The leaders have not spoken about the contents of such closed-door meetings.
The meeting of the five-party coalition is taking place on December 5 which is likely to hold a preliminary discussion on power-sharing. The Maoist has already started internal deliberations on the issue. The first meeting of top leaders of the party on December 3 provided a conflicting message about the party’s position on power-sharing. The party had said that it intends to keep all options open on government formation. Many have read its position as a play to increase the bargaining chip with the NC. At the same time, party leaders say their first priority is go ahead with the current coalition. Speaking with media persons on December 4, Maoist leader Dev Gurung said: “As the coalition remains intact, our first effort is to continue the current coalition.” He said they have not yet thought of any alternatives. Before the elections, Maoist Chairman Pushpa Kamal Dahal used to be vocal about this claim for the premiership as he had hoped that his party would play a decisive factor which somehow still remains but without around 30 seats in the national parliament, his position has weakened. The situation is different now. The NC and UML could secure majority votes without the Maoist support. But, the government will be a fragile one. Inside NC, Prime Minister Sher Bahadur Deuba has started consulting with his core group. The weakened position of the Maoist party has provided a space for Deuba to claim the PM. Before the election, Deuba was morally obliged to accept Dahal as the prime minister, given the latter’s unconditional support to form a government under his leadership following the Supreme Court order in 2021. The first preference of the NC is to convince the Maoist party to form a coalition government under its leadership. If the Maoist agree to form a government under Deuba’s leadership, it stakes a claim on vital positions. But, state institutions including Nepal Army and external powers could show concerns over power-sharing. In this scenario, the president may go to CPN (Unified Socialist) but the Maoist may not settle merely for the speaker. Some NC leaders are also floating the proposal of forming a government under its leadership sans Maoist, bringing all fringe parties and independent candidates on board. But this is not a feasible option for the party because it will make it difficult to form governments in the provinces because it does not have a single majority in either of the provinces. The CPN-UML, which has emerged as the second largest party, is closely following the ongoing talks among the members of the current coalition. The party leaders are saying that external meddling has increased in the government formation. If the current coalition splits, the new government led by the UML or the Maoist party cannot be ruled out. Despite having a souring relationship between Oli and Dahal, the two parties could come together to form coalition government cajoling fringe parties on board. Inside the UML and the Maoist, there are strong urges that left parties must come together, but the ego of Oli and Dahal is preventing that from happening. Another option being floated in the political circle is the NC-UML coalition government. Through some NC leaders, Oli has conveyed this message to PM Deuba. At the same time, there are opinions inside both parties that as two parties are each other’s key competitors, both should not stay in power making the opposition front weak. Those leaders are of the view that one party should lead the government and another stay in opposition. But, there are strong voices inside both parties that for the stability of the country and to counter the emergence of new forces, the two parties should form a strong government. If two parties come together, it would be comparatively easier to share vital positions.
