NSO forecasts lower GDP growth of provinces for this year

A sharp slowdown in economic activities, slackened domestic demand and tighter monetary policy have taken a toll on the economy of all seven provinces of the country. The National Statistics Office (NSO) has forecasted lower economic growth for all the provinces for the current fiscal year. According to NSO, Gandaki Province will have the highest economic growth among the seven provinces in the current fiscal year. Making public the Province-wise Gross Domestic Product (GDP) Estimates on Tuesday, the NSO said that Gandaki's GDP is expected to grow by 3.3 percent in FY 2022/23. The GDP growth of Gandaki in the current fiscal has shrunk by almost 50 percent compared to 6.4 percent in the last fiscal year. The GDP of the Bagmati Province, where the country's federal capital and financial hub Kathmandu is located, is expected to grow at the slowest rate of 1.4 percent.

With the growth of wholesale and retail trade becoming negative, the province's economic outlook is bleak. The share of wholesale and retail trade in Bagmati province's GDP is 23.6 percent.

NSO has estimated the growth rate of Koshi Province to be 2 percent, Madhesh Province 1.7 percent, Lumbini Province 2.1 percent, Karnali Province 1.9 percent, and Sudurpaschim Province 1.8 percent in the current fiscal year While the NSO has forecasted the lowest GDP growth for Bagmati Province, it still accounts for the lion's share of the country's total GDP, contributing 36.8 percent. The province’s GDP is expected to reach Rs 1,981 billion in FY 2022/23, up from Rs 1,819 billion in 2021/22. The output of Gandaki province is expected to reach Rs 482 billion. The province’s contribution to the national GDP is expected to remain at 9 percent. The agriculture sector is the highest contributor to Gandaki’s economy, accounting for 25.9 percent of the province's GDP. According to NSO, the economic output of Karnali in the current fiscal year is estimated to reach Rs 221 billion. The share of Karnali in the total GDP is estimated to remain at 4.1 percent. The agriculture sector is a key contributor making up 30.8 percent of its GDP. NSO has estimated that Koshi Province's GDP will reach Rs 849 billion in FY 2022/23, up from Rs 780 billion in FY 2021/22. The contribution of Koshi Province to the national GDP is expected to be 15.8 percent. Agriculture accounts for 33.2 percent of the GDP of the province. The GDP of Lumbini Province is expected to reach Rs 762 billion in the current fiscal year from Rs 697 billion in the last fiscal year. The province contributes 14.2 percent to the national GDP. The agriculture sector contributes 29.8 percent to the provincial GDP. The GDP of Sudurpashchim Province is estimated at Rs 376 billion in the current fiscal year, up from Rs 345 billion in the last fiscal year. The contribution of the province to the national GDP has been estimated to remain at 7 percent. The Madhesh Province's GDP is expected to reach Rs 707 billion in FY 2022/23 from Rs 650 billion in FY 2021/22. The share of Madhesh in the national GDP is 13.1 percent in the current fiscal year. With a share of 35.2 percent, the agriculture sector is the highest contributor to the province's GDP.