Future of Wagner Group after Prigozhin passing

Against the backdrop of the current global security landscape, there is an undeniable and profound transformation taking place, both intricate and far-reaching, necessitating a thorough and comprehensive examination. Amidst this complex web of challenges, it is crucial not only to understand the Wagner phenomenon within the confines of policymaking but also to extend this understanding to a broader societal context. One of the fundamental questions that arises is whether security forces should be viewed as a public good or a private good. In other words, should they be taken as entities exclusively under the control and responsibility of governments and public institutions, or can they be mobilized by private entities, at any time, and in any location? This question delves into the heart of how security is conceptualized and provided in our contemporary world, and it challenges traditional notions of state monopoly on the use of force. It requires a nuanced understanding of the changing dynamics of security provision and the implications this has for society as a whole.

A growing influence

The Wagner Group still poses a significant global security risk due to its involvement in conflicts and destabilization efforts even though the mastermind Yevgeny Prigozhin is assumed dead, with its mercenary activities often on state actors' behalf potentially exacerbating tensions. Prigozhin, a Russian business tycoon, was referred to as the founder of the Wagner Group in 2014 and is slowly claiming the title of "father of modern mercenary forces", which now probably needs no introduction after its attempted mutiny against the Russian establishment in July. Prigozhin, often known as "Putin's chef" for providing catering services to the Kremlin, holds a central role in the group's formation and operations. Under Prigozhin, the Russian-registered Private Military Company (PMC) has fought in Ukraine and won Bakhmut for Russia, and now it is in headlines for its role in Africa as Wagner is now showing its strength to secure victory for Niger's dictator Gen Abdourahamane Tchiani, who declared himself the head of a transitional government on July 28, less than 10 days after Niger's elected president Muhammad Bazoom was captured by the military.

Wagner, who is said to have ties with Russian military intelligence, has recently ignited the debate on future warfare in the ongoing Niger coup after its operations spanned conflicts in Syria, Ukraine, and parts of Africa. Wagner’s intelligence unit has managed to win over the intelligence agencies of several western nations, like France, which had deployed around 1500 troops in Niger, and the US, which has over a thousand troops across two bases. Italy kept around 300 troops, and the European Union had at least a hundred troops, and yet together these troops have somehow failed to check extremism and terrorism attacks in Niger.

Mercenaries in future wars 

Throughout history, the use of mercenaries has been a recurring strategy employed by various civilizations to augment their military prowess. From Ancient Egypt to the modern era, mercenaries have played diverse roles in conflicts and expansion. This article delves into the historical roots of employing mercenaries, explores their utilization by European colonial powers, and highlights the contemporary surge in the use of Private Military Companies (PMCs) in a global context. Wagner has given rise to the rise of future mercenaries with its success in Central African Republic (CAR) where in the heart of capital city Bangui, a statue is placed that stands as a display of support to the CAR and also since Wagner is seen jointly with local security agents for providing security to President Faustin-Archange Touadéra, at least the defensive system of few countries can be seen to be under the mercenary already.

Private militaries covert combat

Like all major warfare initiatives, the US paved the way toward the rise of modern mercenary warfare, where it had to turn to PMCs for its need to undertake its military operations in Afghanistan, Iraq, and elsewhere to avoid the domestic backlash. This tactic of using contractors was thoroughly studied by the Kremlin, and as a result, the Russian version of the US’ most successful PMC, Blackwater, was created under the name Wagner. Although Blackwater later had to change its name to Academi after it was forced out of Iraq after a shooting incident in which 17 civilians died, Wagner, however, enjoys people’s full support wherever it goes to fight, and has always had the upper hand.

As global powers are making Africa a battlefield with the West and China employing methods to take the resources, the ground is also going on the verge of becoming a shadow battleground. This year, the Central African Republic saw the killing of several Chinese workers. China is now claiming that in the whole of Africa, their workers are often kidnapped for which they are increasing their security by deploying PMCs like DeWe Security Service, Huaxin Zhong An Security Group and China Security Technology Group. It is to be noted here that the Chinese government has direct or indirect control over the companies full of security agents with a military background, thanks to a compulsory military service in China. All this is set to make Africa a battleground.

Bhandari is assistant professor at the Department of Conflict, Peace and Development Studies, Tribhuvan University

Das is executive editor at IADN , India’s leading portal on Aerospace and Defense