The 40th plenary of the 76th Session of the United Nations General Assembly (UNGA) unanimously adopted a resolution endorsing the graduation of Nepal from the LDC category with the preparatory period of five years, according to a statement issued by the Permanent Mission of Nepal to the United Nations in New York.
The decision to graduate from Nepal was taken based on Nepal’s progress in two out of three areas, namely the human asset index and the economic vulnerability index. However, the country has long been struggling to meet the criteria related to per capita income, the third component. According to its committee's estimate, Nepal’s per capita income will reach USD 1,572, down from USD 1,595 estimated while preparing the three-yearly Medium-Term Expenditure Framework (MTEF) in the fiscal year 2020/21. The MTEF had estimated progress in the number of economic sectors for the fiscal years 2021/22, 2022/23, and 2023/24. Likewise, Nepal’s score in the economic vulnerability index is estimated at 23.5 in the next fiscal year, up from an earlier estimate of 23. As per the UN criteria, the threshold for LDC graduation is below 32. “Nepal’s economy is vulnerable due to high dependence on imports, particularly that of agricultural goods imports and climate change,” said an expert. Nepal’s dependence on imports for revenue has been exposed as import restriction measures resulted in a massive slump in the government’s revenue. When it comes to the human asset index, Nepal is set to score 77 from an earlier estimate of 78 under MTEF. In order to graduate from LDC, this score should be above 66. “Covid-19 affected the human development performance on which Nepal has been performing very well in recent years,” the expert said. Nepal’s economy suffered badly from Covid-19, and after recovering from the pandemic, the emergence of a massive balance of payment deficit and a liquidity crunch in the last one and a half years. Now, the country is facing a fiscal deficit with revenue insufficient even to finance the administrative expenditures of the government. The Shrestha-led committee has decreased the estimated resource collection by the government in the next fiscal year 2023-24 by over Rs 300 billion compared to its earlier estimate while preparing the medium-term expenditure framework in fiscal 2020-21. The committee made the downward revision in earlier estimates as the government has been witnessing a sharp decline in revenue collection. The committee has estimated the resource generation of Rs 1688.4 billion for the next fiscal year, which is less than Rs 309.4 billion against the earlier estimate of Rs 1997.8 billion as per the three-year Medium Term Expenditure Framework. The government’s revenue, foreign grants and loans, and internal loans are sources of the government’s resources. Even when the government prepared the MTEF in the fiscal year 2020/21, an ambitious estimate of resource collection was not made citing the impacts of the Covid-19 pandemic on the economy. The committee has estimated the revenue collection to decline by 2.5 percent in the current fiscal year from the growth of 30.5 percent in the last fiscal year. The revenue has not been enough even to cover the recurrent expenditure of the government so far. As of February 25, the government collected revenue of Rs 535.82 billion while recurrent expenditure by the same date stood at Rs 555.57 billion, according to the Financial Comptroller General Office (FGCO). The revenue collection declined by Rs 104 billion by February 25 this fiscal year compared to the same period last fiscal year. Considering these factors, the government has already made a downward revision of revenue collection through the mid-term review of the budget.
