India imposed a ban on wheat exports in May last year after unseasonably hot weather hit the harvest in the country. In March 2022, a heatwave curtailed India's wheat production to 100m tons against local consumption of 103.6m tons.
In December last year, the southern neighbor allowed the export of wheat to Nepal by setting the quota at 50,000 till March end. But flour mills were asking the government to make a request for at least 200,000 tons of flour. As Nepal does not produce enough wheat, the country has to import from India, the second-largest producer of wheat in the world. After Russia's invasion of Ukraine affected wheat production and supply from the two warring countries badly, the big producers of wheat started to curtail exports considering food security in their own nations. The decline in wheat production due to heat waves gave another reason for India to ban wheat exports. India faced another heatwave in northern and central India in February this year. The heatwave at a time the crop is ripening is threatening to damage grains and dent the country's wheat production for the second straight year, Reuters reported in early March this year. The maximum temperature in some wheat-growing areas jumped above 39 degrees Celsius for a few days in February, nearly 10 degrees Celsius above normal, according to weather department data. In the middle of February this year, India’s Ministry of Agriculture and Farmers Welfare said that wheat production is estimated to reach 112.18m tons during 2022/23, which is 4.12 percent higher than 107.74m tons recorded during 2021/22. Although wheat production in India is forecast to increase in the 2023/24 marketing year, the Indian government is unlikely to relax its export ban on wheat and wheat products, at least through the peak harvest/marketing period, according to a Global Agricultural Information Network report from the Foreign Agricultural Service of the US Department of Agriculture (USDA). “Policymakers are fretting over reports predicting a strengthening of the El Niño later in 2023, potentially impacting Indian agricultural production and food supplies,” the USDA said. “In the run-up to India’s state and national elections and to combat food inflation, the government will ensure the availability of sufficient wheat supplies." The limited export quota set for Nepal has not been sufficient to keep up with the demand which resulted in price rises for everything that is produced with wheat flour. Manufacturers have either increased the price or have kept prices of products unchanged while packaging with less quantity.
