Rajapaksas in Lanka, Deubas, Olis and Dahals in Nepal

In the past few days the parallels between Nepal and Sri Lanka have been endlessly drawn. Many fear that if our political class does not soon mend its self-serving ways, people here too could take things into their hands. We have been there before. After all, weren’t anti-monarchy protesters in 2006 uncomfortably close to storming the royal palace? Who knows what might have happened had King Gyanendra refused to step down on time? A common gripe among Nepalis is that while they forced out one monarch, multiple monarchs have taken his place. This is one cliché that increasingly rings true.

Although these ‘new monarchs’ have been elected to office, they act as entitled as the erstwhile Shah kings. Ditto with their lack of accountability, vulgar opulence, and complete disregard for their people. The public perception of the government took a beating during the previous tenure of KP Sharma Oli as prime minister (most notably, when he twice dissolved the elected house). As Sher Bahadur Deuba completes a year in office, overseeing a brazenly corrupt and unaccountable administration, public faith in elected leaders has further dipped.

Meanwhile, Nepal’s economic woes continue to deepen with a steady loss in value of the Nepali rupee against the dollar, rampant inflation and import controls. If its politicians don’t get their act together, sooner or later, Nepal, again like its South Asian cousin, could also start seeing crippling shortages of food and other daily essentials. The signs are ominous. Until this week the person in charge of Nepal's finances was running the Ministry of Finance as his personal fief—à la Sri Lanka’s “Mr 10 Percent” Basil Rajapaksa. 

Like Basil’s elder brothers, Mahinda and Gotabaya, Nepali leaders are wont to accumulate more and more power. Instead of dismantling the centralized structure—when former PM Oli brought vital state institutions like the National Vigilance Center and the Department of Revenue Investigation under the PMO—Deuba was happy to milk the consolidated system to his benefit. In the name of ‘coalition compulsions’ there have been all kinds of unholy give-and-take. Electoral seats were ‘adjusted’ to accommodate the kith and kin of top leaders. Tax rates were tweaked for the benefit of the already filthy-rich conglomerates. Taxpayer money was haphazardly spent on vanity projects like view towers. 

Senior Sri Lankan economist Nisha Arunatilake tells ApEx that extreme politicization of Sri Lanka’s institutions had resulted in “improper appointments in leadership positions… mismanagement, corruption, lack of transparency and accountability”. Moreover, constant personnel changes in state institutions and tweaking the number of ministries to suit individuals reduced the efficiency of government processes. Such a weak system could not withstand the shock of the Covid-19 pandemic. The war in Ukraine was the final nail in the coffin of the Rajapaksas’ monolithic state.

All these maladies of the island state sound eerily similar to Nepal’s own recent troubles. It will be foolish to continue with business-as-usual in the face of an approaching disaster. As Arunatilake counsels, “The main lesson [from Sri Lanka] is not to wait until you are in a crisis to fight for change.”