Perhaps the only person who is definitely happy with the federal government’s 11-point agreement with CK Raut’s secessionist party is Prime Minister KP Sharma Oli. Forget the main opposition Nepali Congress, Oli didn’t even consult senior leaders in his own party before he signed the agreement. There has thus been vociferous opposition of the ‘hush-hush’ and ‘ambiguous’ agreement, even from within the ruling Nepal Communist Party. Congress has repeatedly asked PM Oli to come clean on it, as have the two main Madhesi parties.

 

Even Raut seems to be in a dilemma whether to talk up the agreement. In a way, Raut wants to have his cake and eat it too. Had he not realized the futility of the quest for an independent Madhes through extra-constitutional means, he would not have signed it. But having done so, he also does not want to lose his core support base comprising Madhesi youths mesmerized by his larger-than-life per­sona and the radical solutions to Madhesi marginalization he offered over the years. As it is, these youths won’t be amused by the agreement with Oli, who was until recently projected as Mad­hes’s ‘Enemy number 1’.

To get Raut to agree to such vague terminology is a political victory for Oli

But nor does Raut want to violate the agree­ment with the govern­ment by saying some­thing incendiary. He rather seems intent on biding his time: to gauge the public pulse, weigh India’s response and explore political options. Either way, he is fighting an uphill battle. With the field of mainstream Mad­hesi politics already crowded, open politics will not be easy for Raut, whether or not he sticks to his referendum agenda on the final status of Madhes.

 

Many political analysts have been critical of PM Oli for what they suspect is his tacit agreement for a referendum in Madhes, which, they say, is reflected in the ambiguous second point of the 11-point accord that seems to leave open the prospect of a referendum. But then, just to get Raut to agree to such vague terminology, with no clear promises, is a political victory for Oli. It has stolen the thunder of the firebrand revolutionary that was CK Raut, and turned him into just another opportunistic politician in the Madhesi eyes.

 

Some Madhesi intellectuals are against the government’s agreement with Raut, which they see as kicking the Madhesi radicalism can down the road. But if Oli’s goal was to diffuse the threat of secession, however big or small, or at least to reduce its appeal as a viable option among the Madhesi youth, he has succeeded.