Nepal at a geostrategic crossroads

After the formation of a government under the leadership of CPN (Maoist Center) Chair Pushpa Kamal Dahal, various sectors were keen to know what shape Nepal’s foreign policy will take. When a new government is formed, there is always an opportunity to address the many political objectives, among which foreign policy is one. Domestic factors, other governments' actions or policies, or aspirations to achieve particular geopolitical designs all have an impact on how foreign policy is developed. Leopold Von Ranke prioritized geography and external challenges when determining foreign policy, but succeeding writers emphasized more on domestic issues. Foreign policy is frequently defined as being consistent in nature and not being affected by changes in the administration in charge of establishing it. However, in the context of Nepal, we can observe how many regimes have adopted changes in foreign policy in various ways. The Rana oligarchy, according to Professor Bhim Nath Baral, embraced an isolationist strategy. To put it another way, both the Rana oligarchy and the Panchayat Monarch were driven to advance a foreign policy that was centered on their own regimes. Political parties were motivated by party-centric foreign policy after the restoration of multiparty democracy in 1990, although it has been observed that in the democratic republican political system, foreign policy is driven by the motives of the political leadership at large. The propensity to conduct foreign policy within the framework of Nepali politics has failed in general to provide the right orientation in order to achieve the country's aspirations and fundamental mission.

Shifting a global power

Soft power proponent Joseph S Nye has stated: "Power is changing, and there are two types of changes. One is a change in the balance of power among the states, which can be emphasized by stating the message simply—that it is moving from the West to the East. The second is power diffusion, in which all states, whether in the West or the East, are losing power to non-state actors. After the collapse of the USSR in 1991, the US emerged as the only superpower, and it still sees itself in that position today.  Professor Graham Allison discussed the growth of China and popularized the phrase "Thucydides Trap," which refers to the idea that a rising power's attempt to usurp an existing one will always result in conflict.  In the current global order, we have observed a remarkable rise of the political and non-state players. The US and its allies are now deeply concerned about China's remarkable rise, and they are using a variety of strategies to try and slow it down. When China was only the US’ 24th-largest trading partner shortly after the declaration of its opening in 1978, total merchandise commerce between the two countries was only about $4 billion. However, by 2017, the US-China trade increased to $636 billion. The Industrial and Commercial Bank of China has the largest financial assets in the world ($4.2 trillion), making it a leader in digital innovation, e-commerce, and technology. China is engaging with various regions of the world through the BRI, GDI, GSI, and many more platforms and concepts. Similar to China, India is a major player in South Asia and another developing economic force in Asia. Due to its location between China and India, Nepal has drawn the interest of powerful nations. China and India were the first two countries to extend congratulations to Nepal following the election of Dahal as Prime Minister. A team of Chinese experts arrived in Nepal after Dahal’s election to study the Kathmandu-Kerung railway in depth and to reopen important ports shut for an extended period of time. A series of important visits have been taken from the UK, the UK and India amid these moves from China. This reflects global concerns about the new government’s take on the goals and preferences of major powers in light of geostrategic conflicts. Enhancing soft power The three main factors that influence a nation's soft power, in Nye's words, are its culture, political ideas, and foreign policies. However, economic power is an essential requirement for the majority of soft power. For two reasons: first, people aspire to be like those in prosperous countries rather than those in poorer ones, hence the bulk of soft power is based on and made possible by economic wealth. As a result, at this point, our main focus must be on using our resources to increase national wealth. The United States has Hollywood, famous brands and businesses, and a mission to ‘evangelize’ democracy; the European Union has a romantic and touristic allure, a shaky sense of supranational unity, and a comprehensive foreign assistance program; and other soft powers exhibit peculiar attributes in an international order. China is now heavily investing in soft power projects. Now, China has become the third destination for overseas students. According to the Liz Economy, China has a three-pronged approach. The first step is to develop the soft power of China, followed by more traditional concepts of culture, such as Confucianism, art, music, and literature. The creation of the means by which China can project its soft power is the third component of the plan. The Confucius Institutes are a means of disseminating public diplomacy, much like the Alliance Française, the British Council, and many US projects. People in Africa have favorable perceptions of China as a result of its development of commerce and investment on the continent and the proliferation of infrastructure projects spearheaded by China. Allow me to highlight some of the imperatives that must be brought into effect in engrossing national wealth.  We have abundant water resources, natural resources, mines and cultural diversity. We have been talking about our water resources for ages but we are not positioning the right use of it.  Beyond hydropower generation, we can harness our water resources and capitalize them into different forms. Water from the Himalayas can be exported abroad for drinking and ritualistic values. How can we motivate others to make our water occupancy in different forms is up to us. There are several untapped religious tourism destinations. Places like Khaptad, Ramaroshan, Badimalika, and so on across Nepal can be transformed into religious hubs as well as tourist destinations. We can introduce Vedic University and research centers in Khaptad, Badimalika and other such places. Tourism University can be established in Ramaroshan and Rara. We can identify other potential agricultural areas and develop them into large-scale production universities and research centers. We do not have a state-owned Gurukul in this sacred country. By establishing Gurukul Universities, we can attract people from different countries. These are some of the untapped ideas through which the country can generate considerable national wealth, which can be used for soft power projection. Path ahead The rise in the economic might of two regional powers, India and China, economic allies on the one hand and geopolitical rivals on the other, has changed the nature of regional politics. This puzzling relationship between them has created space for ambiguity in the regional order, making South Asia's geopolitics highly unstable from a strategic standpoint. To contain China and its geo-economic strategy, including BRI, GSI, and GDI, the US and its allies have launched a number of economic and geostrategic initiatives, including B3W, IPS, and AUKUS. An intense struggle between these powerful nations, which is "strategy-loaded," has reshaped the geopolitical landscape. This is unlike the Cold War era, when two blocs competed for power and attempted to contain one another. Nepal must be very careful in choosing the preferences and choices based on its national priorities, comparative advantage, rather than reiterating the old rhymes of non-alignment. Multiple actors, emerging from the dawn of the 21st century in the current international political order, have their own priorities and preferences. Foreign policy must be developed on the basis of national consensus in which all political parties, specialists and stakeholders reach an understanding that prioritizes national interest under the guiding matra of “Comparative Advantage”. The author is PhD Scholar at CCNU, International Relations, China