The Medical Education Commission (MEC), the national regulatory body for medical education, has estimated that Nepal will require more than 250,000 medical personnel by the fiscal year 2030/31. The projection is based on the findings of a study conducted in the fiscal year 2020/21. The commission said that 358,938 personnel, including female community health volunteers (FCHVs) and office assistants in both the government and private health institutions, will be needed across the country by 2030/31, adding that the country will require 257,091 doctors and health workers by that time. “The number of required personnel are projected on the basis of retirement and migration of health practitioners along with the construction of health institutions in the country,” said Dr Shree Krishna Giri, vice-chair of the commission.

The commission’s projections come at a time when an increasing number of medical doctors and nurses are leaving the country.

While there was a need for 234,361 medical personnel in the country’s health institutions in the fiscal year 2020/2021, only 178,309 were found working at those institutions during the period. The World Health Organization’s World Health Report 2006 estimates that at least 2.5 medical staff (physicians, nurses and midwives) are needed per 1,000 people to provide adequate coverage with primary care interventions. The commission has projected that Nepal’s health facilities will require 16,784 MBBS doctors, 15,435 specialist consultants (MDs) and 411 nursing professionals (Master’s completed) by 2031. Additionally, 3,359 nursing assistants (Bachelor level), 88,024 nursing and obstetrics assistants (Certificate level), 2,083 traditional and alternative medicine professionals (Bachelor’s and Master’s Degrees), 2,118 traditional and assistant physicians technical (Certificate level) will be needed to ensure adequate healthcare coverage. According to the commission, 2,688 personnel related to other health professions (Master’s Degree), 23,150 (Bachelor’s Degree) in other health-related auxiliary professions and 104,039 personnel (Certificate level) in other auxiliary professions will have to be produced by then. The commission stated that 57,043 FCHVs and office assistants, 44, 800 cleaning staff and drivers will be required by then. The medical education regulatory body stated that 7,659 medical human resources with Bachelor’s degree, 1,684 with Master’s degree and 109 with Post-master’s Degree will be produced this year. It informed that 12,102 health workers will be produced in 11 medium and basic level subjects, including nursing, general medicine, dental science, ayurvedic health science, physiotherapy and pharmacy.