principle” instead of “policy” in the document as ‘very concerning and disturbing’.

According to Karna, Nepal has been consistently expressing commitment to “one-China policy” in the official document without much talk about Taiwan. Now, however, Nepal itself has gotten involved in this issue, he observes, “Nepal has become a part of international geopolitics between America and China unnecessarily, This is an unwarranted statement.”

This policy is different from the policy that the erstwhile Sher Bahadur Deuba government had adopted. When US House Speaker Nancy Pelosi’s 2022 visit to Taiwan caused tensions, Nepal just said it was closely following the developments and reiterated its commitment to one-China policy, despite pressure from the Chinese side to side with it on the issue of Taiwan. The statement shows Nepal is trying to align with China’s national security, Karna says.

Foreign policy expert Gopal Khanal agrees that there was no need for Nepal to mention Taiwan in the joint statement because our one-China policy covers all issues. As there was no progress on BRI, Dahal agreed to such a language to appease the Chinese, Khanal says: Such acts may put us in a difficult situation.

On Global Security Initiatives (GSI) and Global Civilizational Initiative (GCI), China expected Nepal to support and welcome the initiatives. According to the officials, this was mentioned in the first draft of the statement, only to be omitted after the Nepali side did not agree. Nepal has welcomed the Global Development Initiative (GDI) with two projects under it already implemented in the country.

“China supports Nepal’s independent choice of social system and development path that suits its national conditions,” the joint statement reads further, in a marked departure from the past. 

PM Dahal’s China visit has failed to make remarkable progress on development cooperation and it was heavily focused on security issues. Per the statement, the two sides agreed to expedite the ratification of the China-Nepal Treaty on Mutual Legal Assistance in Criminal Matters, though the matter is sub-judice in Nepal’s Supreme Court.

The reasons behind the inclusion of terms like ‘social system’ and ‘development path’ in the joint statement aren’t clear, either. According to analyst Karna, ‘social system’ is a part of GCI and Nepal’s development path has already been determined in Nepal’s Constitution and there are no questions over it in Nepal. Experts fear that such carelessness on the part of the PM may affect Nepal’s principled position of not engaging in great power confrontations and sticking to the policy of non-alignment.