Deuba’s successor plan

Aa per the party’s statute, Nepali Congress President Sher Bahadur Deuba cannot run for a third consecutive term. Given his age and the intra-party dynamics, he is unlikely to take initiatives to amend the statute to remove the term limits. 

In this scenario, the stage is set for a new generation of leaders to take the reins of the party. The list of potential contenders is long and includes figures like Gagan Thapa, Shekhar Koirala, Prakash Man Singh, Bimalendra Nidhi and Purna Bahadur Khadka. But one thing is clear: As Deuba wields a majority within the party’s Central Working Committee, Parliamentary Party and Mahasamiti, securing his vote of confidence is crucial for the Congress presidential hopefuls.

Currently, all eyes are on incumbent General Secretary Gagan Thapa and the Koirala family scion Shekhar Koirala. Gagan Thapa and Shekhar Koirala were in the same camp during the 14th General Convention, but as they aspire for the top job, the distance between them is widening. 

Many insiders believe that Koirala is strategically getting closer to Deuba to clinch the party presidency. Their budding bonhomie was apparent when Koriala praised Deuba’s leadership during a TV interview.

Thapa, on the other hand, has traversed a winding path within the party. His journey, marked by alliances and shifts, has led him to his current position as the party’s general secretary. Yet, questions abound regarding his loyalty and next move.

In the 13th General Convention, where Thapa was defeated in the general secretary race, his vote helped Deuba secure the presidency. In return, Deuba appointed Thapa as the Health and Population Minister under the Cabinet of CPN (Maoist Center) Chair Puspa Kamal Dahal.

However, after the first federal election in 2017, Thapa shifted his position. Following the election, Deuba and former Deputy PM Prakashman Singh were seen as contenders for the position of parliamentary party leader. However, Thapa’s group supported Singh against Deuba’s candidate, and Singh lost in the parliamentary party’s election.

In the 14th General Convention, Thapa's ambitions became more prominent, and he aligned with the Koirala camp against Singh and Sitaula. In the Parliamentary Party election of 2023, Thapa stood against Deuba, sidelining Koirala. Before the parliamentary party's candidate selection, Shekhar's group and Thapa assured that in the upcoming leadership opportunity, they would propose Koirala for the top post. However, it now appears that Thapa is bypassing Koirala in various aspects. Still, leaders from the Shekhar-Gagan camp are trying to resolve their disputes. They propose Koirala as the party president and Thapa as the second-in-command. 

However, members from the Thapa camp say that leadership is not bestowed as a gift; it is a demand of the times, and Thapa will vie for the presidency in the 15th General Convention.

Deuba and Koirala clan

Deuba, a trustee of BP Koirala, the founding leader of Nepali Congress, and a supporter of Krishna Prasad Bhattarai, was defeated in the leadership race against Girija Prasad Koirala and Sushil Koirala. After Sushil's passing, he competed against Ramchandra Poudel and Shekhar Koirala and secured the Congress presidency on both occasions.

Shashank Koirala, who emerged as a prominent figure during the 13th General Convention, had initially supported Deuba's candidacy and continued to do so during the 14th General Convention. However, the 14th General Convention created an environment where the members of the Koirala clan—Shekhar, Shashank and Sujata— found themselves in separate camps, which ultimately benefited Deuba. Shashank now appears to be closer to Deuba, and there is a growing thaw between Deuba and Shekhar. Shashank has indicated that he is preparing to contest the 15th General Convention for the presidency, regardless of support from Shekhar or not. Shashank believes that he has a better understanding of the Congress and the challenges it faces. 

Prakash Rasaili, a leader from the Shekhar-Gagan faction, believes that despite Shashank's skills as a politician, Deuba is unlikely to hand over the party leadership to the Koirala clan. Deuba's strategy, he says, is to create divisions in the opposition camp to ensure an easy victory for his own candidate. Relations between Shashank and Thapa were not cordial during the 14th Convention, as Shashank felt he was bypassed. A leader close to Shashank says that they are cautious about Thapa potentially betraying them at any time.

Shashank Koirala, Prakash Man Singh and Bimalendra Nidhi engaged in intense discussions during the 14th General Convention of the party. With the rising prominence of BP Koirala's and Mahendranarayan Nidhi's sons in political cooperation, the NC was witnessing the emergence of a new wave.

During discussions led by the trio, they reached an agreement that one among them would run for the position of Party presidency, while the other two would provide their support. However, as the registration for candidacy approached in the first phase of the Convention, both Singh and Nidhi registered their candidacies, while Shashank supported Deuba.

During the first phase of the convention, no candidate could garner the required 51 percent of votes to secure victory. So a second round of voting took place. In the first phase, Singh received the third-highest number of votes and Nidhi secured the fourth-highest. Despite their aspirations of becoming the party president, Singh and Nidhi supported Deuba.

During this time, Deuba faced allegations of withdrawing support from Singh after making promises.

Will Khadka become Deuba's successor?

There is no certainty as to who will become the NC president, but there are some early indications. Top leaders from Deuba's camp, such as Purna Bahadur Khadka and Gopal Man Shrestha, are natural candidates for the party presidency. However, Shrestha's influence within the party is limited.

Regarding the allegations of Bal Krishna Khand's involvement in the fake Bhutanese refugee scandal, there is speculation among the opposition about Deuba's choice for his successor. This controversy has brought Khadka forward as a potential candidate from the Deuba faction. 

Badri Sigdel, the former president of Nepal Press Union, says Khadka’s experiences, including key roles during the party's previous split, as well as positions like party general secretary, vice-president, and current Deputy Prime Minister, highlight his seniority within the party. 

Deuba has not explicitly assured support to Khadka so far. This has led to a debate on Arzoo Deuba's position within the party. Leaders suggest that she is unlikely to run for party presidency but may contest for a vital office bearer position.

Congress leader Rasaili believes that despite Deuba's support, the group in which Arzoo becomes a candidate is destined for defeat. "There is no unity even within the Deuba group. Today, Deuba, who is the president and the leader of the parliamentary party, and who is likely to become the prime minister in the near future, is facing opposition from leaders within his own group. If he is not the party president tomorrow, the situation will be different. Everyone should pursue their own politics; leaders can't just follow Deuba's lead."

Sigdel holds a different opinion. He says: "Sher Bahadur Deuba, who has led the party for two terms, fought against the Koiralas in the past and has been prime minister five times, has a strong grip on the party. Without Deuba's support, no one can win the presidency, given the strong organization he has built. Even a small fraction of support from Deuba's camp can make a significant difference."

A central committee member close to Deuba says that since the Congress is currently undergoing internal reformation, there is no clear picture of who will be the candidates for the next general convention. Regarding Khadka’s chance of getting Deuba’s nod, he says: "The process of breaking up and rebuilding factions is still ongoing, so we have not reached a point where Khadka can be definitively called Deuba's successor."