Winter drought raises threats of food security

Nepal has received only 11.6 mm of rain since the onset of winter until mid-January. By this time, the average rainfall should have been between 30.7 and 71.20 mm. The less amount of rainfall means that drought is imminent, and that's exactly what has happened. Data from the Department of Hydrology and Meteorology shows that eight winters have received less than average rainfall since 2000. Experts say that the lack of winter rains increases the risk of food insecurity. Sudarshan Humagain, a weather expert at the Hydrology Analysis Division at the department, said that only the Sudurpashchim and Karnali provinces and western parts of Lumbini have received rainfall this winter. Areas stretching from Gandaki Province to the east didn't receive any drop of rain at all. According to Humagain, the country received below-average rainfall in 2001, 2006, 2008, 2009, 2016, 2017, 2018, and 2021. "We have seen drought in eight years since the turn of the new millennium. This is the first time since 2016 when some areas didn't receive any rainfall at all," Humagain said. "This can add a threat to food security and impact the ecosystem."

Associate Professor at the Central Department of Hydrology and Meteorology at Tribhuvan University, Dr. Binod Pokharel, said winters are getting drier with every passing year. "The global climate model hints at heavy rains in the coming days. Our estimate is that there will be heavy rainfall in the monsoon and lower rainfall in winter," he added.

Pokharel said there was heavy rainfall one year and low rainfall the other before 2000. "That is a regular process. Now the trend of heavy rainfall one year and not a single drop the next year is increasing," he added. According to him, rainfall variability is high, but rainfall volume is decreasing. Heavy rainfall triggers disasters, while the lack of winter rain increases food insecurity and affects the ecosystem and farm productivity. Data from the European Met Satellite shows the country received light rains between October 2020 and February 2021. Nepal received 28mm, 22mm, 17mm, 25mm, and 35mm in October, November, December, January, and February that year. That was below-average rainfall considering rainfall data between 1950 and 2021. A study showed in 2016 that low rains affected farm productivity by 87% in western parts of the country.  9.9% of people facing acute food insecurity A study conducted by Bhavadutta Sapkota of Patan Multiple College showed that famine and the threat of food insecurity are rising at an alarming pace. According to the study, only 42.2% of the population is in a food-secure situation round the year. Although people in urban areas have access to food, the problem is severe in hilly and mountainous regions. About 8.1% of the population is deprived in terms of daily calorie consumption and food security. According to the study, 9.9% are suffering from severe food insecurity. However, the situation in Nepal has improved from severe to moderate as per the World Hunger Index. The government has set a target of reducing the rate of food insecurity from 36% to 24% by 2025. Emphasis on adaptation Tika Bahadur Karki, Chief Senior Scientist of National Agricultural Research Center, Khumaltar, says that climate change is increasing the number of extraordinary events recently. “As the rainfall pattern has changed, adaptation methods should be prioritized to deal with such adverse conditions. We don't have strong research. Considering all these things, adaptation is imperative,” he added. Food production has decreased due to prolonged drought. Although the lack of rainfall doesn’t affect the mustard crop, some crops are completely destroyed. Production of crops like barley, wheat, and rye has come down by almost 50%, said Karki. Generally, 2,200 liters of water are required for one kilogram of wheat, 800 liters for one kilogram of maize, and 3,200 to 3,500 liters for a kilogram of paddy. Crops need a lot of water before flowering, during flowering, and during fruition. Farmers in some areas haven’t been able to plant their crops due to a lack of rainfall, while production has fallen in areas where crops have been planted. Adaptation is needed because the cropping season passes while farmers wait for rains. Lack of rain by mid-February will impact the food system and food production, according to Hari Krishna Uprety, former crop and horticulture director. Lack of snowfall affects mountain areas The lack of snowfall will affect apple production in mountain areas. Apple crops are affected if there isn’t sufficient chilling requirement during the flowering and fruiting season. The production of walnuts and other fruits will also be affected. Similarly, the lack of snowfall will impact the production of grass, which will, in turn, affect livestock production. While adaptation has been practiced in short-term crops, nothing has been done for the long-term so far, according to experts. “We need a long-term weather forecast. But we can only give a forecast of only three two days now,” he added. Barley production near zero According to Narakumar Chuhan, a researcher in food security at the Central Department of Rural Development, Tribhuvan University, the Himalayan region has seen a change in the eating habits of people. He said that when studying the situation in Makalu Rural Municipality of Sankhuwasabha 10 years ago and now, there is a difference in production. According to him, barley cultivation has come down to almost zero. Potatoes were seen as a major crop. However, there has been a decrease in potato production due to lack of snow, insect infestation, and non-fruiting. "Until 10 years ago, people from all over the district used to go to the Makalu region to buy potato seeds. Now they have to eat imported potatoes," said Chuhan. Due to the impacts of climate change, production of culturally important crops like proso millet, buckwheat, and lentils have dropped to zero. Instead of paddy, corn, millet, cardamom have taken 95 percent of the production area. Even cardamom plants have dried up in some places due to lack of rain. As a result, both production and prices of cardamom have decreased. What is happening in the weather system? According to Meteorologist Humagain, the La Nina climate pattern in the Pacific Ocean has reduced the activity of westerly winds which cause rainfall. Weathermen had forecast high temperatures and low rainfall before the winter began. Dr. Pokharel said there is no probability of winter rains yet. He said that it will be a bit cold, and there are chances of light snowfall on eastern hills till Wednesday, he added.