No foreign policy expert from either India or Nepal that this correspondent talked to believed India and Pakistan would go to a full-blown war, even as tensions have considerably risen following the terrorist attacks in Jammu and Kashmir last week. “No doubt things are going to escalate. We do not know how India will retaliate,” says Brookings India’s Constantino Xavier (See interview this week). But “I do not see a possibility of war.”
Nepali analysts like Nishchalnath Pandey of the Center for South Asian Studies in Kathmandu, a private think-tank, and Indra Adhikari of the Institute of Foreign Affairs, a government one, also doubt there will be a large-scale war. What is interesting though is that all three analysts believe recent developments will further weaken SAARC, an organization that was already stuck in limbo after India refused to take part in the 2016 summit slated for Islamabad.
In Xavier’s reckoning, the mounting Indo-Pak tensions will naturally make India pursue alternative regional connectivity projects like BIMSTEC and BBIN that do not include Pakistan and downplay the utility of an organization like SAARC, which includes Pakistan, as “Pakistan has consistently blocked the way” to regional cooperation via SAARC. Xavier believes SAARC is not the only game in town.
Pandey has a slightly different take. “Yes, SAARC is already dysfunctional,” he says. “However, it has at least provided a platform for leaders of member countries to meet and have free and frank discussion.” Not just that. As Nepal is the current chair of SAARC, “it’s our responsibility to ensure that even at a time like this regional cooperation endeavors aren’t left in the doldrums”.
Adhikari of the IFA also rules out an all-out war. But she says pressure could mount on Nepal to pick sides. “Forced to make a choice, the sentiment will naturally be in favor of India,” she adds. “Nepal and India are treaty allies, our soldiers serve in the Indian army and we depend on India for so much.”
Yet she is confident that even in the event of a war, Nepal won’t be coerced to choose sides. “India never consulted us during its previous wars with Pakistan. There is no reason things should be different this time,” Adhikari says.
Unlike in India, there is still a huge constituency in Nepal that believes SAARC is still the best platform to deal with regional issues. As its current chair as well as the permanent host of its secretariat, Nepal will continue to fly the SAARC flag.
