The geopolitical factor in the government formation

Indian Ambassador to Nepal Naveen Srivastava was the first diplomat to meet top  leaders  after Nepal’s  Nov 20 elections. This came at a time when the preliminary parleys are ongoing among the major parties to hash out the modality of the post-election power-sharing deal. The Indian envoy wanted to read the minds of Sher Bahadur Deuba, Pushpa Kamal Dahal and KP Sharma Oli to figure out the likely composition of the next government in Kathmandu. Soon after it became apparent that the election was headed towards a hung parliament, external powers started raising their interests regarding the government formation process in Nepal, and, as always, India’s curiosity was particularly piqued.

Arindam Bagchi, spokesperson at the Ministry of External Affairs, said at a recent media briefing that India looks forward to working with the new government. 

“India and Nepal have a very special relationship, and we will continue to have this very close relationship with whichever government the people of Nepal choose.” Over the past few years, India has been maintaining a ‘hands-off or call it low profile’ approach on Nepal’s internal political affairs, and Bagchi’s remarks suggest as much. But, some officials say this approach of India towards Nepal has provided space for Beijing and Washington to meddle in internal political affairs of Nepal. Multiple sources that ApEx spoke to say New Delhi’s first preference is the continuation of the current coalition government led by Nepali Congress (NC). If that doesn't work out, it wants an NC-led government with the CPN-UML as a key coalition partner. While India has officially spoken about Nepal’s electoral process, China and the US have so far remained silent, at least publicly. This silence on the part of Beijing and Washington, however, does not mean they are not interested. China, which has increased its political influence in Kathmandu, is also closely watching Nepal’s election process. Just before the elections, Chinese Vice Minister for Culture and Tourism Li Qun paid a five-day visit to Nepal. In the absence of its ambassador in Kathmandu, Beijing doesn’t want to miss out on the unfolding developments in its neighbor.  A source at China’s Ministry of Foreign Affairs says the new dispensation in Kathmandu should seek a balance between India and China, instead of taking a pro-Indian approach.  “Nepal should maintain its neutrality while dealing with major powers, and it should keep China in high priority,” says the source. As the chances of leftist parties coming together appear slim, Beijing’s message seems as though it doesn’t have any preference regarding the government formation process and, at the same time, filled with expectation that India and other major powers should not meddle in Nepal’s internal  affairs. Beijing is expected to dispatch a senior official in coming weeks in order to brief Nepal’s major parties about its core interests. China is wary about the growing US influence in Kathmandu.  Washington, meanwhile, prefers a non-communist government in Kathmandu  to advance its interests. The superpower is closely following Nepal’s election process. Anil Sigdel, a US-based foreign policy expert, says the US respects the verdict of Nepali voters and will work with the new government and parliament. “Since the US has already recalibrated and widened its engagement with Nepal in the growingly challenging situation in South Asia, emergence of a new equation in Nepali politics, especially one that carries a slightly anti-American tone, will continue to test American diplomacy in Nepal in the days ahead.” Sigdel adds that a democratic practice of regular and free and fair elections in which citizens can vote for their choice of representatives is a major policy priority of the US.The fact that Nepal has successfully conducted its national elections is already a welcome development for the US. Since the Nepali Congress, a liberal democratic party, has come out as the largest force, the left forces remain fragmented and several new faces have been elected in this election, Sigdel reckons a government of coalition with different interests will most likely work out a common ground to move forward in a democratic way. This arrangement of coalition, Sigdel adds, will provide the US with a space to continue its partnership with Nepal.  Due to growing geopolitical tensions, all big powers want Nepal to have a government conducive to them. This way they can not only push their interests in Kathmandu, but also counter the influence of their rivals.