The executive head is ailing. PM KP Oli faces an uncertain recovery at the Tribhuvan University Teaching Hospital after a successful kidney transplant, his second. Next three months will be critical, as his body could still reject the new kidney in this time. The country he leads isn’t doing much better either. Its economy has been battered by the ever-growing fear of the entry of the dreaded coronavirus that has spread around the world from next-door China. A lot hinges on Oli’s recovery and the state’s handling of the coronavirus scare.

The ruling Nepal Communist Party remains bitterly divided nearly two years after the formal unity between the CPN-UML and the Maoists. Pushpa Kamal Dahal has never had to play second fiddle to anyone in the past three decades. But as a part of the party unification package deal, Dahal was forced into an uncomfortable compromise with Oli. As the undisputed leader of the NCP, Oli had slowly started consolidating power, both in the party and in the government. Now Dahal is getting antsy again. If he cannot be the prime minister right away, he would like to lock in the chairman’s position going into the general convention next April. Should Oli’s health remain iffy—or worse—Dahal will look to take complete control. 

He won’t have it easy though. The one-time Maoist supremo will face a tough competition from ex-UML leaders who have never accepted Dahal as their chairman. But if Oli recovers well, all bets will be off, as he will again look to bolster his own claim for continued party leadership. Mischief-makers like Bamdev Gautam will get less room to play in that case. 

Oli’s course of recovery will also have a direct ramification on whether the parliament endorses the MCC compact. The MCC folks in Kathmandu are having sleepless nights as Oli remains hospitalized; they are not banking on Dahal to see the project through. The Chinese may not be that perturbed at the prospect of Dahal becoming prime minister again. The Indians for their part will see political turmoil in Nepal as an opportunity to install their loyalists in the government, possibly with American help.  

Meanwhile, even though no case of coronavirus has been reported in the country, the economy has still been hit hard as people are avoiding places with even a little crowd. If corona is detected tomorrow—which cannot be ruled out as the number of positives continue to rise in India—there could be a virtual curfew on the streets. In the absence of masks and medicines, panic will quickly spread. Once again, the biggest threats to Nepal emanate from outside the country.  

But potentially destabilizing forces inside are as potent. The re-appointment of Yubaraj Khatiwada as finance minister has sent shock waves among the business community, as was reflected in the recent stock-market bloodbath. The economy is effectively rudderless at the hands of this cerebral finance minister who seems intent on charting his own socialist fiscal course. His questionable appointments notwithstanding, PM Oli will hopefully recover soon and take over the reins, and the worst of uncertainties can be avoided. The country is unstable even with him firmly in the fray. Without him, it will be anarchy.