Rise in imports makes NRB cautious

After the government eased import restrictions, the country's imports increased for the second straight month. Nepal imported goods worth Rs 143.123 billion in Chaitra (mid-March to mid-April), the highest on a month-to-month basis, in the current fiscal year. The Nepal Rastra Bank (NRB), which resorted to strict import-cutting measures a year ago after foreign exchange reserves depleted drastically, is said to be watching the rise in imports closely as this growth can again derail the external sector of the economy. The country had imported goods worth Rs 139.22 billion in Falgun (mid-February to mid-March), an increase of 10 percent compared to Magh (mid-January to mid-February). Nepal had imported goods worth Rs 142.31 billion in Bhadra (mid-August-mid-September), the second highest on a month-to-month basis in FY 2022/23. However, the country's total imports in the first nine months of the current fiscal year are lower than the last fiscal year. According to the Department of Customs, Nepal imported goods worth Rs 1,201.508 billion in the current fiscal year compared to Rs 1,466.662 billion during the same period of the last fiscal year. The imports during the first nine months of this fiscal have declined by 18.08 percent.

With the government imposing restrictions on luxury items and NRB introducing cash margin provisions on Letters of Credit issuance, the imports have declined till mid-February.

The country's Balance of Payment (BoP) has remained positive by Rs 148.11 billion during the first eight months of the current fiscal year while foreign exchange reserves also increased by 15.2 percent to Rs1401.21 billion till mid-March, according to NRB data. Though these restrictive measures contributed to reducing imports and improving the country's external sector, they also resulted in a huge decline in government revenues which are heavily reliant on imports. The slowdown in revenue collection forced the government to lift import restrictions on the imports of vehicles, alcohol, and expensive mobile phones in mid-December, 2022. The central bank also removed the provision of cash margin in January this year. Along with the surge in imports, the amount of money going out of the country for education abroad has also increased significantly. A total of Rs 54.7 billion went out of the country in the first eight months of the current fiscal year, an increment of 80 percent. Central bank officials say they are observing the situation cautiously. "If the imports continue to surge, it would put pressure on the external sector," said Dr. Prakash Kumar Shrestha, Executive director of NRB. According to him, the source of foreign exchange income is not strong at the moment. "Currently, Nepal is receiving monthly remittances of around Rs 100 billion which is not enough to cover the imports." Monthly Import Bill

Chaitra                               Rs 143.123 billion Falgun                                Rs 139.22 billion Magh                                  Rs 126.499 billion Poush                                 Rs 127.92 billion Mangsir                           Rs 132.055 billion Kartik                                 Rs 131.693 billion Ashoj                                  Rs 127.399 billion Bhadra                               Rs 142.313 billion Shrawan                        Rs 131.286 billion