Four crises point to an increasingly volatile world

Four major international crises are pointing at an increasingly volatile world.  First, Sino-US competition is centered on the growth of Chinese domination versus retention of American supremacy. However, this division does not seem much relevant to broader geo-economic interests of China and the US as bilateral trade continues.  As a result of globalization, interdependency has reduced the world to the size of a small village, and any sort of supply chain disruption poses a greater threat to the world economy; which therefore requires a higher level of resilience in the supply chain. 

For instance, the Black Sea Grain Corridor is still operating despite Russia's ongoing invasion of Ukraine. Millions of Africans in fragile states would face a food catastrophe if it were blocked. The need for a diversified supply chain system has arisen as a result of recent global events, such as the Covid-19 pandemic, the Russian invasion of Ukraine, and potential economic slump in coming days, with the shutdown of the Silicon Valley Bank and the Credit Suisse crisis ringing alarm bells. In absolute Western understanding, the pandemic made us rethink about moving the world's industrial center from China to another location so that the rest of the world won’t suffer. 

However, shifting the center of production or diversifying the supply chain has a geopolitical significance. The idea was to relocate the base to India during the Covid-19 pandemic, which worked out nicely in terms of narrating the alleged Chinese involvement in the Covid-19 virus eruption that caused significant damage to the world economy. In the larger picture, China is rising as the greatest fear factor in the US. From think tanks’ documents to the Biden Administration’s National Security Strategy Paper (released on October 22) outrightly describes, China has both the intent and the power to reshape the international order. That fear factor becomes deadly when Sino-Russian eternal friendship goes on without disturbance. However, China and Russia both have divergent objectives in global politics yet converged in countering the US with Russia’s dire need of investment in the Siberian region’s gas plants development and Chinese interest in getting Russian energy uninterrupted. Reading from the Chinese body language, it’s clear that China will continue to be Russia’s friend until and unless her economic interests aren’t hurt globally. Second, China is not only concentrated in Russia for alliance building but also focusing on the Middle East. Despite being applauded by the US, the China-brokered Saudi-Iran deal has its own implications for reshaping Middle Eastern politics away from a purely British-American sphere of influence, given that regional powers like Saudi Arabia are increasingly diversifying their relationships away from the US security umbrella to other dominant powers in Asia—Saudi is handling herself wonderfully.  In an effort to draw in another emerging international power, Riyadh is purchasing American weapons and ammunition and selling her fossil fuel to China—complete strategies to create a win-win situation for them. Saudi Arabia, with its massive profits earned from the ‘production and price control strategy’ of oil during the Russian invasion of Ukraine, knows that this is not sustainable. So, diversifying economic activities from oil to non-oil sectors is necessary and here comes the Saudi-Vision 2030—a complete remake of Saudi in the areas from Tourism to Telecommunications. For this, getting an abundant amount of Chinese investment and tourists is a boon for the Saudis. Riyadh’s growing alignment with Russia-China and the operation of OPEC+ with Russia—the price and production control strategy of oil—is irritating Americans.  When the US was preparing for the midterm election in November 2022, OPEC + countries decided to cut oil production to 2m barrels per day. This was designed completely under Russian interest to put the Biden administration in trouble.  A number of think tanks and politicians in the US have accused Saudi Arabia of supporting fundamentalist groups throughout the Middle East and of having a poor record on human rights and even requested the US government to cut ties with that country. This has frustrated Saudi Arabia, which has opened doors for China.  Before Saudi-Iran resetting of ties, China-Saudi ties were bolstered to pave the road for future partnership. Meanwhile, Saudi Arabia and Iran's support for opposing forces in the Yemen War and the former’s improvement of relations with Israel cast doubt on Israeli efforts to discredit Iran's nuclear program as a serious threat to Israel’s internal security and stability, particularly by Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu. With hidden inside-outside players, the Middle Eastern political landscape is deeply muddled by the confluence of oil, the petrodollar, and religion. Drawing from the lesson of Western sweat and blood history in managing Middle East politics, China needs to work hard. Third, the interests of Indo-Pacific Strategy (IPS) and North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) are progressively converging in Asia; both security theaters are primarily focused on containing Chinese supremacy. IPS primarily carried forward by the United States’ and  QUAD and NATO under the Euro-Atlantic Security vision may be centered on the ‘believed’ flash points of Asia, namely Taiwan Strait, Iran, South China Sea, Nepal and the Korean Peninsula. One of the crucial flash points that circle around India and China is Nepal, where Sino-US rivalry has increased to a greater extent. The delicate geopolitical position of Nepal might provide a safe haven for international political adventurism, but this dark cloud could be troublesome for Nepal itself to manage, given its economic and political fragility. Interestingly, a number of localizing IPS ideas are taking shape amid all this. While Japan's recent declaration to alter its wartime security policy and get ready for new challenges is exciting in itself. This announcement raises concerns for the stability of Asia. In addition, India has adopted a rather unique strategy in the current world politics. Being a Middle Power, it has developed a tendency to fit in any circumstance. Example includes India’s ever-growing relations with Russia and its rival, the US, despite the Russian invasion of Ukraine. India got waived in the US Countering American Adversary Through Sanction Act (CAATSA) despite its continuing trade relations with Russia. This is because India can be a very important partner for the US in South Asia in the context of increasing Sino-US rivalry. Fourth, the Russian invasion of Ukraine has brought up an urgent need for a new security architecture in Europe, the lesson learning of energy dependence on a single supply, the reaffirmation of energy as a strategic commodity (this is also completely relevant in Nepal’s hydro sector as partners in Nepal are understanding it as simple commodity goods despite India’s repeated stance that this is a strategic matter) and growing unified voice of the global south for multilateralism. The global economic recession ignited by the Covid-19 pandemic added heavily by the Russian invasion of Ukraine resulted in higher inflations. This forced central banks to raise interest rates, which took a toll on economic growth. Above all, economic pundits rely on the fact that relaxation of Covid-19 restrictions and the rise of demand in the Chinese economy could keep the global economy on track. At last, all these four crises are the product of the friction between the West versus Sino-Russia.