The shifting political tide in Madhes

The results of the federal and provincial elections show that the political scenario in Madhes has changed. Voters by and large seem to have developed an apparent distrust against the erstwhile dominant Madhes-centric parties and their candidates. The Madhes-based parties, which had been winning the majority of seats in the province by raising Madhesi agendas, didn’t fare well this time. Instead, the CPN-UML—the third-placed party in the province in the 2017 polls—has emerged as the largest party in Madhes. More tellingly, new faces have been elected in 20 of the 32 House of Representatives seats from Madhes.

Similarly, the Nepali Congress, which won six seats in 2017, has slightly strengthened its presence this time by winning a seat more. The Janata Samajbadi Party (JSP), meanwhile, put on a weak show, winning six seats despite being a Madhes-centric force. It had won 10 seats in the previous elections. Another Madhes-based party, Loktantrik Samajbadi Party (LSP), did even worse by winning just three seats, which is six fewer than last time.

The CPN (Maoist Center) was another big loser, securing just one seat in Madhes. It had won five seats in 2017. The newly formed CPN (Unified Socialist) and Janamat Party won two and one seats respectively, while independent candidates were victorious in three constituencies. Of the three independent candidates, Amresh Kumar Singh was the rebel candidate of the NC in Sarlahi-3. Two other independent candidates—Prabhu Sah (Rautahat-3) and Kiran Sah (Rautahat-2)—won as they were supported by some parties in the ruling coalition. The rise of Janamat Party In the provincial assembly election, the Maoist Center, JSP and LSP won half of the seats that they had won in 2017. Looking at the election results declared so far, the Janamat Party, led by CK Raut, would be key in government formation in Madhes government.. Of the 64 first past the post (FPTP) seats in the assembly, Raut’s party has won seven seats so far and is on track to add a few more. The UML and NC have won 13 seats each, while JSP and LSP have secured nine and seven seats, respectively. The Maoist Center and Unified Socialist have won four seats apiece, while independent candidates have occupied six seats. Since the independent candidates had contested the polls against the official candidates of their parties, there are chances that they might rejoin their parties. “People didn’t show belief in Madhes-based parties who put their agendas on the back burner and forged electoral alliances with the parties that they once opposed. So, the people of Madhes voted for CK Raut’s Janamat Party,” says youth activist Arun Jha. “Janamat Party has won the hearts of people by raising the issues that mattered to them.” Jha believes Janamat Party is the new alternative force in Madhes. The defeat of party boss The central presidents of four parties had contested the election to the House of Representatives from Madhes this time. CK Raut, chairman of Janamat Party, defeated JSP chair Upendra Yadav by a huge margin in Saptari-2. Similarly, LSP leader Mahantha Thakur defeated Tarai Madhesh Loktantrik Party’s chair Brikesh Chandra Lal in Mahottari-3. Unified Socialist chair Madhav Kumar Nepal also won from Rautahat-2. The defeat of senior Madhes-centric leaders signifies a big change, says Dr Surendra Labh, member of the National Planning Commission. “They were defeated because of their own doings. Keeping the people entangled in old issues and failure to bring any basis for socio-economic development is the first reason behind their loss,” he says. “The second reason is that the voters want prosperity and economic development. Since the old leaders were unable to deliver these things, the voters went for new faces.” Women in parliament Two out of three female candidates, who contested the election for the House of Representatives from Madhes Province, were elected this time. Both these candidates—Juli Kumari Mahato (Dhanusha-3) and Jwala Sah (Bara-3)—belong to the UML.  The third woman candidate, Chitra Lekha Yadav was defeated in Siraha-2 by JSP's Raj Kishor Yadav. Similarly, four women have been elected to the Madhes Province Assembly so far. Rani Sharma Tiwari was elected from Mahottari-3 (B), while Surita Sah, a rebel candidate of JSP, was victorious in Mahottari-2 (B). Likewise, Unified Socialist’s Bechi Lungeli and Sharada Thapa won from Sarlahi-1 (B) and Mahottari-1 (A) respectively. All four of these women candidates were elected in 2017 as well. No to politics of caste and identity The election results from Madhes this time also hint at the changing attitude of its voters when it comes to politics of caste and identity. Parties, which used to bank on votes by pandering to minority groups, Dalits and Muslims, were left disappointed. This also suggests the growing number of voters who are socially and politically. The defeat of Upendra Yadav in the region dominated by the Yadav community could be an indication that voters in Madhes want to put casteism behind. “It’s a wake up call for parties that gave up their agendas and focused on casteism,” says Dr Labh. What lies ahead? The Madhes-based politics has its roots in the people’s movement of 1950. Various landlords in the Tarai belt including in Mahottari, Saptari and Morang had supported the movement against the autocratic Rana regime. Gajendra Narayan Singh, Kusheshwar Pathak and Mahindra Raya were some of the Madhesi leaders that participated in the 1950 movement. Madhesi people and leaders also fought actively against the Panchayat regime. Leaders like Ramraja Prasad Singh, Dr Laxmi Narayan Jha, Suryanath Raya Yadav, Saketchandra Mishra and Dilip Chaudhary were victims of enforced disappearance by the state. Though Ramraja Prasad Singh managed to free himself, Durgananda Jha became the first martyr of Madhes origin during the Panchayat regime. Madhes and its people had a political voice in a real sense after the Madhes movement of 2007. The erstwhile Madhesi Janadhikar Forum, led by Yadav, was at the forefront of this movement. The party went on to win 52 seats in the 2008 Constituent Assembly (CA) elections. But soon it split into different factions, and as a result, the position of Madhes in the mainstream politics was weakened. In the 2013 CA elections, Madhes-based parties won only 12 out of 119 seats. Although the Madhes-centric parties did form the government in Madhes Province after the 2017 elections, they left much to be desired for when it came to development, stability and good governance.   Observers say voters have punished the Madhes-based parties for their complacency, for condoning corruption and irregularities. It is an outcome of disrespecting people’s will. If the parties do not learn their lesson, they could be  further weakened in the  next election, observers say. Box Madhes Province Assembly (FPTP seats) CPN-UML: 15 Nepali Congress: 13 JSP: 9 LSP: 7 Janamat: 6 Independents: 6 Maoist Center: 4 CPN (US): 4